Post by the Scribe on Oct 12, 2020 22:17:06 GMT
Which Senate seats are likely to flip on Election Day? Here’s what oddsmakers say
www.yahoo.com/news/senate-seats-likely-flip-election-195705105.html
Summer Lin
Miami HeraldMon, October 12, 2020, 12:57 PM MST
As Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by double digits in national polls, bookmakers are predicting that six Senate seats will flip on Election Day.
As of Monday, Biden has a 10-point lead on Trump nationally, according to USA Today’s average of polling averages from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.
Biden is also leading Trump in 10 out of 11 swing states and increased his lead in seven states, including North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan, according to the publication.
The U.S. Senate is controlled by the GOP, with 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). With 35 seats up for grabs in the Nov. 3 election, 23 of which are currently held by Republicans, Democrats would need to win three or four seats to get a majority (three if Biden wins, four if Trump is reelected, due to the vice president’s role in breaking ties), according to the political website 270toWin.
Because senators tend to vote along party lines and a majority vote is required to pass legislation, the Senate majorities often determine which bills get passed on the chamber floor.
In order to gain a Senate majority, Democrats will likely have to win in Colorado, Maine, Arizona and North Carolina, according to The Washington Post. Cory Gardner of Colorado is likely to be the “most vulnerable” Republican senator, according to the outlet.
Oddsmakers predict that Alabama’s Senate seat will flip to Republican while Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina and Iowa’s seats is likely flip to the Democrats.
Here are the betting odds for some key Senate races, according to data released Monday by Bookies.us.
Alabama:
Republican challenger Tommy Tuberville has 1/8 odds, meaning that betting $800 will give back $100 in profit. Tuberville is favored to beat incumbent Democrat Doug Jones, who has 9/2 odds.
Arizona:
Betting odds show Arizona’s seat will flip from Republican to Democrat, with Republican incumbent Martha McSally having 7/2 odds and Mark Kelly have 1/6 odds.
Colorado:
Oddsmakers say Democrat John Hickenlooper with 1/7 odds will defeat Republican incumbent Cory Gardner with 4/1 odds.
Iowa:
Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield is the favorite to win with 4/5 odds, narrowly beating out Republican incumbent Joni Ernst, who has 10/11 odds.
Kentucky:
Oddsmakers say Kentucky is likely to remain under Republican control, as incumbent Mitch McConnell with 1/8 odds is heavily favored to beat Democratic challenger Amy McGrath, who has 9/2 odds.
Maine:
Democratic challenger Sara Gideon is favored to win the election with 4/11 odds, beating out Republican incumbent Susan Collins, who has 2/1 odds.
North Carolina:
Democrat Cal Cunningham has 4/6 odds of winning and is favored to beat Republican incumbent Thom Tillis, who has 11/10 odds.
South Carolina:
Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham is favored to keep his Senate seat with 4/9 odds, likely defeating Democrat Jaime Harrison, who has 13/8 odds.
Those predictions also line up with the odds released by Bookmaker, another betting site. For instance, McSally has +422 odds of winning compared to Kelly with -585 odds. That means wagering $100 would yield $422 for McSally while you’d have to bet $585 in order to win $100 for Kelly, since his win is more likely.
Bookmaker also has Ernst and Greenfield neck-to-neck in Iowa with Greenfield being the slight favorite. Ernst has -114 odds while Greenfield has -106.
Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting.
Politics
The week in polls: Biden hits double-digit lead in national average, surges in Florida, Michigan
William Cummings, USA TODAY
USA TODAYMon, October 12, 2020, 12:05 PM MST
The first week of polls conducted primarily after President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19 generally did not offer much to bolster the president's reelection hopes.
Biden continued to lead Trump in 10 of 11 swing states (though in Georgia and Ohio they are in a virtu tie) – and he expanded his lead in seven of those states, including big gains in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Nationally, Biden surged 2 percentage points to a more than 10-point lead, according to the USA TODAY average of averages, which is based on the polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. By comparison, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's lead between the two polling averages was 6.2 points at this time four years ago.
Last week: Trump trails in 10 of 11 swing states, plurality says Biden won 1st debate
National average
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
Last week: Biden 50.8%, Trump 42.7% (Biden +8.1)
Net change: Biden +2.0
RCP: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1%
FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%
At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.2
Should we believe the polls?: Polls show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump, but after 2016 ...
Swing state averages
Arizona: Biden +3.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.5%, Trump 45.2%
Last week: Biden 48.6%, Trump 45.3% (Biden +3.3)
Net change: None
Florida: Biden +4.0
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.5%, Trump 44.5%
Last week: Biden 47.9%, Trump 45.5%
Net change: Biden +1.6
Georgia: Biden +0.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.1%, Trump 46.9%
Last week: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.5%
Net change: Trump +0.3
Michigan: Biden +7.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.2%
Last week: Biden 49.7%, Trump 43.8%
Net change: Biden +1.4
Minnesota: Biden +9.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 41.1%
Last week: Biden 50.3%, Trump 41.5%
Net change: Biden +0.5
Nevada: Biden +6.4
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.2%, Trump 43.8%
Last week: Biden 49.2%, Trump 43.5%
Net change: Biden +0.7
North Carolina: Biden +2.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.5%
Last week: Biden 47.5%, Trump 46.5%
Net change: Biden +1.2
Ohio: Biden +0.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.3%
Last week: Biden 48.1%, Trump 46.6%
Net change: Trump +0.8
Pennsylvania: Biden +7.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.0%, Trump 43.8%
Last week: Biden 50.4%, Trump 44.2%
Net change: Biden +1.0
Texas: Trump +3.0
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.8%, Biden 45.8%
Last week: Trump 48.3%, Biden 45.5%
Net change: Trump +0.2
Wisconsin: Biden +6.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.9%, Trump 43.6%
Last week: Biden 50.2%, Trump 44.1%
Net change: Biden +0.2
More: These 6 swing states are pivotal in the White House race. But what are the keys to winning them?
Senate races
Colorado: Hickenlooper stays ahead of Gardner
Polling has been relatively sparse on the race between incumbent GOP Sen. Cory Gardner and former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, but the surveys that have been done have consistently found Hickenlooper with a lead, though it has ranged from 5 to 18 percentage points since May.
A new poll from 9NEWS/Colorado Politics, conducted Oct. 1-6 by SurveyUSA, continued that trend, finding Hickenlooper with a 9-point lead (48%-39%) over Gardner among likely voters in the state.
Georgia: Two Senate run-offs possible
In Georgia, if no Senate candidate wins more than 50%, there will be a run-off election between the top two vote-getters. Because of a special election this year, both of Georgia's seats in the Senate are on the ballot. According to three polls this week, none of the candidates in either race has the support of more than 50% of the voters, which means both races could end up in a run-off.
In the special election, Rev. Raphael Warnock, a Democratic candidate leads the pack with 41% of the vote, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released Saturday, while the Republican vote is primarily split between Sen. Kelly Loeffler (24%) and Rep. Doug Collins (22%). In the other race, PPP found a virtual dead-heat between incumbent GOP Sen. David Perdue (43%) and his Democratic challenger, Jon Ossoff (44%).
A WSB-TV /Landmark Communications poll of 600 likely voters released Friday also found Perdue (47%) and Ossoff (46%in a virtual tie) and Warnock leading by 10-points in the special election. A University of Georgia survey found Perdue well ahead of Ossoff, 49%-41%, but still 1 point shy of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.
Montana: Poll finds Daines with big lead over Bullock
Former Gov. Steve Bullock has won three statewide elections in Montana, which Trump won by 20 points in 2016, but he is trailing far behind in his quest to do it a fourth time against incumbent GOP Sen. Steve Daines, according to an Emerson College poll conducted Oct. 5-7.
That poll found Daines up 9 points over Bullock, 52%-43%, among likely voters.
Poll-pourri
Election legitimacy doubts, fears of violence
A YouGov poll of 1,999 registered voters found that nearly half – 47% – disagree with the idea that the election "is likely to be fair and honest." And that slightly more than half – 51% – won't "generally agree on who is the legitimately elected president of the United States."
And 56% said they expect to see "an increase in violence as a result of the election."
Biden seen as more caring
Almost two in three (64%) Americans say Biden cares about those who lost their job, while just more than half (52%) say the same about Trump, according to a survey from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape Project.
Trump gets lowest rating yet on COVID response
Americans' approval of Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic has reached its lowest point in a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll since the outbreak first began to hit the U.S.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 6-8, after the president left the hospital where he had been treated for COVID-19 and returned to the White House. It found 38% approve and 59% disapprove of Trump's handling of the public health crisis.
Should we trust polls after the upset in 2016?
Though experts caution that polls should be viewed as a snapshot in time, they say there are multiple reasons they are unlikely to see the same volatility and unreliability they seemed to suffer from in 2016 – also noting that many national polls were not far off that year.
One big reason: there are few undecided voters this year. Another: while Clinton's lead was shrinking at this stage in 2016, Biden's is growing.
Contributing: Rebecca Morin and Ledyard King, USA TODAY; Meredith Newman, Delaware News Journal
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump down double-digits, Biden surges in Florida: The week in polls
www.yahoo.com/news/senate-seats-likely-flip-election-195705105.html
Summer Lin
Miami HeraldMon, October 12, 2020, 12:57 PM MST
As Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by double digits in national polls, bookmakers are predicting that six Senate seats will flip on Election Day.
As of Monday, Biden has a 10-point lead on Trump nationally, according to USA Today’s average of polling averages from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.
Biden is also leading Trump in 10 out of 11 swing states and increased his lead in seven states, including North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan, according to the publication.
The U.S. Senate is controlled by the GOP, with 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). With 35 seats up for grabs in the Nov. 3 election, 23 of which are currently held by Republicans, Democrats would need to win three or four seats to get a majority (three if Biden wins, four if Trump is reelected, due to the vice president’s role in breaking ties), according to the political website 270toWin.
Because senators tend to vote along party lines and a majority vote is required to pass legislation, the Senate majorities often determine which bills get passed on the chamber floor.
In order to gain a Senate majority, Democrats will likely have to win in Colorado, Maine, Arizona and North Carolina, according to The Washington Post. Cory Gardner of Colorado is likely to be the “most vulnerable” Republican senator, according to the outlet.
Oddsmakers predict that Alabama’s Senate seat will flip to Republican while Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina and Iowa’s seats is likely flip to the Democrats.
Here are the betting odds for some key Senate races, according to data released Monday by Bookies.us.
Alabama:
Republican challenger Tommy Tuberville has 1/8 odds, meaning that betting $800 will give back $100 in profit. Tuberville is favored to beat incumbent Democrat Doug Jones, who has 9/2 odds.
Arizona:
Betting odds show Arizona’s seat will flip from Republican to Democrat, with Republican incumbent Martha McSally having 7/2 odds and Mark Kelly have 1/6 odds.
Colorado:
Oddsmakers say Democrat John Hickenlooper with 1/7 odds will defeat Republican incumbent Cory Gardner with 4/1 odds.
Iowa:
Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield is the favorite to win with 4/5 odds, narrowly beating out Republican incumbent Joni Ernst, who has 10/11 odds.
Kentucky:
Oddsmakers say Kentucky is likely to remain under Republican control, as incumbent Mitch McConnell with 1/8 odds is heavily favored to beat Democratic challenger Amy McGrath, who has 9/2 odds.
Maine:
Democratic challenger Sara Gideon is favored to win the election with 4/11 odds, beating out Republican incumbent Susan Collins, who has 2/1 odds.
North Carolina:
Democrat Cal Cunningham has 4/6 odds of winning and is favored to beat Republican incumbent Thom Tillis, who has 11/10 odds.
South Carolina:
Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham is favored to keep his Senate seat with 4/9 odds, likely defeating Democrat Jaime Harrison, who has 13/8 odds.
Those predictions also line up with the odds released by Bookmaker, another betting site. For instance, McSally has +422 odds of winning compared to Kelly with -585 odds. That means wagering $100 would yield $422 for McSally while you’d have to bet $585 in order to win $100 for Kelly, since his win is more likely.
Bookmaker also has Ernst and Greenfield neck-to-neck in Iowa with Greenfield being the slight favorite. Ernst has -114 odds while Greenfield has -106.
Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting.
Politics
The week in polls: Biden hits double-digit lead in national average, surges in Florida, Michigan
William Cummings, USA TODAY
USA TODAYMon, October 12, 2020, 12:05 PM MST
The first week of polls conducted primarily after President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19 generally did not offer much to bolster the president's reelection hopes.
Biden continued to lead Trump in 10 of 11 swing states (though in Georgia and Ohio they are in a virtu tie) – and he expanded his lead in seven of those states, including big gains in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Nationally, Biden surged 2 percentage points to a more than 10-point lead, according to the USA TODAY average of averages, which is based on the polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. By comparison, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's lead between the two polling averages was 6.2 points at this time four years ago.
Last week: Trump trails in 10 of 11 swing states, plurality says Biden won 1st debate
National average
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
Last week: Biden 50.8%, Trump 42.7% (Biden +8.1)
Net change: Biden +2.0
RCP: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1%
FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%
At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.2
Should we believe the polls?: Polls show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump, but after 2016 ...
Swing state averages
Arizona: Biden +3.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.5%, Trump 45.2%
Last week: Biden 48.6%, Trump 45.3% (Biden +3.3)
Net change: None
Florida: Biden +4.0
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.5%, Trump 44.5%
Last week: Biden 47.9%, Trump 45.5%
Net change: Biden +1.6
Georgia: Biden +0.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.1%, Trump 46.9%
Last week: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.5%
Net change: Trump +0.3
Michigan: Biden +7.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.2%
Last week: Biden 49.7%, Trump 43.8%
Net change: Biden +1.4
Minnesota: Biden +9.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 41.1%
Last week: Biden 50.3%, Trump 41.5%
Net change: Biden +0.5
Nevada: Biden +6.4
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.2%, Trump 43.8%
Last week: Biden 49.2%, Trump 43.5%
Net change: Biden +0.7
North Carolina: Biden +2.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.5%
Last week: Biden 47.5%, Trump 46.5%
Net change: Biden +1.2
Ohio: Biden +0.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.3%
Last week: Biden 48.1%, Trump 46.6%
Net change: Trump +0.8
Pennsylvania: Biden +7.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.0%, Trump 43.8%
Last week: Biden 50.4%, Trump 44.2%
Net change: Biden +1.0
Texas: Trump +3.0
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.8%, Biden 45.8%
Last week: Trump 48.3%, Biden 45.5%
Net change: Trump +0.2
Wisconsin: Biden +6.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.9%, Trump 43.6%
Last week: Biden 50.2%, Trump 44.1%
Net change: Biden +0.2
More: These 6 swing states are pivotal in the White House race. But what are the keys to winning them?
Senate races
Colorado: Hickenlooper stays ahead of Gardner
Polling has been relatively sparse on the race between incumbent GOP Sen. Cory Gardner and former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, but the surveys that have been done have consistently found Hickenlooper with a lead, though it has ranged from 5 to 18 percentage points since May.
A new poll from 9NEWS/Colorado Politics, conducted Oct. 1-6 by SurveyUSA, continued that trend, finding Hickenlooper with a 9-point lead (48%-39%) over Gardner among likely voters in the state.
Georgia: Two Senate run-offs possible
In Georgia, if no Senate candidate wins more than 50%, there will be a run-off election between the top two vote-getters. Because of a special election this year, both of Georgia's seats in the Senate are on the ballot. According to three polls this week, none of the candidates in either race has the support of more than 50% of the voters, which means both races could end up in a run-off.
In the special election, Rev. Raphael Warnock, a Democratic candidate leads the pack with 41% of the vote, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released Saturday, while the Republican vote is primarily split between Sen. Kelly Loeffler (24%) and Rep. Doug Collins (22%). In the other race, PPP found a virtual dead-heat between incumbent GOP Sen. David Perdue (43%) and his Democratic challenger, Jon Ossoff (44%).
A WSB-TV /Landmark Communications poll of 600 likely voters released Friday also found Perdue (47%) and Ossoff (46%in a virtual tie) and Warnock leading by 10-points in the special election. A University of Georgia survey found Perdue well ahead of Ossoff, 49%-41%, but still 1 point shy of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.
Montana: Poll finds Daines with big lead over Bullock
Former Gov. Steve Bullock has won three statewide elections in Montana, which Trump won by 20 points in 2016, but he is trailing far behind in his quest to do it a fourth time against incumbent GOP Sen. Steve Daines, according to an Emerson College poll conducted Oct. 5-7.
That poll found Daines up 9 points over Bullock, 52%-43%, among likely voters.
Poll-pourri
Election legitimacy doubts, fears of violence
A YouGov poll of 1,999 registered voters found that nearly half – 47% – disagree with the idea that the election "is likely to be fair and honest." And that slightly more than half – 51% – won't "generally agree on who is the legitimately elected president of the United States."
And 56% said they expect to see "an increase in violence as a result of the election."
Biden seen as more caring
Almost two in three (64%) Americans say Biden cares about those who lost their job, while just more than half (52%) say the same about Trump, according to a survey from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape Project.
Trump gets lowest rating yet on COVID response
Americans' approval of Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic has reached its lowest point in a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll since the outbreak first began to hit the U.S.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 6-8, after the president left the hospital where he had been treated for COVID-19 and returned to the White House. It found 38% approve and 59% disapprove of Trump's handling of the public health crisis.
Should we trust polls after the upset in 2016?
Though experts caution that polls should be viewed as a snapshot in time, they say there are multiple reasons they are unlikely to see the same volatility and unreliability they seemed to suffer from in 2016 – also noting that many national polls were not far off that year.
One big reason: there are few undecided voters this year. Another: while Clinton's lead was shrinking at this stage in 2016, Biden's is growing.
Contributing: Rebecca Morin and Ledyard King, USA TODAY; Meredith Newman, Delaware News Journal
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump down double-digits, Biden surges in Florida: The week in polls