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Post by the Scribe on Apr 9, 2020 0:45:49 GMT
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 12, 2020 22:32:24 GMT
Trump still 'going to lose' election amid coronavirus: Anthony ScaramucciMax Zahn with Andy Serwer
Yahoo FinanceApril 11, 2020, 11:00 AM UTC
The novel coronavirus has upended the daily lives of nearly all Americans, decimated the economy, and put millions out of work — but it has improved the re-election chances of President Donald Trump, acknowledged SkyBridge Founder and former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci. Still, he predicted that Trump will ultimately be stymied by the recession and lose in November.
“The odds of him winning have improved for him because this is viewed as a war,” Scaramucci, who has sharply criticized the president since serving as his communications director for just 10 days in 2017, told Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief on April 2.
“I still think he’s going to lose,” adds Scaramucci, who pledged last month to campaign against Trump’s re-election and on Wednesday tweeted an image of the campaign logo of presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. “There has been no modern president that's been able to withstand a recession in the election year.”
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 21: Anthony Scaramucci answers reporters' questions during the daily White House press briefing in the Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House July 21, 2017 in Washington, DC.(Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Both Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, the two most recent presidents who failed to win reelection, lost their bids in part due to an economic downturn. Carter, a Democrat, lost to Republican challenger Ronald Reagan in 1980 after a six-month recession that began in January of that year; and George H.W. Bush lost to Democratic challenger Bill Clinton in 1992, not long after an eight-month recession that began in July 1990.
Scaramucci pointed to a bump in approval ratings for Trump that followed the escalation of the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. last month but said the political impact of the pandemic is difficult to know at this time.
A Gallup survey released on March 24 gave Trump a 49% approval rating, matching the highest of his presidency, only otherwise seen during the Senate impeachment hearings that resulted in his acquittal. Sixty percent of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, the poll found.
“His approval ratings are up right now, although in a lot of the red states, they haven't been affected by the virus the way the coastal cities are or where the international transfer points are in the United States, like New York, or northern California,” Scaramucci says. “We've got a hotspot in Detroit; we've got one down in New Orleans.”
However, the public may be souring on Trump’s handling of the outbreak, according to a CNN poll released on Wednesday that found 55% of Americans think the federal government has done a poor job of preventing the spread of the virus, while 52% disapprove of the job Trump has done to address the pandemic.
“We'll have to see what happens to his political standing and his approval ratings once the pandemic reaches its high point,” Scaramucci adds.
On Wednesday, Democratic presidential candidate and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders suspended his presidential campaign, effectively confirming that former Vice President Joe Biden will face Trump in the general election in November. A national poll released by CNN on Thursday gives Biden a wide lead of 53% to 42% over Trump among registered voters.
Scaramucci made the remarks during a conversation that aired in an episode of Yahoo Finance’s “Influencers with Andy Serwer,” a weekly interview series with leaders in business, politics, and entertainment.
A 31-year veteran on Wall Street, Scaramucci served briefly as President Donald Trump’s communications director three years ago but was fired after ranting to a New Yorker reporter about the president’s staff. In 2005, Scaramucci founded Manhattan-based investment firm Skybridge Capital, where he currently works as a managing partner.
Anthony Scaramucci, SkyBridge Founder and former White House Communications Director, appears on "Influencers with Andy Serwer."
Scaramucci credited the Trump administration for what he considers a more serious approach to the coronavirus outbreak of late, but criticized false information spread by the Trump administration about the pandemic.
“I am very happy with where we are now,” Scaramucci says. “He's made a 180 degree turn. And thank God he did that because it will save lives.”
Trump has touted malaria drug chloroquine as an effective treatment for coronavirus, though the Food and Drug Administration has not approved the drug as a coronavirus treatment and evidence of the drug’s efficacy in combating the virus remains uncertain.
“The president talks about fake news all the time,” he adds. “But a lot of the things coming out of his mouth are fake science. So what I'm hoping is we can get what's coming from the White House to be more congruent with the reality of the situation.”
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 14, 2020 6:03:23 GMT
Sanders endorses Biden for president: 'We need you in the White House'news.yahoo.com/sanders-endorses-biden-president-white-183300648.html
NBC News
Adam Edelman,NBC News•April 13, 2020
Bernie Sanders offered his full-throated endorsement for Joe Biden on Monday, handing the apparent Democratic presidential nominee a crucial boost among the party's progressive wing heading into the general election campaign.
"Today I am asking all Americans, I'm asking every Democrat, I'm asking every independent, I'm asking a lot of Republicans to come together in this campaign to support your candidacy, which I endorse," Sanders said, "to make certain that we defeat somebody who I believe, and I'm speaking just for myself, now is the most dangerous president in the modern history of this country."
Sanders, an independent senator from Vermont, made the endorsement during a surprise appearance on a Biden virtual campaign event after tweeting about the need to unite against President Donald Trump.
"We've got to make Trump a one-term president, and we need you in the White House," Sanders said during the livestream.
"I will do all that I can to see that that happens," Sanders said. "It's imperative that all of us work together to do what has to be done. Not only in this moment, but beyond this moment in the future of this country."
Biden said Sanders' endorsement "means a great deal to me."
"We're awfully close on a whole bunch of issues," Biden said, adding that "if I'm the Democratic nominee, which it looks like now you just made me, I'm going to need you, not just to win the campaign but to govern."
"I promise I won't let you down," Biden added moments later.
Sanders' endorsement came five days after he ended his own presidential bid. Although Sanders said then that his decision was "difficult and painful," he made it clear that he intended to support Biden, calling him "a very decent man who I will work with to move our progressive ideas forward."
By contrast, in 2016, it took Sanders 36 days to formally endorse Hillary Clinton after she became the party's presumptive nominee.
Download the NBC News app for breaking news and politics
Biden has not yet become his party's presumptive nominee. For that to occur, he must win the necessary number of pledged delegates that allows him to formally clinch the nomination. While Biden is the clear leader in the total delegate count, he has not yet reached the needed 1,991.
Sanders, meanwhile, added that he was "very pleased" that his staff and Biden's staff had "been working together over the last several weeks" on policy and to create task forces related to "some of the most important issues facing this country," including criminal justice, health care and climate change.
Sanders said he hoped the task forces would help the two teams "work out real solutions to these very, very important problems," even though he and Biden "have our differences."
NBC News reported last week that Sanders' team had been coordinating extensively with Biden's camp since early March.
Sanders also appeared to talk directly to his own supporters at one point, urging them to move "forward together" and support Biden. He also expressed confidence that Biden was an "inclusive" candidate who wants to "bring people in" to his campaign, including those he disagrees with.
Biden said later that his campaign has an "enormous responsibility" to fully win over Sanders' supporters.
Following their initial exchange on the livestream, the pair engaged in a question-and-answer session, with Biden responding to Sanders' questions about policy.
The discussion covered several issues, including Biden's recently released free college plan — a new policy position borrowed from Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., that was clearly aimed at courting progressive voters.
The Trump campaign ripped Biden moments after Sanders' endorsement, saying the former vice president "had to adopt most of Bernie's agenda to be successful in the Democrat primaries."
"One thing that is missing is enthusiasm, however, as almost no one is excited about a Biden candidacy," Trump's campaign manager, Brad Parscale, said in a statement. "And while Biden is the Democrat establishment's candidate, President Trump remains the disruptor candidate who has brought change to Washington. President Trump's supporters will run through a brick wall to vote for him. Nobody is running through a brick wall for Joe Biden."
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 20, 2020 8:29:27 GMT
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 20, 2020 22:16:50 GMT
Biden's choice for vice president will decide this race. Michelle Obama would win it for him as would Elizabeth Warren. In these bad economic times it might be best to have Warren as his Secretary of Treasury. Once again Democrats will need to come to the rescue and clean the big mess the CONservatives have made out of the economy and country. Michelle Obama even polls well with Republican women.Biden is doing much better than Trump among voters who don't like either of them, poll showsnews.yahoo.com/biden-doing-much-better-trump-134800954.html
The Week
Tim O'Donnell,The Week•April 20, 2020
Both President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden have net-negative approval ratings, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows, though Biden appears to have emerged as the presidential candidate more voters will begrudgingly vote for. It may be a backhanded compliment, but one the likely Democratic nominee will surely take come November.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/six-months-out-here-s-where-2020-race-between-trump-n1187661
The poll shows voters who have a negative opinion of both Trump and Biden overwhelmingly prefer Biden, 60 percent to 10 percent.
Bill Scher
✔
@billscher
Good news data is pretty good:
Biden's lead with...
RVs: 7
Swing states: 6
Black: 78
Latino: 34
Under 35: 23
Women: 21
Negative opinion of both candidates: 50
Also 42% w/whites vs. 37% for HRC '16 …
Mark Murray
✔
@mmurraypolitics
The new NBC/WSJ poll has good news and bad news for Joe Biden looking ahead his to November matchup vs Trump.
This morning's @mtpfirstread: www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/six-months-out-here-s-where-2020-race-between-trump-n1187661 …
97
5:47 AM - Apr 20, 2020
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NBC News notes that's good news for the former vice president, although the rate of negative opinions increases with younger voters, which could be a warning sign. Still, the early returns look good for Biden, who leads Trump among a host of other demographics, as well.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/six-months-out-here-s-where-2020-race-between-trump-n1187661
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll was conducted between April 13-15. The survey included 900 registered voters. The margin of error is 3.7 percentage points. Read the full results here.
www.documentcloud.org/documents/6842659-200203-NBCWSJ-April-Poll-4-19-20-Release.html
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Post by the Scribe on Apr 27, 2020 22:00:58 GMT
How Trump Stole 2020 (w/ Greg Palast)
Thom Hartmann Program
221K subscribers
The Republicans do not want Democrats to vote. They will remove people from the voter role. Will the 2020 election have to use Vote by Mail?
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Post by the Scribe on May 8, 2020 20:12:33 GMT
This woman is TOAST here in Arizona. These conservatives say one thing in public and another in private just to get into office where they then proceed to favor their wealthy campaign donors, the !% knowing full well their deplorable base will vote for them anyway. Red states are taker states so she is treading in thin waters with her partisanship:
Arizona ranks 13th in the amount of funding they get per capita from the federal government. The "Blue States" she's complaining about:
45. Illinois
47. New York
48. Massachusetts
49. New Jersey
50. Connecticut
By the way Kentucky is number 4 on the list.
GOP senator said she won't commit to additional coronavirus relief funds to cities and states. Her office then said the comments were not meant to be public.www.yahoo.com/news/gop-senator-said-she-wont-081819796.html
insider@insider.com (Lauren Frias)
Business InsiderMay 8, 2020, 1:18 AM MST
Associated Press
GOP Sen. Martha McSally said she wouldn't commit to backing additional financial aid to "mismanaged" municipalities, saying Arizona taxpayers will be viewed as "cash cows" for coronavirus relief.
"This is not the time for us in Arizona and you in Surprise to be paying for mismanagement in Chicago," McSally said during a digital town hall. "That's what, actually, the left is advocating for right now. What we're advocating for is we provide specific relief."
A spokeswoman for McSally's office told The Arizona Republic that the Senator's comments were not meant to be public.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
GOP Sen. Martha McSally of Arizona said she won't commit to additional coronavirus relief funds to cities and states looking for financial support amid the coronavirus pandemic, saying that "blue" cities and states look at taxpayers as a "cash cow" for them.
McSally made the comment, first reported by the AZ Mirror, during an hour-long virtual town hall at the end of April hosted by the mayor of Surprise, Arizona, Skip Hall, The Arizona Republic reported.
"I'm just going to be frank with you guys, OK," she said during the event. "This is not the time for states and cities — unlike Arizona, unlike Surprise — who have mismanaged their budgets over the course of many decades, for them to use this as an opportunity to see you, as a taxpayer in Arizona, as a cash cow for them in whatever city you want to talk about, whether it's Chicago or New York or whatever."
"This is not the time for us in Arizona and you in Surprise to be paying for mismanagement in Chicago," McSally continued. "That's what, actually, the left is advocating for right now. What we're advocating for is we provide specific relief."
A spokeswoman for McSally's office told The Republic that the senator's comments were not meant to be public.
She previously declined to comment on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's suggestion that states and cities go bankrupt rather than get money for the federal government to help financial hardship during the pandemic.
McConnell's office previously called the bailout a "blue state bailout," and he argued in a radio interview that, "There's not going to be any desire on the Republican side to bail out state pensions by borrowing money from future generations."
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle chafed at these remarks. GOP Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan saying the last thing people need during this crisis is cuts to services.
McConnell recently said he's "open" to more funding.
Under the $2 trillion CARES Act passed in March, $150 billion was allocated to municipalities, but only cities with a population of 500,000 or more would receive money directly, leaving smaller cities, including those in Arizona, having to wait for aid to be dolled out by the state.
In a written statement to The Republic, McSally said she was working to ensure Arizona cities would receive the previously-mandated aid. She had previously criticized Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for the distribution path, saying it "unjustly narrowed" the accessibility of the aid for smaller governments.
"At the federal level, I'm fighting for maximum flexibility of resources so essential services like first-responders are also supported," McSally wrote to The Republic. "This is a top priority of mine, and I'll continue to be in close communication with our mayors and local elected officials as we work to get them support during this crisis."
Cities and states are being hit financially during the pandemic and unlike the federal government cannot have a deficit and may turn to slashing payroll and programs to balance the budget.
Economist Paul Krugman previously told Business Insider that he worried that if local governments did not get financial help, there could be another wave of job loss as cities and states go bankrupt and lay off public officials.
"State and local governments really need a lot of help, and there's not remotely enough money in there," Krugman told Business Insider's Sara Silverstein. "In a way, I think this crisis is going to be prolonged even once the pandemic subsides by the fact that we're going to have state and local governments that are in desperate financial constraints."
In mid-April, The Washington Post reported that "More than 2,100 US cities are anticipating major budget shortfalls this year and many are planning to slash programs and cut staff in response."
Read the original article on Business Insider
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Post by the Scribe on May 17, 2020 21:27:08 GMT
Are we better off today than we were four years ago?A Sitting President, Riling the Nation During a Crisiswww.yahoo.com/news/sitting-president-riling-nation-during-154549053.html
Alexander Burns, Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Martin and Nick Corasaniti
The New York TimesMay 17, 2020, 8:45 AM MST
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he departs the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, on May 5, 2020. (Al Drago/The New York Times)
Even by President Donald Trump’s standards, it was a rampage: He attacked a government whistleblower who was telling Congress that the coronavirus pandemic had been mismanaged. He criticized the governor of Pennsylvania, who has resisted reopening businesses. He railed against former President Barack Obama, linking him to a conspiracy theory and demanding he answer questions before the Senate about the federal investigation of Michael Flynn.
And Trump lashed out at Joe Biden, his Democratic challenger. In an interview with a supportive columnist, Trump smeared Biden as a doddering candidate who “doesn’t know he’s alive.” The caustic attack coincided with a barrage of digital ads from Trump’s campaign mocking Biden for verbal miscues and implying that he is in mental decline.
That was all on Thursday.
Far from a one-day onslaught, it was a climactic moment in a weeklong lurch by Trump back to the darkest tactics that defined his rise to political power. Even those who have grown used to Trump’s conduct in office may have found themselves newly alarmed by the grim spectacle of a sitting president deliberately stoking the country’s divisions and pursuing personal vendettas in the midst of a crisis that has Americans fearing for their lives and livelihoods.
Since well before he became president, Trump’s appetite for conflict has defined him as a public figure. But in recent days he has practiced that approach with new intensity, signaling both the depths of his election-year distress and his determination to blast open a path to a second term, even at the cost of further riling a country in deep anguish.
His electoral path has narrowed rapidly since the onset of the pandemic as the growth-and-prosperity theme of his campaign disintegrated. In private, Trump has been plainly aggrieved at the loss of his central argument for reelection. “They wiped out my economy!” he has said to aides, according to people briefed on the remarks.
It is unclear whether he has been referring to China, where the virus originated, or health experts who have urged widespread lockdowns, but his frustration and determination to place blame elsewhere have been emphatic.
Ken Goldstein, a professor of politics at the University of San Francisco, said that Trump and his campaign were going on the offensive in nasty ways in an attempt to shift the attention of the public away from him and onto other targets, and ultimately onto Biden.
“If this election is about Trump, he probably loses,” Goldstein said. “Trump’s only hope is to make the election about Biden.”
A number of Republican operatives believe Biden’s advantage is soft and that his penchant for gaffes will at least make the race more competitive than it would otherwise be amid a pandemic and an incipient economic depression.
“We have a very good story to tell on him, and we’ve got to do it,” Corry Bliss, a Republican strategist, said of the negative narrative his party aims to generate about Biden.
Still, Trump’s behavior has rattled even some supportive Republicans, who believe it is likely to backfire and possibly cost them the Senate as well as the White House. It has also further alarmed Democrats, who have long warned that Trump would be willing to use every lever of presidential power and deploy even the most unscrupulous campaign tactics to capture a second term.
In many respects Trump’s approach to the 2020 election looks like a crude approximation of the way he waged the 2016 campaign against Hillary Clinton, attacking her personal ethics, often in false or exaggerated terms; taking Clinton’s admitted errors and distorting them with the help of online disinformation merchants; and making wild claims about her physical health and mental capacity for the job. Given that the 2016 campaign — the only one Trump has ever run — ended in a razor-thin victory for him, it is perhaps not surprising that the president would attempt a kind of sequel in 2020.
But there are vitally important differences between 2016 and 2020, ones that amplify the risks involved both for Trump and for the country he is vying to lead.
He is running against an opponent in Biden who, despite his vulnerabilities, has not faced decades of personal vilification as Clinton did before running for president. And unlike 2016, Trump has a governing record to defend — one that currently involves presiding over a pandemic that has claimed more than 80,000 American lives — and he may not find it easy to change the subject with incendiary distractions.
Yet with the responsibility to govern also comes great power, and Trump has instruments available to him in 2020 that he did not have as a candidate four years ago — tools like a politically supportive attorney general, a Republican-controlled Senate determined to defend him and a vastly better financed campaign apparatus that has been constructed with the defining purpose of destroying his opponent’s reputation.
His attacks over the last week on Obama have showcased Trump’s persistent determination to weaponize those tools to bolster a favorite political narrative, one that distorts the facts about Flynn, the president’s former national security adviser, in order to spin sinister implications about the previous administration.
But Trump also appears to genuinely believe many of the conspiratorial claims he makes, people close to him say, and his anger at Obama is informed less by political strategy than by an unbending — and unsubstantiated — belief that the former president was personally involved in a plot against him.
This weekend, Trump will huddle with some of his conservative allies in the House at Camp David, where they are expected to discuss the efforts — entirely fruitless up to this point — to prove Obama was involved in a conspiracy.
Of all Trump’s efforts, this one may be among the least concerning to Democrats, given Obama’s strong popularity and the degree to which Trump’s claims of an “Obamagate” scandal have been confined so far to the usual echo chambers of Fox News and right-wing social media. As he did in 2016, Trump is trying to force other outlets to cover the matter through repetition on his Twitter feed.
Democratic anxiety about the president’s attacks on Biden runs higher. But in general Biden’s advisers have professed confidence that the severity of the country’s problems will make it difficult for Trump to retake control of the campaign and that Biden’s fundamental political strengths make him well positioned to survive a campaign of attempted character assassination.
On a conference call with reporters Friday, Mike Donilon, one of Biden’s closest advisers, said Trump was transparently engaged in “an all-out effort to take people away from what they’re living through.”
“I think that’s going to be real hard to do because the country has really been rocked,” Donilon said. “And where the president has succeeded in the past in terms of throwing up lots of distractions and smoke screens and trying to move the debate to other questions, I don’t think he’s going to succeed here.”
The president has been grumbling about his own campaign and this week complained to allies that he had not significantly outraised Biden in April, according to a Republican who spoke with Trump.
Still, Trump’s political operation has moved over the last month to devise a plan for tearing down Biden, who does not inspire great enthusiasm in voters but is held in higher esteem by most than the incumbent president. The result has been a blizzard of negative digital and television ads battering Biden on a range of subjects in a way that suggests Trump’s advisers have not yet settled on a primary line of attack.
The campaign’s ads on Facebook are as relentless as they are varied, as if plucked from a vintage Trump rally rant: Some make unfounded inferences about Biden’s mental state, saying “geriatric health is no laughing matter.” Others paint the presumptive Democratic nominee as “China’s puppet,” highlighting statements that Biden made when he was vice president, like, “China is not our enemy.” Still others stick to traditional themes of illegal immigration.
Over the last week, the Trump campaign has spent at least $880,000 on Facebook ads attacking Biden.
Yet there are persistent doubts even within Trump’s political circle that an overwhelmingly negative campaign can be successful in 2020, particularly when many voters are likely to be looking for a combination of optimism, empathy and steady leadership at a moment of crisis unlike any in living memory. And the more Trump lashes out — at Biden and others — the more he may cement in place the reservations of voters who are accustomed to seeing presidents react with resolute calm in difficult situations.
Private Republican polling has shown Trump slipping well behind Biden in a number of key states. Perhaps just as troubling for Trump, it has raised questions about whether his efforts to tar Biden are making any headway.
Last month, a poll commissioned by the Republican National Committee tested roughly 20 lines of attack against Biden, ranging from the private business activities of his son, Hunter Biden, to whether Biden has “lost” a step, a reference to mental acuity. None of the lines of attack significantly moved voter sentiment, according to two people briefed on the results. There were some lines of attack that had potential, one of the people briefed on the results said, but they were more traditional Republican broadsides about issues like taxes.
Trump has also been warned by Republican veterans that his efforts to define Biden in negative terms so far have been slow or ineffective. At a meeting with political advisers this week that included Karl Rove, the top strategist for former President George W. Bush, Rove warned Trump that he had fallen behind in the task of damaging Biden, people familiar with the meeting said.
Part of the challenge, though, is that Trump constantly undermines his own team’s strategy, in ways big and small. While he finally stopped doing his daily press briefings, after weeks of pleading from his allies, he still makes comments on Twitter or to reporters nearly every day that hand Democrats fodder and make Republicans squirm.
In addition to his attacks against Obama, he separated himself from the highly popular Dr. Anthony Fauci, downplayed the importance of testing and has refused to wear a mask. And Trump’s appetite for conspiracy theories is often embarrassing to his party: Several times in recent weeks, he has falsely accused a prominent television host of murder and called for a “cold case” investigation.
The president also routinely misses even the political opportunities his advisers deliberately tee up for him.
When Trump was visiting Pennsylvania this week, for instance, his team scheduled a friendly interview in the hope that he would make the case that Biden would undermine fracking, an important industry in Pennsylvania. But Trump made no mention of fracking and instead attacked Biden’s mental condition and called wind power a “disaster” that “kills all the birds.”
“He’s come back down because that’s where his natural state is,” said Terry Nelson, a Republican strategist, referring to Trump’s slide in the polls after a short-lived bump in March. “Because he’s not in position to rally the country in a way a president traditionally would in a situation like this.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
© 2020 The New York Times Company
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Post by the Scribe on May 17, 2020 23:16:52 GMT
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Post by the Scribe on May 21, 2020 5:45:32 GMT
 www.yahoo.com/finance/news/how-biden-wallops-trump-114537297.htmlHow Biden wallops TrumpRick Newman
Rick NewmanSenior Columnist
Yahoo FinanceMay 20, 2020, 4:45 AM MST
First, the disclaimer: Forecasts can be wrong, as everybody learned from Donald Trump’s startling win in the 2016 president election. No prediction is bulletproof.
Now, the shocker: Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden might not just beat Trump in November, but wallop him. The election model run by forecasting firm Oxford Economics now sees Biden beating Trump by historic margins, due to an economy deeply damaged by the coronavirus recession. Before the recession, the model showed Trump winning in a close race.
Widespread business shutdowns meant to stop the spread of the coronavirus have caused the loss of 37 million jobs since the end of March – the biggest drop in employment since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Some of those layoffs are temporary, but the unemployment rate, now 14.7%, will still probably be around 10% on Election Day. That’s three times higher than it was before the virus, and comparable to the worst period of the last recession, which began in 2007. Simply put, many Americans will be worse off on Election Day than they were a year before, some of them feeling desperate.
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-covid-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-may-9-155532542.html
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/major-reallocation-shock-from-coronavirus-will-see-42-of-lost-jobs-evaporate-172558520.html
President Donald Trump speaks in front of a painting of former U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt during an event on the food supply chain amid the coronavirus pandemic, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 19, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
The key variable in the Oxford model is a sharp economic contraction in swing states that fuels dissatisfaction with Trump and his fellow Republicans, and bolsters Democratic turnout. In the model, Biden, the former vice president, wins all the usual Democratic states plus seven states Trump won in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The outcome would give Biden 65% of the popular vote, and Trump just 35%. Biden would win the electoral vote 328 – 210, the worst womping of an incumbent president since Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, 48% to 46%, but swing state victories gave him a 306-232 electoral college win. The Oxford model predicted Hillary Clinton’s popular vote win, but not Trump’s electoral college margin. In 18 presidential elections dating to 1948, the Oxford model got the popular vote winner wrong only twice, in 1968 and 1976.
Before the virus arrived, Oxford forecast Trump winning reelection with a 55% popular-vote margin. The reeling economy and Trump’s halting response to the crisis have obviously helped Biden. Polls show Biden with a 4 to 5 point lead over Trump nationally. Biden also leads in most of the swing states likely to determine the winner in November. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics recently told Yahoo Finance his firm’s election forecasting tool also switched from Trump to Biden recently, though details aren’t publicly available yet.
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/the-key-to-trump-winning-reelection-192619714.html
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/this-week-in-trumponomics-theres-still-no-coronavirus-plan-192545819.html
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html
Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks about the coronavirus Thursday, March 12, 2020, in Wilmington, Del. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Turnout is crucial in elections, and depressed Democrat turnout—because of the coronavirus, lack of enthusiasm for Biden or some other reason—would help Trump. High Democratic turnout, on the other hand, could generate an ever more decisive Biden win. In the Oxford model, if Democrat turnout is as strong as it was in 2008, when voters sent Barack Obama to the White House, Biden would win Florida, Texas and other traditionally red states, for a 434 – 104 electoral college stampede. A decisive Biden win would probably also mean Democrats retake control of the Senate, for complete control of the federal government.
Trump seems to know he’s in trouble, one reason he’s pressing hard for states to reopen quickly, even if it means more coronavirus infections and deaths. But there’s little he can do at this point to prevent the economy on Election Day from being far worse than it was a year before. Trump’s best bet may be convincing voters the virus is an external enemy and he’ll be a better rebuilder than Biden. Yes, yes, yes—it’s possible Trump could pull it off, regardless of what the experts say.
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/over-4-million-will-contract-coronavirus-as-states-reopen-wharton-model-172015472.html
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. Confidential tip line: rickjnewman@yahoo.com. Encrypted communication available. Click here to get Rick’s stories by email.
Read more:
Why Trump is back to normal, and you’re not
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/why-trump-is-back-to-normal-and-youre-not-164928804.html
Trump’s grade on the economy tumbles from B to C
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-grade-on-the-economy-drops-from-b-to-c-142543596.html
If you want to protect lockdowns, renounce health care
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/if-you-want-to-protest-lockdowns-renounce-health-care-180913176.html
The cost of reopening the economy, in lives
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/the-cost-of-reopening-the-economy-in-lives-201007725.html
The new taxes coming to finance all that stimulus spending
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/the-new-taxes-coming-to-finance-all-that-stimulus-spending-180206720.html |
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Post by the Scribe on Jun 5, 2020 19:54:56 GMT
‘Trumpocalypse’ Author Predicts Trump Defeat, Says GOP 'Reckoning' Is Here | The Last Word | MSNBC
445,982 views•May 25, 2020
MSNBC
3.15M subscribers
David Frum, author of the new book “Trumpocalypse,” says President Trump is “careening toward electoral disaster” come November. He tells Lawrence O’Donnell it will be an ideal time for “practical, feasible reforms,” including the redrawing of controversial congressional districts. Aired on 5/25/2020.
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Post by the Scribe on Jun 7, 2020 8:20:26 GMT
George W. Bush and Mitt Romney won't support Trump in 2020, while some GOP officials consider voting for Bideninsider@insider.com (Mara Leighton)
Business InsiderJune 6, 2020, 8:10 PM MST
Former US President George W. Bush and Senator Mitt Romney.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque KL/MMR
Former President George W. Bush and Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah won't support President Donald Trump's re-election, and other GOP officials are considering voting for Joe Biden, according to The New York Times.
The Times credits the early fallout to Trump's handling of police brutality protests and a mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Some GOP officials have been public about their dilemma while attempting to balance conscience, ideology, and risk to themselves and their agenda.
John Kelly, Trump's former chief of staff and a retired Marine general, wouldn't disclose who had his vote, but he did say that he wished "we had some additional choices," according to The Times.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
President Donald Trump may be losing the support of members of his own party already, with some GOP officials considering a vote for Joe Biden.
Sooner than expected, growing numbers of big Republican names are debating how transparent to be about their decision not to back his re-election, or may even vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden.
According to The New York Times, Former President George W. Bush and Senator Mitt Romney won't support Trump's re-election, Jeb Bush isn't sure how he'll vote, and Cindy McCain, the widow of Sen. John McCain, is almost certain to support Biden but is "unsure how public to be about it because one of her sons is eying a run for office."
Former Republican leaders like the former Speakers Paul Ryan and John Boehner are still tight-lipped about who they'll vote for, and some Republicans are reportedly weighing their options between backing a third-party contender or openly endorsing Biden, risking the ire of Trump. Some say they'd possibly prefer a Biden victory if the GOP managed to preserve its Senate majority.
Dissenters are reportedly feeling a renewed urgency due to Trump's incendiary response to the protests against police brutality and a mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to anonymous sources. Retired military leaders, typically private about their personal political views, have grown increasingly vocal about unease with the president's leadership, but are still undecided about embracing an opponent.
Those considering Biden include unlikely surprises — including Rep. Francis Rooney of Florida, who has donated millions of dollars to Republican candidates over the years and served as President Bush's ambassador to the Vatican. Rooney reportedly hasn't voted for a Democrat in decades. But, according to The Times, Rooney is considering supporting Biden, "in part because Trump is 'driving us all crazy' and his handling of the virus led to a death toll that 'didn't have to happen.'"
Eighty-nine former defense officials said they were "alarmed" by Trump's threat to use the military to end unrest, and former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis issued an intense rebuke of Trump, saying he's turning Americans against each other during nationwide protests. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska has also said that she is "struggling" with whether to vote for Trump.
www.businessinsider.com/89-former-defense-officials-speak-out-against-trumps-protest-response-2020-6?utm_source=yahoo.com&utm_medium=referral
www.businessinsider.com/mattis-unloads-on-trump-for-dividing-america-in-blistering-statement-2020-6?utm_source=yahoo.com&utm_medium=referral
"This fall, it's time for new leadership in this country — Republican, Democrat or independent," William McRaven, the retired Navy admiral who directed the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, was quoted saying. "President Trump has shown he doesn't have the qualities necessary to be a good commander in chief."
www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/us/politics/trump-biden-republicans-voters.html?referringSource=articleShare
While many of the big names mentioned by The Times did not vote for Trump in 2016, the lack of support is more meaningful when it concerns an incumbent president and his shared agenda with Senate leaders than when no ongoing conservative agenda would be affected.
But, The Times notes that polls today indicate Republicans generally are behind the president, and far more GOP elected officials are publicly backing Trump than did four years ago, including steadfast supporters such as Republican leaders like Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Lindsey Graham.
John Kelly, Trump's former chief of staff and a retired Marine general, wouldn't disclose who had his vote, but he did say that he wished "we had some additional choices."
And while some Republicans are unlikely to go public, Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware (one of Biden's closest allies in Congress) has become an emissary of sorts to Republican lawmakers. According to Coons, a number of GOP senators, regardless of what they say in public, won't vote for Trump in privacy.
"What he's always been is not scary," Rooney was quoted as saying. "A lot of people that voted for President Trump did so because they did not like Hillary Clinton. I don't see that happening with Joe Biden — how can you not like Joe Biden?"
www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/us/politics/trump-biden-republicans-voters.html?referringSource=articleShare
Read the original article on Business Insider
www.dailycelebuk.com/News/George-W-Bush-wont-vote-for-President-Trumps-in-Novembers-election-with-many-in-GOP-thinking-same.html
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Post by the Scribe on Jun 8, 2020 17:37:37 GMT
Polls: Trump approval drops amid George Floyd protests, coronaviruswww.yahoo.com/news/trump-polls-biden-george-floyd-coronavirus-job-approval-152747803.html
Dylan Stableford Senior Writer
Yahoo NewsJune 8, 2020, 8:27 AM MST
President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus and protests over the death of George Floyd have caused Trump’s approval rating to fall and former Vice President Joe Biden to surge in the 2020 presidential race, four new national polls released in the past week show.
• A CNN poll released Monday found Trump’s approval rating has fallen 7 points over the past month, with 57 percent disapproving of the way he’s handling the presidency, compared with 38 percent who approve. “That’s his worst approval rating since January 2019,” CNN’s pollsters said, “and roughly on par with approval ratings for Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush at this point in their reelection years.”
Americans widely disapprove of Trump’s handling of race relations in general (63 percent), while 65 percent say the president’s response to the recent protests over Floyd’s death has been more harmful than helpful.
The CNN survey, conducted June 2-5, showed Biden with a 14-point lead over Trump (55 percent to 41 percent), the biggest advantage for the presumptive 2020 Democratic nominee to date.
• An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday found Biden maintaining a 7-point edge (49 percent to 42 percent) over Trump among registered voters, unchanged from April. But the survey showed Biden has a 21-point lead over the president among women, a remarkable figure when you consider Hillary Clinton’s edge over Trump among women was 13 points in 2016, exit polls showed. The NBC/WSJ poll also showed most voters (53 percent) disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, compared with 45 percent who do. His 8-point disapproval is down 3 points from last month.
• An ABC News/Ipsos poll released late last week found bad news for Trump on multiple fronts. Just 39 percent of respondents approved of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, versus 60 percent disapproval, the same numbers as in mid-May and a drop from a high of 47 percent approval in early April. His numbers on his response to Floyd’s death are even worse, with just 32 percent approval versus 66 disapproval. The poll also contains evidence that the protests attempting to call attention to systemic problems with policing are working, as 74 percent of respondents said Floyd’s death was a sign of broader problems in the treatment of African-Americans by police.
• A Reuters/Ipsos poll last week found similar support for the protesters and disapproval of Trump. More than 55 percent of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the protest, to just one-third showing approval. That poll showed Biden with a 10-point lead over the president in the general election matchup.
The surveys were conducted amid growing nationwide protests over the death of Floyd, including clashes between police and peaceful protesters in front of the White House. And they came on the heels of the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus passing 100,000, a grim figure that the White House initially warned might be the final toll.
The Trump campaign has argued that its candidate remains strong against a “defined” Biden — meaning after recipients hear negative attack lines about the Democrat.
Trump took issue, in particular, with CNN’s poll, which showed him trailing Biden by 14 points.
“CNN Polls are as Fake as their Reporting,” the president tweeted on Monday morning. “Same numbers, and worse, against Crooked Hillary. The Dems would destroy America!”
Read more from Yahoo News:
Sharpton mocks Trump's Bible photo op at George Floyd memorial
www.yahoo.com/news/george-floyd-memorial-minneapolis-sharpton-crump-trump-bible-204625513.html
Barr defends use of non-identified officers in D.C. as Democrats demand answers
www.yahoo.com/news/barr-defends-use-of-nonidentified-officers-in-dc-as-democrats-demand-answers-201723332.html
Biden demands justice in George Floyd death
www.yahoo.com/news/biden-demands-justice-in-george-floyd-death-184356793.html
Obama to George Floyd protesters: Channel 'justifiable' anger into action
www.yahoo.com/news/obama-george-floyd-protests-medium-essay-real-change-162830123.html
Yahoo News Poll: Most Americans say Trump is a ‘racist’ and want him to stop tweeting
www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-most-americans-say-trump-is-a-racist-and-want-him-to-stop-tweeting-160841770.html
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Post by the Scribe on Jun 24, 2020 13:58:05 GMT
Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Racewww.yahoo.com/news/biden-takes-dominant-lead-voters-120730177.html
Alexander Burns, Jonathan Martin and Matt Stevens
The New York TimesJune 24, 2020, 12:07 PM UTC
USA-ELECTION/BIDEN
Joe Biden has taken a commanding lead over President Donald Trump in the 2020 race, building a wide advantage among women and nonwhite voters and making deep inroads with some traditionally Republican-leaning groups that have shifted away from Trump following his ineffective response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new national poll of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College.
Biden is currently ahead of Trump by 14 percentage points, garnering 50% of the vote compared with 36% for Trump. That is among the most dismal showings of Trump’s presidency, and a sign that he is the clear underdog right now in his fight for a second term.
Trump has been an unpopular president for virtually his entire time in office. He has made few efforts since his election in 2016 to broaden his support beyond the right-wing base that vaulted him into office with only 46%of the popular vote and a modest victory in the Electoral College.
But among a striking cross-section of voters, the distaste for Trump has deepened as his administration failed to stop a deadly disease that crippled the economy and then as he responded to a wave of racial-justice protests with angry bluster and militaristic threats. The dominant picture that emerges from the poll is of a country ready to reject a president whom a strong majority of voters regard as failing the greatest tests confronting his administration.
Biden leads Trump by enormous margins with black and Hispanic voters, and women and young people appear on track to choose Biden by an even wider margin than they favored Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016. But the former vice president has also drawn even with Trump among male voters, whites and people in middle age and older — groups that have typically been the backbones of Republican electoral success, including Trump’s in 2016.
Arlene Myles, 75, of Denver, said she had been a Republican for nearly six decades before switching her registration to independent earlier this year during Trump’s impeachment trial. Myles said that when Trump was first elected, she had resolved to “give him a chance,” but had since concluded that he and his party were irredeemable.
“I was one of those people who stuck by Nixon until he was waving goodbye,” Myles said. “I thought I was a good Republican and thought they had my values, but they have gone down the tubes these last few years.”
Myles said she planned to vote for Biden, expressing only one misgiving: “I wish he was younger,” she said.
Most stark may be Biden’s towering advantage among white women with college degrees, who support him over Trump by 39 percentage points. In 2016, exit polls found that group preferred Clinton to Trump by just 7 percentage points. The poll also found that Biden has narrowed Trump’s advantage with less-educated white voters.
The exodus of white voters from the GOP has been especially pronounced among younger voters, an ominous trend for a party that was already heavily reliant on older Americans.
Fifty-two percent of whites under 45 said they supported Biden while only 30% said they supported Trump. And their opposition is intense: More than twice as many younger whites viewed the president very unfavorably than very favorably.
Tom Diamond, 31, a Republican in Fort Worth, Texas, said he planned to vote for Trump but would do so with real misgivings. He called the president a “poor leader” who had mishandled the pandemic and said Biden seemed “like a guy you can trust.” But Trump held views closer to his own on the economy, health care and abortion.
“Part of you just feels icky voting for him,” Diamond said. “But definitely from a policy perspective, that’s where my vote’s going to go.”
Some unease toward Trump stems from voters’ racial attitudes. According to the poll, white voters under 45 are overwhelmingly supportive of the Black Lives Matter movement, while older whites are more tepid in their views toward racial justice activism. And nearly 70% of whites under 45 said they believed the killing of George Floyd was part of a broader pattern of excessive police violence toward African Americans rather than an isolated incident.
What’s striking, though, is that even among white seniors, one of Trump’s strongest constituencies, he has damaged himself with his conduct. About two-fifths of whites over 65 said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of both the coronavirus and race relations.
Trump retains a few points of strength in the poll that could offer him a way to regain a footing in the race, and the feeble condition of his candidacy right now may well represent his low point in a campaign with 4 1/2 months still to go.
His approval rating is still narrowly positive on the issue of the economy, with 50% of voters giving him favorable marks compared with 45% saying the opposite. Should the fall campaign become a referendum on which candidate is better equipped to restore prosperity after the pandemic has subsided, that could give Trump a new opening to press his case.
The president is also still ahead of Biden among white voters without college degrees, who hold disproportionate influence in presidential elections because of how central the Midwest is to capturing 270 electoral votes.
Yet if Trump still has a significant measure of credibility with voters on the economy, he lacks any apparent political strength on the most urgent issues of the moment: the pandemic and the national reckoning on policing and race.
Nearly three-fifths of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including majorities of white voters and men. Self-described moderate voters disapproved of Trump on the coronavirus by a margin of more than 2-1.
Most of the country is also rejecting Trump’s call to reopen the economy as quickly as possible, even at the cost of exposing people to greater health risks. By a 21-point margin, voters said the federal government should prioritize containing the coronavirus, even if it hurts the economy, a view that aligns them with Biden.
Just a third of voters said the government should focus on restarting the economy even if that entails greater public-health risks.
That debate could become the central focus of the campaign in the coming weeks, as coronavirus outbreaks grow rapidly in a number of Republican-led states that have resisted the strict lockdown measures imposed in the spring by Democratic states like New York and California.
The public also does not share Trump’s resistance to mask wearing. The president has declined to don a mask in nearly all public appearances, even as top health officials in his administration have urged Americans to do so as a precaution against spreading the coronavirus. In the poll, 54% of people said they always wear a mask when they expect to be in proximity to other people, while another 22% said they usually wear a mask.
Just 22% said they rarely or never wear a mask.
Trump’s job approval on race relations was just as dismal. Sixty-one percent of voters said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of race, versus 33% who said they approved. By a similar margin, voters said they disapproved of his response to the protests after the death of Floyd.
Trump has sought several times in the last month to use demonstrations against the police as a political wedge issue, forcing Democrats to align themselves squarely either with law-enforcement agencies or with the most strident anti-police demonstrators.
The poll suggested most voters were rejecting that binary choice, as well as Trump’s harsh characterization of protesters: Large majorities said they had a positive overall assessment of both the Black Lives Matter movement and the police.
The picture of Biden that emerges from the poll is one of a broadly acceptable candidate who inspires relatively few strong feelings in either direction. He is seen favorably by about half of voters and unfavorably by 42%. Only a quarter said they saw him very favorably, equaling the share that sees him in very negative terms.
Trump, by contrast, is seen very favorably by 27% of voters and very unfavorably by 50%.
Harry Hoyt, 72, of York County in Southern Maine, said he has sometimes voted for Republican presidential candidates in the past and cast a grudging vote for Clinton in 2016. He felt better this time about his plan to vote for Biden.
“Biden would be a better candidate than Trump, simply because he’s a nice person,” Hoyt said. “One of the most important things to me is the character of the man in charge of our country.”
Significantly, one group that saw Biden as far more than just acceptable was black voters. Fifty-six percent of black respondents in the poll said they saw Biden very favorably, a far more enthusiastic judgment than from any other constituency.
The limited passion for Biden among other Democratic constituencies does not appear to be affecting his position against Trump. Though only 13% of people under 30 said they had a very favorable opinion of the former vice president, that group is backing Biden over Trump by 34 percentage points.
Nicholas Angelos, a 20-year-old voter in Bloomington, Indiana, who said he supported Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries, said he would vote for Biden as the “lesser of two evils.” He said he believed the former vice president would “try his best,” in contrast to Trump, whom he described as “an autocrat” and “anti-science.”
“We all have to compromise,” said Angelos, who described himself as very liberal. He added of Biden, “I don’t think he’s anything special.”
For the moment, voters also appear unpersuaded by one of the primary attack lines Trump and his party have used against Biden: the claim that, at age 77, he is simply too old for the presidency. Trump, 74, has mocked Biden’s mental acuity frequently over the last few months and his campaign has run television advertisements that cast Biden as absent-minded and inarticulate.
But three in five voters said in the poll that they disagreed with the claim that Biden was too old to be an effective president. The percentage of voters who agreed, 36%, exactly matched Trump’s existing support in the presidential race.
Lindsay Clark, 37, who lives in the suburbs of Salt Lake City, was among the voters who said she would probably vote for Trump because she was unsure Biden was “physically and mentally up to the task” of being president. But Clark expressed little admiration for Trump, whom she called unpresidential.
Clark, who voted for a third-party candidate in 2016, said she was hard-pressed to name something she really liked about Trump, eventually settling on the idea that he expressed himself bluntly.
“I was just trying to think if I could think of something off the top of my head that I was like, ‘Yes, I loved when you did that!’” she said of Trump. “And I kind of just can’t.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
© 2020 The New York Times Company
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Post by the Scribe on Jun 30, 2020 8:27:34 GMT
If the billionaire & corporate GOPCON overclass are allowed to get away with the same election shenanigans like they did in 2016 it is conceivable and probable Trump will get another 4 years. Doesn't matter how bad he is and was for America. conservatism.freeforums.net/thread/3/stolen-elections-voter-suppression-crow?page=1Behind in polls, Trump banks on replay of 2016AFP AFP•June 29, 2020
Donald Trump, pictured in Phoenix June 23, 2020, is lagging Democratic presidential rival Joe Biden in the polls (AFP Photo/SAUL LOEB)
Washington (AFP) - His poll numbers sinking four months from the US presidential election, Donald Trump invoked his 2016 victory Monday, saying he is confident history will repeat itself on November 3.
"Sorry to inform the Do Nothing Democrats, but I am getting VERY GOOD internal Polling Numbers," he tweeted, without saying what they were.
"Just like 2016, the @nytimes Polls are Fake! The @foxnews Polls are a JOKE!" he added, pointing to national polls that four years ago had Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the presidency.
Over the past several weeks, however, all national polls have pointed in the same direction: Trump well behind his Democratic rival Joe Biden.
The latest poll by The New York Times and Siena College has Biden with a 14-point lead over the current occupant of the White House.
Observers advise caution, stressing that there are still four months of campaigning left, but they also note that Biden's lead is significantly wider than Clinton's was at this point in 2016.
Polls in key battleground states also are a source of worry for the Trump team.
According to the Siena College survey, Trump is behind Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three states that enabled him to clinch victory in 2016.
"People want LAW, ORDER & SAFETY!" Trump proclaimed in Monday's tweet. It's a slogan he has embraced in recent weeks, amid an unyielding coronavirus epidemic and the most serious civil unrest over racial injustice in decades.
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