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Post by the Scribe on Mar 30, 2020 8:44:02 GMT
So they give what amounts to a 2 trillion + tax cut to the wealthy and say it isn't a Republican problem? This has been a conservative driven idea since Reagan. What is it about the mindset of people that call themselves conservatives that they don't GET about what is going on with THEIR leadership? Why do they support these people? ans. because they have been so propagandized by their corporate whore republican leadership and the right wing noise machine that Hillary, Bernie, Bill and the Dems are evil and must be stopped when in fact the evil is the global elites and corporate elite who finance republican leadership, republican think tanks and FOX.
Let me remind turtlehead and his contardservatives of this warning from a real patriot for the working person:
Bernie Sanders: Cuts to services will follow tax cuts Mitch McConnell on Rising Deficit: ‘It’s Not a Republican Problem'The Fiscal Times Yuval Rosenberg,The Fiscal Times Tue, Oct 16 2:44 PM MST
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) speaks after the Republican weekly policy lunch on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., June 19, 2018. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts
The quotes: “It’s disappointing, but it’s not a Republican problem. It’s a bipartisan problem: unwillingness to address the real drivers of the debt by doing anything to adjust those programs to the demographics of America in the future.”
McConnell also called the failure to reform entitlements “the single biggest disappointment” of his time in Congress and said that, because of the popularity of the programs in question and the risk of a political backlash, entitlement reform likely has to come through bipartisan compromise. “I think it’s pretty safe to say that entitlement changes, which is the real driver of the debt by any objective standard, may well be difficult if not impossible to achieve when you have unified government,” he said.
The context: McConnell’s comments, in an interview with Bloomberg, come a day after the Treasury Department said that the deficit grew to $779 billion in fiscal 2018, up 17 percent from the year before.
It’s true that, as the population ages, Medicare and Social Security are the main drivers of projected long-term U.S. debt, along with rising interest payments.
At the same time, budget watchers note that the GOP tax cuts passed last year are expanding the deficit rather than paying for themselves, as Republicans claimed they would. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said recently that legislation enacted in fiscal 2018, including tax cuts and spending increases, would add $445 billion to next year’s deficit — or 46 percent of the projected total.
Democrats argue that it’s unfair to single out safety-net programs for blame — and to put them on the chopping block — when repeated tax cuts and unfunded wars have contributed mightily to the debt over the last 20 years.
Democratic leaders seized on McConnell’s comments as evidence that Republicans were pursuing an agenda aimed at shrinking the government by starving it of revenue via tax cuts for the rich and then slashing safety-net programs for low- and middle-income Americans. “It's gaslighting for the GOP to blow a $2 trillion hole in the deficit to give the rich a tax cut then suggest cutting Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid as the only fix for that new deficit,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer tweeted Tuesday.
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/mitch-mcconnell-rising-deficit-not-214450836.html How tax breaks help the rich
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Post by the Scribe on Mar 30, 2020 8:45:04 GMT
Republicans Ignore the Obvious Effect of Their Tax CutsThe Fiscal Times Yuval Rosenberg,The Fiscal Times 19 hours ago
President Trump, top administration officials and Republican congressional leaders claim that the rising deficit, which grew 17 percent to $779 billion in fiscal 2018, is not the result of their tax cuts.
They’ve acknowledged that they prioritized increased defense spending and said that they would tackle the deficit by targeting spending going forward. But they’ve ignored the effect of the tax cuts — and some other deficit-financed policies — while seeking to lay the blame for rising deficits on everything from natural disasters to Democratic spending priorities to social safety net programs. To wit:
“Excuse me. No. 1, I had to take care of our military. I had no choice but to do it, and I want to take care of our military. We had to do things that we had to do,” Trump told the Associated Press in an interview Tuesday. “Now we’re going to start bringing numbers down. We also have tremendous numbers with regard to hurricanes and fires and the tremendous forest fires all over. We had very big numbers, unexpectedly big numbers.”
“People are going to want to say the deficit is because of the tax cuts — that’s not the real story,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNN last week, arguing that Republicans went along with Democratic demands for increased non-defense spending in order to secure “very, very important” increases in defense outlays.
Mick Mulvaney, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, similarly sought to portray the issue as entirely about spending: “America’s booming economy will create increased government revenues — an important step toward long-term fiscal sustainability,” he said in a statement announcing the 2018 numbers. “But this fiscal picture is a blunt warning to Congress of the dire consequences of irresponsible and unnecessary spending. The President’s FY 2019 Budget presented a clear roadmap to solving this fiscal nightmare that has been exacerbated by Congress’s continual unwillingness to restrain spending.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) yesterday told Bloomberg that spending on entitlements was to blame for “very disturbing” growth in the national debt, ignoring the effect of the tax cuts. McConnell had said last year he didn’t think the tax changes would increase the deficit.
How the Tax Cuts Factor In
But Bloomberg reporter Steven Dennis noted in a Twitter thread that “the deficit would be shockingly close to zero today with Clinton-era tax levels.”
Federal revenue has fallen to 16.5 percent of gross domestic product, he writes. If it was still at roughly 20 percent of GDP (it topped out at 19.75 percent in 2000), the deficit would have been less than $100 billion. Granted, those final years of the Clinton administration coincided with the height of the dotcom bubble, but the broader point remains: The tax cuts of the past two decades are a big part of how the deficit reached $779 billion in 2018.
Dennis’ points echo a report issued by Senate Budget Committee Democrats arguing that tax cuts passed under Presidents George W. Bush and Trump “are responsible for over 80% of the deficit” and that, if not for Republican policies more broadly, the government would have posted a surplus in 2018.
Those arguments can and will be debated, and none of that tax talk diminishes the long-term shortfalls faced by Social Security and Medicare.
But if we’re going to have any semblance of a proper national debate on fiscal priorities — including a hard look at spending — we need to understand how we got to this point. Tax policy must be part of that discussion, especially as Republicans still hope to enact a second round of cuts. The truth, thus far at least, is that the tax cuts passed in 2017 have added to the deficit. “There are several ways to ask the question, ‘Are tax cuts paying for themselves?’” Jim Tankersley writes in The New York Times. “Based on the data we have right now, they all arrive at the same answer: ‘No.’”
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Post by the Scribe on Mar 30, 2020 8:46:24 GMT
Why the federal deficit is rising, despite economic growthPBS NewsHour Published on Oct 18, 2018 With the close of the government's fiscal year, numbers out this week show the federal budget deficit taking a 17 percent jump from 2017, despite significant economic growth. John Yang takes a closer look into the data and speaks with political correspondent Lisa Desjardins and David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, for analysis.
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Post by the Scribe on Mar 30, 2020 8:47:23 GMT
If you recall the crash of the stock market and economy happened rather slowly, bit by bit in 2008. If it has to crash it is better much of it happen now before too many people go to early vote. All it would take is a few more days like this before there is a selloff and panic. People are greedy and don't know when to get out or their stock managers keep them in and don't allow an automatic withdrawal. I was told to "keep my stock during the last crash. Don't pull out. Even if you lose the market will come back and you won't lose." Yeah right, if you wait for 8 years like now until the market drops again. Switch and put your money into cash or money market funds before you lose it. If not, watch closely what is going on. Everyone thought the last crash was a correction before it was a crash.Stocks plunge, Dow drops more than 300 points Emily McCormick 50 minutes ago Reactions Reblog on Tumblr Share Tweet Email US equities took a nosedive Tuesday, extending a rout in global stocks.
The Dow (^DJI) slid 1.31%, or 332.69 points, as of 1:01 p.m. ET, as major manufacturers Caterpillar and 3M posted disappointing financial results. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 1.32%, or 36.62 points. The Nasdaq (^IXIC) slipped 1.27%, or 94.19 points.
Typically, a company’s stock will fall when financial results disappoint. But what’s been notable about the current earnings season is that better-than-expected news isn’t cutting it either.
“Firms that ‘beat’ earnings expectations have underperformed the S&P 500 by ~40bp on announcement (>2.5std below avg), despite an above-average beat level (~3.4%),” UBS’s Keith Parker observed in a note to clients on Tuesday. This could be in part due to disappointing guidance, as many companies that beat on the top or bottom lines in third quarter have slashed future forecasts.
European and Asian stocks struggled Tuesday as geopolitical tensions weighed on overseas markets. The Stoxx 600 in Europe fell 1.44% to 354.56, after falling to its lowest level since December 2016 in early morning trading. The FTSE 100 declined 0.99% to 6972.81 points. Concerns on Brexit negotiations and friction between the European Union and Italy over the country’s budget deficit have weighed on sentiments. In Greater China, the Shanghai composite slid 2.26%, while the Shenzhen composite fell 1.92%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 2.67%.
Investors turned to safe haven investments, with prices of the Treasuries, gold and the yen rising during early trading Tuesday. Bond prices move inversely to yields.
This is a continuation of volatility seen throughout October. As of market close yesterday, the S&P 500 was down 6.26% from its October 3 intraday high of 2939.86 points.
The S&P 500’s closing prices year-to-date.
“The recent falls in US equity markets have brought huge waves of conspiracy theories about the reasons for the declines. The scapegoats are not earnings nor forward-looking indicators but simply that financial conditions have tightened,” Jefferies analyst Sean Darby wrote in a note. “The culprit for the sell-off? Financial conditions have tightened.”
Darby cited the combination of a strong dollar and rising US bond yields as headwinds to share prices.
STOCKS: Manufacturing stocks Caterpillar, 3M disappoint:
www.yahoo.com/news/stock-futures-tumble-dow-sheds-400-points-120653023.html
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Post by the Scribe on Mar 31, 2020 10:13:26 GMT
GET OUT OF THE MARKET NOW IF YOU CAN!!!MarketsStock Rout Erases 2018 Gains for S&P, Dow Indexes: Markets WrapBy Vildana Hajric and Sarah Ponczek October 23, 2018, 2:45 PM MST Updated on October 24, 2018, 1:28 PM MST www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-23/asia-stocks-look-mixed-as-late-u-s-rally-falters-markets-wrap
The sell-off in U.S. stocks accelerated, wiping out gains for the year in both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as mixed corporate earnings and weak housing data fueled anxiety that rising prices will crimp economic growth. Treasuries rallied for a second day on demand for haven assets.
The S&P extended its October rout to 8.8 percent, making it the worst month since February 2009. Disappointing earnings from AT&T and Texas Instruments drove declines in the communications and semiconductor groups, offsetting a promising outlook from Boeing. The Dow tumbled 600 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index lapsed into a correction.
“This is really off the walls,” said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at Newbridge Securities. “Nothing fundamentally changed during the day. I think it’s a technical breakdown. Look at the Nasdaq -- down 300 points.”
Amid the flood of earnings, economic data continued to underwhelm, particularly on the rate-sensitive housing front. New home sales sank again, sending battered homebuilders lower. Fragile market sentiment is also working through reports that potential bombs were sent to two former U.S. presidents and the New York headquarters of CNN.
While stellar earnings haven’t been enough to stem the sell-off equity bulls still point to a deluge of major reports still due this week as a reason for optimism. Microsoft delivered after the close Wednesday and its shares rallied 3.7 percent as of 4:15 p.m. in New York. Amazon.com, Alphabet and Intel headline megacap tech companies that report Thursday.
The Nasdaq plunged 4.4 percent for its biggest single-day slide since August 2011. The tech-heavy measure is now down 12 percent from an August record, meeting the accepted definition of a correction. The measure’s biggest components -- Apple, Amazon.com, Microsoft and Alphabet, which account for almost a quarter of the index by weighting -- have dragged it lower as investors grow increasingly concerned that outsize profit gains won’t be sustainable.
Sector rotation was on full display, with eight of the main S&P 500 industry groups falling -- and those, all by at least 2.7 percent. However, utilities gained 2.3 percent, and real estate and consumer staples companies also rose.
“Right now markets are still trying to reprice,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at the Independent Advisor Alliance. “What’s happening with earnings is exaggerating market moves.”
Elsewhere, European politics were also in focus, with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte doubling down on his government’s budget and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s cabinet descending into conflict. The pound weakened, and the region’s bonds rallied. The euro dropped following disappointing manufacturing data. Terminal readers can read more in our Markets Live blog.
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Post by the Scribe on Mar 31, 2020 10:16:32 GMT
The Trump stimulus is fizzling Rick Newman 6 hours ago Reactions Reblog on Tumblr Share Tweet Email Investors began 2018 with high hopes for a surge in business profits and stock prices. A sharp cut in the corporate tax rate signed by President Trump late last year — from 35% to 21% – all but guaranteed a juicy year for earnings.
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-stimulus-fizzling-190615613.html
Snapping Back, But Can Rally Attempt Last? Strong Earnings Might Power Market Benzinga JJ Kinahan,Benzinga 11 hours ago Reactions Reblog on Tumblr Share Tweet Email Stocks looked ready to snap back Thursday from Wednesday’s late collapse, but the question is whether any rally attempt can carry through to the closing bell.
Lately, it seems like every time the market tried to mount a recovery, sellers showed up late in the day to kick things back down. That doesn’t mean the same thing will happen this time, but it’s hard to blame investors if they feel skeptical about the stamina of this morning’s green numbers. Early morning rallies after a big sell-off are pretty common, but they don’t always last, and the rout isn’t necessarily over. Anyone trying to participate today should consider taking special care, especially in the first half hour.
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/snapping-back-rally-attempt-last-135532023.html
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Post by the Scribe on Mar 31, 2020 10:18:00 GMT
Quote by ronstadtfanaz: And who among us can say with a straight face that we are shocked? Maybe a #MAGA troll, but those people are suckers and s***heads, just like the son-of-a-b**ch they voted for.
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Post by the Scribe on Mar 31, 2020 10:19:12 GMT
Republicans Want to Make Entitlements the Next CaravanBloomberg Stephanie Kelton,Bloomberg 12 hours ago
Republicans Want to Make Entitlements the Next Caravan
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- When Republicans passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, they knew it was projected to add $1.5 trillion to budget deficits over the next 10 years. They did it anyway.
Many Democrats pointed out the hypocrisy of the GOP embracing budget deficits after purporting to decry them for so many years under President Barack Obama. Others warned that driving up the deficit was all part of a calculated plan to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
How are the Republicans trying to carry out that plan? Basically, by creating the fiscal equivalent of the migrant caravan.
After voting for the tax legislation, Arkansas Republican Steve Womack, chairman of the House Budget Committee, sounded the fiscal alarm. “The time is now for Congress to step up and confront the biggest challenge to our society,” he said. “There is not a bigger enemy on the domestic side than the debt and deficits.”
It does no good to remind Republicans that their tax cuts added trillions to future debt and deficits (nor does it matter all that much). They’re not having any of that. As Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell explained to Bloomberg last month, “It’s disappointing, but it’s not a Republican problem.” Entitlements, he said, are “the real drivers of the debt,” and the only way to deal with the looming crisis is “to adjust those programs to the demographics of America in the future.”
Ratcheting up the threat level is national security adviser John Bolton, who recently warned that entitlements are pushing the debt to unsustainable levels, where we will ultimately face “a national security consequence.”
Yes, Republicans want us to believe that entitlements — like the caravan of Central Americans headed toward the U.S. — are a creeping threat to our national security.
In the case of the caravan, most Democrats vigorously rejected the narrative. They called it out for what it was — a political stunt designed to garner support for military action to defend the border from a manufactured threat. When Republicans make the case for cutting entitlements in the name of defending our nation from fiscal ruin, Democrats should respond with the same skepticism. The whole thing is a hoax.
The problem is that instead of countering the Republican narrative with unassailable facts, Democrats are helping to cement the idea that there is a fiscal caravan.
By telling voters that Republicans want to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid to “pay for” their tax cuts, Democrats are unwittingly lending credibility to the idea that cutting entitlements is one way to escape a fiscal dilemma.
Here’s what they should be saying instead.
First, there is no long-run fiscal crisis — the Republicans are making it up. They rely on the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term budget outlook to create the caravan effect. By focusing on the blue line in the chart below, Republicans claim that programs like Social Security and Medicare have us on an unsustainable trajectory.
As Stephen Goss, the chief actuary of the Social Security Administration, has shown, the blue line assumes that the federal government will begin borrowing to cover shortfalls once the trust funds for Social Security and Medicare Part A are depleted. There’s just one problem — it can’t happen under current law.
Under the law, “because there is no borrowing authority, there is really a hard stop,” said Goss. That means that the blue line is really a red herring. According to Goss, the black line paints the more accurate fiscal trajectory.
Henry Aaron, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, agrees:
If one excludes deficits in Social Security and Medicare Hospital Insurance that cannot occur under current law and established policy, the ratio of national debt to gross domestic product will fall, not rise, as CBO budget projections indicate. In other words, the claim that drastic cuts in government spending are necessary to avoid calamitous budget deficits is bogus.
The second fact Democrats should expose is even simpler and more powerful. To make it, all they have to do is repeat after Alan Greenspan.
The exchange, which took place in March 2005 at a House Budget Committee session, is a little wonky, so let me break it down. To try to get Greenspan, who was the Federal Reserve chairman at the time, to support privatizing Social Security, Republican Representative Paul Ryan begins by describing the program as insecure. Danger — caravan — ahead!
Instead of agreeing with Ryan’s premise, Greenspan (under oath) rejects it outright. Here’s the critical part of the exchange:
Paul Ryan: “Do you believe that personal retirement accounts can help us achieve solvency for the system and make those future retiree benefits more secure?”
Alan Greenspan: “Well, I wouldn’t say that pay-as-you-go benefits are insecure, in the sense that there’s nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The question is, how do you set up a system which assures that the real assets are created which those benefits are employed to purchase.”
Greenspan made two critical observations. First, he explained that keeping promises to future beneficiaries is entirely a matter of political will. Unlike a household, Congress can never run out of money.
That means Congress can always decide to make up any shortfall once the trust funds are exhausted. They just need to modify their own law to make it possible. So the blue line could become a reality, but it can’t lead to a debt crisis.
Second, Greenspan tried to get us to focus on a potentially legitimate risk — inflation. He knew that as baby boomers leave the workforce and move into retirement, they’re leaving behind fewer and fewer workers to produce the goods and services that all of us will want to consume in the years and decades ahead. The number of workers per retiree is expected to drop to 2:1 by 2035, from 3:1 in 2015.
Greenspan knows Congress can always meet its financial obligation to future retirees, but he’s concerned about what those benefit checks will be able to purchase. If tomorrow’s workers aren’t productive enough, then we could end up with an inflation problem as seniors compete with workers for a dwindling supply of real goods and services.
Democrats should be challenging Republicans to support the kinds of policies that will boost future productivity and ensure an adequate supply of labor — investments in education, infrastructure, R&D and immigration reform. To do that, they have to stop getting pulled into a blame game with Republicans over the cause of the so-called fiscal crisis. That caravan is a hoax.
In my next column, I’ll discuss an issue that really does amount to an entitlement program, the interest on the federal debt, even though no one looks at it that way. Pundits are panicking over these costs, too. Are their fears justified — or overblown?
To contact the author of this story: Stephanie Kelton at stephanie.kelton@stonybrook.edu
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Katy Roberts at kroberts29@bloomberg.net
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Stephanie Kelton is a professor of public policy and economics at Stony Brook University. She was the Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders.
For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/republicans-want-entitlements-next-caravan-140017849.html
©2018 Bloomberg L.P.
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Post by the Scribe on Mar 31, 2020 10:20:38 GMT
Stocks could keep falling, here's whyFox Business Jennifer Schonberger Fox BusinessNovember 23, 2018
It’s been an ugly holiday week so far for stocks erasing annual gains for the major averages after investors continue to unload what had been market leaders: large cap tech.
Since record closes in September, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have tumbled quickly and are flirting with correction territory, or a 10% drop from recent highs, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is already in a correction and not too far from a bear market.
Still, there is a broader negative narrative driving the market lower, fueled by expectations for declining corporate earnings growth and concerns about slowing economic growth, despite a strong job market and data that supports further economic expansion. Investors are also nervous about Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, trade negotiations with China, a bumpy Brexit and the outlook that 2019 will be politically contentious in the U.S. with no new stimulus coming.
Craig Johnson, chief market technician for Piper Jaffray, thinks the market is in the beginning stages of a washout. He says it typically takes nearly nine-and-a-half weeks to rebound from that type of market drop.
“The shake out isn’t done yet…Santa is not coming this year kids,” Johnson said of the typical year-end so-called Santa Claus rally that typically happens around the holidays. “But I don’t think the secular bull market is over.” Johnson says the S&P 500 would need to break below a level of 2500 to 2580 for the bull market to be in question from a technical standpoint. That would be about a 5.6 percent pullback from current levels.
FOX Business takes a deeper look at the top headwinds for U.S. stocks.
U.S.-China negotiations on trade
Investors are watching U.S. trade negotiations with China with a close eye on President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi at the G20 in Buenos Aires at the end of the month. Jitters over trade have resurfaced after the U.S. and China clashed over trade last weekend at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, casting doubt over whether Washington and Beijing can at least get a trade cease-fire at the G20. As FOX Business reports, President Trump and his top advisors including Larry Kudlow are keeping the pressue on the Chinese to make a deal that benefits America.
BREXIT
Britain is due to leave the European Union at the end of next March, regardless of whether or not there is a deal. EU Article 50 provides automatic withdrawal by that date unless a unanimous agreement is made to extend the timetable. If no deal is made, a complicated and disorderly process would ensue. Investors are growing weary a deal will be made.
Earlier this month, British and EU officials reached a draft agreement on Brexit. Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May was able to get her cabinet to approve the deal. But the deal has led to resignations by British ministers, including the Brexit minister, and numerous objections by the UK parliament, which must ratify the deal.
May’s Conservative Party doesn’t have a majority in the House of Commons and the lawmakers in her party oppose her plans to leave the EU. May will be forced to rely on votes from members of the British Parliament who don’t support her and don’t want to leave the EU. Her plan closely ties the U.K. to the EU for years after it formally quits the bloc, which could hurt Britain’s ability to negotiate trade deals with other countries and gives the EU the final word on a hard border in Ireland.
“Bank of England Chief Mark Carney better hope the transition goes smoothly because he's got nothing on his end in dealing with any negative economic fallout,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer for Bleakley Advisory Group.
Corporate debt ballooning stokes default fears
Banks were up to their ears in debt leading up to the financial crisis and when the economy went south the banks did too. Now investors are closely watching for high debt levels in individual companies, such as battered General Electric, that have been on a borrowing spree fueled by cheap money.
“The canary in the coal mine this business cycle it will be a corporate default,” said Joe LaVorgna, Chief Economist for Natixis. “It will be someone not meeting an interest payment when someone thought they would. That in turn could hurt confidence, which could depress growth.”
Story Continues:
finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-could-keep-falling-apos-144130575.html p3
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 5, 2020 5:28:17 GMT
Don't look at your 401K today. We are on a slow crawl down but it is definitely down. Once again, take your gains, get out of the market and put your money in a safe place for the moment. If we do find ourselves in another crash like the 2008 Republiconservative Depression will you have another 10 years to gain back what you lost? Think about it.Dow closes down 800 points as U.S.-China trade, flattening yield curve spook investorsMarketWatch Sue Chang,MarketWatch 1 hour 6 minutes ago
U.S. stocks finished sharply lower Tuesday, logging their worst day in nearly a month, as skepticism mounted over the significance of an agreement reached by the U.S. and China to postpone new tariffs and as the market digested a flattening yield curve in U.S. government debt. The market will be closed Wednesday as the nation stops to mourn former President George H.W. Bush, who died Friday at 94. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sank 799.36 points, or 3.1%, to 25,027.07, while the S&P 500 index (SPX) dropped 90.31 points, or 3.2%, to 2,700.06. ... Read more www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-drop-100-points-as-doubts-over-us-china-trade-deal-emerge-2018-12-04?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo This chart is way scarier than the Dow plunging more than 800 points Brian Sozzi 3 hours ago
Close that Yahoo Finance Dow Jones Industrial Average chart for a second and pull up one of the financials if you want a good scare on the economy.
The Dow (^DJI) plunged more than 800 points on Tuesday amid concerns over an inverted yield curve (it usually predicts a recession), mixed messages on President Donald Trump’s trade deal at the G20 and ongoing fears on Apple’s outlook. But it’s the continued weakness in financials that should be a cause for concern among any bull looking to get long in a seemingly oversold market.
All 67 stocks in the S&P Financials Index declined on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg data. Regional banks led the way down. The financials were the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 (^GSPC). Goldman Sachs plumbed fresh 52-week lows.
“Financials are currently sitting right around an important level of short-term support,” cautioned SunTrust chief markets strategist Keith Lerner.
Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo shares year-to-date. The messages from the financials are numerous. For one, it could suggest banks are being hurt more than expected in the fourth quarter from the U.S. housing slowdown. Severe pressure on auto sales is unlikely helping banks, either. And finally, with trade uncertainty lingering companies could decide to put off M&A much to the dismay of investment banks.
The upside from the volatility? Higher trading sales for the big banks. But Wall Street seems to care less about that, for now.
Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @briansozzi
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 5, 2020 5:52:48 GMT
The Glenn10 hours ago all Social Security needs to do is raise the income cap, up from $128,400.00, and just through the magic of automatic draft deduction, our Social Security Funds shortfall will disappear. All these articles seem designed, to obfuscate and divert attention from an issue that the powers to be do not want to deal with: the wealthiest pay into Social Security, a mere, Infinitesimal fraction, of their income, while everyone else, pays based on their entire income. I know a quite wealthy individual, who personally earns multiple millions of dollars a year (7 to 15 million a year personal income, not the total his business does. he told me, depending on how good business is.), has health problems, sometimes running into 3-4 hundred thousands of dollars, in medical bills a year. His income goes into his wife`s name, or a trust, on paper, I`m sure "it`s all legal", but the ethics and fairness of it stinks to high heaven, he is penniless, and gets all his medical issues paid for by State and Federal programs. The continued attempts by the wealthy, to use their controlled media and government representatives, to distract the average Joe, from a very simple, unavoidable fact, they pay into Social Security, taxes a miniscule portion of their income, ($128,400.00 is a Broadway show, drinks and a good meal, to alot of these people) while Average Joe, pays on all, his income: literally the ultimate in Class Warfare. There would be, NO Social Security budget shortfall problems, if the wealthy paid in at the same per-cent of income as the rest of us do, as in all, our income, what`s good for the goose, should be good for the gander, especially, in mandated, social and economic programs in the Land of the Free and Home of the Brave, where all men are created equal.TRUMPUBLICONSERVATIVE TAX CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY HAVE PROVEN TO BE BULLSHIT. BY THE END OF THE YEAR, IF REPUBLICONSERVATIVES MAINTAIN CONTROL OF CONGRESS WATCH THEM DO EVERYTHING IN THEIR POWER TO CUT SOCIAL WELFARE AND ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS INCLUDING SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE. THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPROVEMENT IN HEALTHCARE AS COSTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
VOTE IN NOVEMBER Politics VP Mike Pence on Social Security: "Everything Has to Be on the Table"Motley Fool Sean Williams, The Motley Fool,Motley Fool Sat, Dec 8 6:06 AM MST finance.yahoo.com/news/vp-mike-pence-social-security-130600159.html Social Security is an indispensable resource for tens of millions of retired seniors. According to data from the Social Security Administration, more than 3 out of 5 of today's retirees lean on their monthly payout to provide at least half of their income. Without this guaranteed check, elderly poverty rates would almost certainly soar.
And yet, despite its importance, Social Security is facing what could arguably be described as its biggest challenge in eight decades.
Beginning in 2018, and continuing in each subsequent year, Social Security will expend more than it collects in revenue, per the latest annual Trustees report. Although these net cash outflows will start off relatively small, they're expected to pick up steam rapidly as demographic changes continue to work against the program. By 2034, it's projected that Social Security will have completely exhausted the nearly $2.9 trillion in net cash surpluses built up since inception. Should this happen, a benefit cut of up to 21% may await then-current and future retirees. It's not a promising forecast.
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 5, 2020 5:53:40 GMT
Every Democrat predicted this. Trickle down has never worked and it won't work this time. It is a Republiconservative scam. Reagan, Bush 1, Bush II and now Trump have cut taxes to primarily benefit the wealthy yet right wing idiots keep repeating this nonsense. While Trump is right on tariffs he went about it all wrong. Tax cuts (for the middle class and none for the wealthy) should come later, not first as should other economic reforms. Free trade should have been replaced with Fair Trade. Any reductions need to come first from the BLACK BUDGET, then the MILITARY.The Trump tax cuts are putting America in a hole Rick Newman 10 hours ago
President Donald J Trump celebrates the six month anniversary of his tax cut at the White House last year. Credit: Patsy Lynch/MediaPunch /IPX
Tax cuts and a slowing economy will erode America’s fiscal strength during the next decade, according to a new report from Moody’s Investor Service, the bond-rating agency. At some point, Moody’s might cut the nation’s top-tier credit rating.
The Moody’s warning challenges a core promise of President Trump and his fellow Republicans, who insisted the $1.5 trillion tax cut they passed last year would pay for itself and even generate more tax revenue, not less, because economic growth would suddenly boom. Trump predicted last year that the economy would “take off like a rocket ship” once his tax cuts went into effect. White House economists predicted family incomes would rise by $4,000 or more due to a sharp cut in business taxes.
None of that is happening or coming into view. The economy grew at a robust 4.2% in the second quarter, the highest level since 2014. But Moody’s Analytics predicts growth of just 2.9% for all of 2018, and 2019 as well. It will then fall to 0.9%, according to the forecasting firm. If so, economic growth under Trump would average just 2.2% per year, almost exactly the same as during President Obama’s second term.
The federal budget deficit, meanwhile, rose from 3.5% of GDP in 2017 to 3.8% in 2018. Moody’s expects it to hit 4.8% of GDP in the current fiscal and soar to 8% by 2028. The U.S. fiscal debt burden is the heaviest among nations that earn Moody’s Aaa rating, its highest.
Corporate profits are surging--but tax revenue from businesses is going the other direction.
When the economy’s strong, as it is now, the government’s debt burden normally declines rather than spiking. That’s because businesses and individuals earn more money and therefore pay more taxes. But the Trump tax cuts have weakened revenue intake, pushing deficits up.
Tax revenue from businesses fell by 31% in fiscal 2018, which ended in September. That decline mostly came from cutting the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. Tax revenue from individuals rose by 6.1% in 2018, but that was mostly because of inflation, population growth and 1.7 million new jobs created during 2018.
The deficit rose from $666 billion in 2017, before the tax cuts, to $779 billion in 2018, when the tax cuts had been in effect for eight months. The deficit is likely to approach $1 trillion this year, an unprecedented gap for an economy that’s supposedly booming. During the late 1990s and early 2000s, unemployment was roughly as low as it is now, but the government ran a budget surplus for four years in a row.
“The United States’ fiscal strength is set to gradually decline from 2019 onward,” Moody’s Analysts wrote in the report. “A persistent widening of fiscal deficits will push the federal debt and interest burdens to historic levels, which will ultimately weigh on the sovereign credit profile.”
The gap between government spending and revenue is growing historically large. Moody’s sees several risks from mushrooming deficits. Interest payments on the debt are likely to rise from 7% of all federal outlays in 2017, before the tax cuts, to 16% in 2028. That leaves less money for defense, roads, student loans and everything else. It also raises pressure to reform and possibly cut spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which are headed for their own solvency problems during the next couple of decades.
Back in 2011, Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S. credit rating by one notch. Some analysts thought Uncle Sam would have to pay more to borrow as a result, but that didn’t happen. As a borrower, the United States enjoys unique, privileged status thanks to the dollar’s role as the world’s preferred currency, which keeps demand for U.S. Treasuries strong and interest rates low.
But privilege can backfire, if it breeds sloppy habits and excess. Moody’s says it will “revisit” its U.S. credit rating—in other words, downgrade Uncle Sam—if “policymakers do not have the capacity to respond decisively to mitigate the country’s adverse fiscal dynamics.” Right now, they seem to have no such capacity.
Confidential tip line: rickjnewman@yahoo.com. Click here to get Rick’s stories by email.
Read more:
Trump shows the perils of a businessman-president
Stocks are headed for the worst year since Obama
A recession is coming–but this isn’t it
Trump’s trade war will drift into 2019
Trump’s Russia connections are getting clearer
Trump has the GM problem backward
Trump’s tax-cut party is officially over
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-tax-cuts-putting-america-203051912.html
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 5, 2020 5:54:42 GMT
THE BLACK BUDGET - A CONSPIRACY THEORY TURNED OUT TO BE TRUEAvatar ALEKSANDAR MISHKOV/ published 3 years ago
The Black Budget - A Conspiracy Theory turned out to be true
THE BLACK BUDGET IS ESSENTIALLY A SECRET BUDGET THAT IS PART OF THE MONEY THAT THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE RECEIVES EVERY YEAR. HOWEVER, THE MONEY FROM THE BLACK BUDGET ARE NEVER DETAILED IN THE REPORTS BY THE DEPARTMENT. IN 2013, WHEN THE CONSPIRACY THEORY WAS PROVEN RIGHT, THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE RECEIVED UP TO $2.6 TRILLION IN TRANSACTIONS. OF THOSE, MORE THAN $50 BILLION GO IN THE BLACK BUDGET AND ARE BEING USED FOR FINANCING SECRET AND SPY AGENCIES, NEW MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES AND MUCH MORE. There have conspiracy theories about what is thought to be a budget financing secret military operations since 2007, when the US Government first started releasing documents of the money spent by the intelligence agencies. However, since the government released just the raw numbers and the sum amount, never the details, the conspiracies started growing. The black budget was successfully hidden and not investigated for years. That all changed in 2013, when a former contractor for the NSA leaked documents showing proof that the Budget is real. Even with all those information leaked, many people in the United States in the World are unaware of what the Black Budget is.
The Black Budget
The Black Budget is essentially a secret budget that is part of the money that the department of defense receives every year. However, the money from the Black Budget are never detailed in the reports by the department. In 2013, when the conspiracy theory was proven right, the department of defense received up to $2.6 trillion in transactions. Of those, more than $50 billion go in the Black Budget and are being used for financing secret and spy agencies, new military technologies and much more.
Simply put, the Black Budget is the illusory accounting of what the Government spends on intelligence gathering, secret military research, weapon programs and covert operations. Just for comparison, the Black Budget hits around $50 billion per year, which is more than what the US Government spends for education
Some of the major agencies that are part of the Black Budget are CIA, the National Security Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the military R&D.
The numbers of the budget are reserved and revealed to only a select few members of the Congress committee. Sometimes, even those members are not allowed to see the numbers.
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Weapons financed by the Black Budget
The amount of weapons and technology that is financed by the Black Budget cannot be covered in just one article, given the fact the summary of the budget requires more than 100 pages. However, let’s take a look at some of the more popular and known weapons and technologies financed by the Black Budget.
One of the biggest controversies is HAARP, the high frequency program and the technology behind it. Officially, HAARP is a scientific program that is designed to understand the ionosphere. Unofficially, it is a weapon that many suspect the US Military uses to generate low frequency waves that can cause earthquakes and other “natural disasters”. The program was operational for several years, and in 2014 the US Air Force announced that it will shut it down. However, the shutdown was postponed for May 2015, and it is still unknown when it will happen. Latest reports are that the Military will start dismantling the facility in the middle of June.
Another interesting theory is that the military has founded technology that allows microwaves to be used as weapons. Microwaves are considered to be the next evolution of non-lethal weapons that are capable of preventing voluntary muscular movements, produce sleep, control emotions, and interfere with memory. While it looks like the weapons are non-lethal, they can be quite dangerous.
In the documents that were published by Edward Snowden, there is evidence that the US Military developed Flame and Stuxnet, two malware programs that made its way to the digital world. The program was jointly funded by the US and Israel.
Last, but not least, the Black Budget also covers Microwave Cell Phone Towers. Cell Phone towers pop up all over the US, and many underestimate the effect that it has on the health of the population. And while cell phone towers are dangerous because of the radiation, there are some people that think that the US Military might use them in an even more dangerous approach. Ken Adachi, is a professor that explains that the towers could be used for tracking activities, as well as mind control. While mind control is a bit far-fetched to be plausible, tracking activities is nothing new.
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Snowden reveals the conspiracy
In an article published by the Washington Post in August 2013, the Black Budget was revealed. The article contained a leaked document by Edward Snowden, who was a former National Security Agency contractor. His saga began in June, when he decided to go public with classified documents.
In the documents, Snowden revealed that a “Tailored Access Operations” is actually a high secret NSA program that collects intelligence about foreign targets. The program does so by hacking computers and cell phones, stealing data and monitoring their communications.
Another point that Snowden revealed is how the intelligence community provides policymakers with strategic information. According to the documents, one of the first priorities of the intelligence community is to provide strategic intelligence and advance notice of major events to the policymakers.
Snowden first revealed the documents to two journalists, Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras. He revealed the secrets in Hong Kong, where he asked the journalists to join him. Just days after the documents were published, the US Department of Justice charged Snowden with counts of violating the Espionage Act and stealing government property. He then flew to Moscow, and still hasn’t returned to the US.
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Black Budget in Numbers
In 2013, Snowden revealed just a small portion of the Black Budget. The documents revealed just the numbers for 2013, not the entire program. However, even the numbers for 2013 are astonishing, and here are some of them.
- $52.6 billion, the amount of money that the US government had planned for the fiscal 2013.
- 176 pages, the summary of the budget written for the National Intelligence Program, with details of every success and failure during the fiscal year
- 16 spy agencies are part of the black budget. They make up the US intelligence community
- 107,035 is the number of employees that benefit from the Black Budget. The budget covers the whole US Intelligence community that employs 107,035 people.
www.documentarytube.com/articles/the-black-budget--a-conspiracy-theory-turned-out-to-be-true
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 5, 2020 5:55:35 GMT
Homeless numbers increase under TrumpWhen referring to a new report that shows homelessness increased under the Trump administration, Dr. Ben Carson, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said, “This is not a federal problem – it’s everybody’s problem.”
According to the report, straight from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the homeless population has risen for the first time since the Great Recession.
The agency released its annual Point in Time count Wednesday, Dec. 6, revealing that the nation’s homeless population increased this year for the first time since 2010.
The study has found that 553,742 people were homeless on a single night this year, a 0.7% increase over last year.
The report is a prime indicator that although the strong stock market may be lining the pockets of Wall Street tycoons and major corporations, the poorest Americans are still struggling to meet their most basic needs.U.S. Homelessness Edges Higher Again After Seven Years of DeclinesLack of affordable housing fuels the problem in major cities, though L.A. makes progress
A person sleeps in a New York City subway station. Homelessness nationwide has risen in the past two years, reversing a trend. PHOTO: RICHARD B. LEVINE/ZUMA PRESS
By Laura Kusisto and Nour Malas Dec. 17, 2018 12:01 a.m. ET
Homelessness nudged higher in 2018 for the second consecutive year, as cities struggled to get people off the streets even as many ramped up building and poured millions of dollars into potential solutions.
The increase was slight—just 0.3%, according to an annual report to Congress by the Department of Housing and Urban Development to be released Monday. But after seven years of declines, the small rises over the past two years are a troubling reversal at a time when unemployment is at a near 50-year-low and wages are rising.
“There is a critical shortage of affordable rental housing in every jurisdiction across the country,” said Barbara Poppe, who oversaw the federal response to homelessness under President Obama. Ms. Poppe said a lack of affordable rental homes spurred the homeless crisis that began in the mid-1980s and has underpinned homelessness since.
HUD Secretary Ben Carson said he believes his agency can help by taking steps to promote more housing development. Mr. Carson noted that given escalating home sales and rental prices, for homelessness “to be relatively flat is actually pretty good.”
Expensive metropolitan areas have struggled with how to tackle homelessness at a time when limited new housing supply is being created, and what does get built tends to be very expensive. Nearly one-quarter of the nation’s homeless population lives in New York or Los Angeles.
Tough Predicament U.S. homeless population Source: Dept. of Housing and Urban Development
Rents in Los Angeles have increased 35% since 2012, while New York rents have grown 20%, according to Reis Inc. Rents in Seattle, another place grappling with homelessness, are up 64%, Reis said.
Overall homelessness in New York increased 2.8% this year, driven by an increase in people living in the city’s shelters, while the number of people sleeping on the streets declined.
In the nation’s largest city, the rise in homelessness in recent years has been a political challenge for Mayor Bill de Blasio. His administration has redoubled efforts to tackle homelessness but has at best managed to stabilize the problem.
The city increased spending on homeless services by about $172 million in 2018, which officials said was focused on improving living conditions and security in existing shelters and opening new shelters. Steven Banks, the city’s social services commissioner, said more than 100,000 people have been connected with permanent housing through city programs, a sign that the city’s “strategies are taking hold.”
In Seattle and surrounding King County, the number of homeless rose 4% this year, raising pressure on local officials spending tens of millions of dollars annually on homelessness to show more progress.
In Los Angeles County, a 4.7% decline in the number of homeless this year marked a breakthrough after four consecutive years of rises, showing how major investment on multiple fronts—preventing homelessness while improving shelters and building housing—can turn the tide.
Officials said the dent in numbers was the culmination of a recent boost in funding and coordination that just kicked in last year.
L.A. city voters in 2016 approved a $1.2 billion bond to help build 10,000 units of housing for the homeless over 10 years. A countywide sales tax passed last year generates about $350 million annually for services ranging from homelessness prevention, such as rental assistance, to help for the already homeless, such as mental-health support.
“We are seeing the results of investment that voters have made, and we are doing better with the resources we have,” said Peter Lynn, executive director of the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority.
In Los Angeles, entire blocks have given way to tent cities far beyond the few locations where they were once concentrated. Recognizing a mismatch between the long haul of building homes and a proliferating population on the streets, Mayor Eric Garcetti this year dedicated special funding for every city district to set up temporary shelters.
Mr. Garcetti said in a statement: “We were encouraged to see that we have fewer people on the streets than in previous years, but we’ll keep pushing forward as aggressively as possible until we can bring this crisis to an end.”
Write to Laura Kusisto at laura.kusisto@wsj.com and Nour Malas at nour.malas@wsj.com
Appeared in the December 17, 2018, print edition as 'Homeless Problem Worsens.'
www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-homelessness-edges-higher-again-after-seven-years-of-declines-11545022860?mod=hp_major_pos5 Trump ends homeless vets program as their numbers rise for first time in 7 yearsBy Matthew Chapman - December 6, 2017
The Trump administration is ending a popular and effective program that prevents veterans from ending up on the street — just as the number of homeless vets is on the rise.
shareblue.com/trump-ends-homeless-vets-program-as-their-numbers-rise-for-first-time-in-7-years/
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 5, 2020 5:56:19 GMT
Republicans are such works of art. Paul Volcker was FED chair under Carter and to stop the extensive economic problems brought on by continued wars by 2 previous Republican presidents he raised interest rates to an unheard of rate to stop inflation and another great Republican Depression. It worked and was responsible for an improving economy that happened under his successor Ronald Reagan. Unfortunately Reagan quadrupled the debt thanks to an arms build up but it did stimulate the economy as well. Throw 4 trillion dollars at something and it will improve. Better to have spent that money on something worthwhile like infrastructure, healthcare, etc. Anyway, leave the banks unregulated without common sense rules and here we go with 2008 Republican Great Recession all over again. Once again, get out of the stock market while you can cut your losses. It looks like it will be a slow fall until it turns into a crash.Mnuchin thinks there’s a simple reason the Dow is poised for its worst December since 1931Published: Dec 18, 2018 4:45 p.m. ET
Mnuchin has found a villain.
By MARK DECAMBRE
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has weighed and measured the recent destruction that put the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its worst December since 1931, and he appears to have drawn his own conclusions as to the impetus.
Mnuchin during a Tuesday interview with Bloomberg News in Washington said that the effect of the financial-crisis-era Volcker rule and high-frequency trading have combined to sap liquidity in the market and insert an unprecedented measure of volatility in assets.
‘In my opinion, market structure has led to a lot more volatility. Part of this is a combination of the market presence of high-frequency traders combined with the Volcker rule.’ Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin The Volcker rule refers to the controversial standards put in place to prohibit banks from trading for their own accounts, in the wake of the 2007-09 financial crisis, while high-frequency trading refers to superpowered computers engineered to execute transactions at lightning-quick speeds, which has become arguably the dominant force in the market over the years since its advent.
Back-to-back declines of more than 500 points in the Dow DJIA, +0.35% , beginning Friday, pushed the blue-chip benchmark deeper into correction territory, usually defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak.
In fact, if the Dow were to finish the month at its current level, down about 7%, it would mark the worst December since 1931, when it fell 17.01%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.01% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.45% are on pace for the worst start for any December since 2008, largely on the back of fears about sluggish global economic expansion, trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, and a Federal Reserve that is apparently set this week to lift borrowing costs for a fourth time in 2018. Those factors have further unnerved investors who had already grown accustomed to easy-money policies and are now fearful that the central bank may be too eager to reset rates closer to normal historical levels.
On Tuesday, the stock benchmarks managed narrow gains.
To be sure, Mnuchin isn’t the only one to peg Wall Street’s spate of volatility to market structure. Fed Gov. Lael Brainard in a speech earlier this month said computer-driven trading in the Treasury market may also be fueling erratic swings, sometimes referred to as flash crashes. Brainard, in contrast to President Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary, said the post-crisis banking laws have not contributed to liquidity problems.
Mnuchin’s comments came with Trump having squarely — and repeatedly — placed blame for the swift retrenchment in markets on the shoulders of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whom the president has accused of undermining his efforts to bolster economic growth. (Trump chose Powell over incumbent Fed chair Janet Yellen in 2017.)
A rate increase on Wednesday is anticipated, but a number of market pundits have cautioned that if the central bank becomes too aggressive in the pace of its rate increases, it could derail the stock market and thrust the economy into recession.
Read: Trump implores Fed to ‘feel the market’ before it makes ‘yet another mistake’
Related: When Trump tweets about the Fed, it also turns up heat on Mnuchin
www.marketwatch.com/story/mnuchin-has-a-simple-reason-why-the-dow-is-poised-for-its-worst-december-since-1931-2018-12-18?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
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