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Post by the Scribe on Oct 3, 2020 20:01:06 GMT
‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelectionwww.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.
By DAVID SIDERS
06/15/2020 04:30 AM EDT
By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one-term president. The economy is a wreck, the coronavirus persists, and his poll numbers have deteriorated.
But throughout the Republican Party’s vast organization in the states, the operational approach to Trump’s re-election campaign is hardening around a fundamentally different view.
Interviews with more than 50 state, district and county Republican Party chairs depict a version of the electoral landscape that is no worse for Trump than six months ago — and possibly even slightly better. According to this view, the coronavirus is on its way out and the economy is coming back. Polls are unreliable, Joe Biden is too frail to last, and the media still doesn’t get it.
“The more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for Trump,” said Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C., one of several rural counties in that swing state that shifted from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. “We’re calling him ‘Teflon Trump.’ Nothing’s going to stick, because if anything, it’s getting more exciting than it was in 2016.”
This year, Stephens said, “We’re thinking landslide.”
Five months before the election, many state and county Republican Party chairs predict a close election. Yet from the Eastern seaboard to the West Coast and the battlegrounds in between, there is an overriding belief that, just as Trump defied political gravity four years ago, there’s no reason he won’t do it again.
Andrew Hitt, the state party chairman in Wisconsin, said that during the height of public attention on the coronavirus, in late March and early April, internal polling suggested “some sagging off where we wanted to be.”
But now, he said, “Things are coming right back where we want them … That focus on the economy and on re-opening and bringing America back is resonating with people.”
In Ohio, Jane Timken, the state party chair, said she sees no evidence of support for Trump slipping. Jennifer Carnahan, the chairwoman of the Minnesota Republican Party, said the same. And Lawrence Tabas, the chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, went so far as to predict that Trump would not only carry his state, but beat Biden by more than 100,000 votes — more than twice the margin he mustered in 2016.
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“Contrary to what may be portrayed in the media, there’s still a high level of support out there,” said Kyle Hupfer, chairman of the Indiana Republican Party. He described himself as “way more” optimistic than he was at this point in 2016.
The Republican Party apparatus that Trump heads in 2020 is considerably different than the one that looked at him warily in 2016. At the state level, many chairs who were considered insufficiently committed to the president were ousted and replaced with loyalists. But their assessments would be easier to dismiss as spin if the perception of Trump’s durability did not reach so far beyond GOP officialdom.
When pollsters ask Americans who they think will win the election — not who they are voting for themselves — Trump performs relatively well. And if anything, Trump’s field officers appear more bullish than Trump and some of his advisers. Even the president, while lamenting what he views as unfair treatment by his adversaries, has privately expressed concerns about his poll numbers and publicly seemed to acknowledge he is down.
“If I wasn’t constantly harassed for three years by fake and illegal investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia, and the Impeachment Hoax, I’d be up by 25 points on Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats,” he said on Twitter last week. “Very unfair, but it is what it is!!!”
Yet in the states, the Republican Party's rank-and-file are largely unconvinced that the president is precariously positioned in his reelection bid.
“The narrative from the Beltway is not accurate,” said Joe Bush, chairman of the Republican Party in Muskegon County, Mich., which Trump lost narrowly in 2016. “Here in the heartland, everybody is still very confident, more than ever.”
At the center of the disconnect between Trump loyalists’ assessment of the state of the race and the one based on public opinion polls is a distrust of polling itself. Republicans see an industry that maliciously oversamples Democrats or under-samples the white, non-college educated voters who are most likely to support Trump. They say it is hard to know who likely voters are this far from the election. And like many Democrats, they suspect Trump supporters disproportionately hang up on pollsters, under-counting his level of support.
Ted Lovdahl, chairman of the Republican Party in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, said he has friends who will tell pollsters “just exactly the opposite of what they feel.”
When he asked one of them why, his friend told him, “I don’t like some of their questions. It’s none of their business what I do.”
Recalling that polls four years ago failed to predict the outcome, Jack Brill, acting chairman of the local Republican Party in Sarasota County, Fla., said, “I used to be an avid poll watcher until 2016 … Guess what? I’m not watching polls.”
Instead, as they prepare for a post-lockdown summer of party picnics and parades, Republican Party organizers sense the beginnings of an economic recovery that, if sustained, is likely to power Trump to a second term. They also see a more immediate opening in the civil unrest surrounding the death of George Floyd.
“The other side is overplaying its hand, going down roads like defunding the police and nonsense like that."
Michael Burke, chairman of the Republican Party in Pinal County, Arizona
“The further and further the Democrats tack left, and the further you get to where it’s the defunding the police,” said Scott Frostman, GOP chairman in Wisconsin’s Sauk County, which Obama won easily in 2012 but flipped to Trump four years later. “I think we have the opportunity as Republicans to talk to people a little bit more about some common sense things.”
Biden has rejected a national movement to defund police departments. But elections are often painted in broad strokes, and local party officials expect Trump — with his law and order rhetoric — will be the beneficiary of what they see as Democratic overreach.
“The other side is overplaying its hand, going down roads like defunding the police and nonsense like that,” said Michael Burke, chairman of the Republican Party in Pinal County, Arizona, a Trump stronghold in 2016.” “Most of the American people are looking like that saying, ‘Really?’”
By most objective measures, Trump will need something to drag Biden down. He has fallen behind Biden in most swing state polls, and he lags the former vice president nationally by more than 8 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. A Gallup poll last week put Trump’s approval rating at just 39 percent, down 10 percentage points from a month ago. Democrats appear competitive not only in expected swing states, but in places such as Iowa and Ohio, which Trump won easily in 2016.
Little of that data is registering, however. State and local officials point to Trump’s financial and organizational advantages and see Biden as a weak opponent. They’re eager for Trump to eviscerate him in debates. “While the Democrats have been spending their time playing Paper Rock Scissors on who their nominee is going to be, we’ve been building an army,” said Terry Lathan, chair of the Alabama Republican Party.
James Dickey, chairman of the Texas Republican Party, said it took Biden “days to figure out how to even successfully operate, or communicate out of a bunker” and that he “has clearly not been able to deal with any real challenging interview.”
Local officials brush off criticism of Trump by Republican fixtures such as former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who said last week that Trump “lies all the time.” They dismiss press accounts of the race. Dennis Coxwell, the chairman of Georgia’s Warren County Republican Party, said: “It’s gotten to a point where I cannot believe anything that the news media says.”
Many admire Trump’s bluntest instincts — the same ones that have cost him among women and independent voters, according to polls. “The left called George Bush all kinds of names and just savaged him all the time … and Bush never said a word,” said Burke, who worked for Trump in the late 1980s and early 1990s overseeing his fleet of helicopters. “It was frustrating for those of us on the right. Now a guy comes along, you attack him, you’re getting it back double barrel. And everybody’s sitting around saying, ‘Yeah, that’s right, give it to ‘em.’”
And most of all, they put their confidence in an expectation that the economy will improve by fall.
Doyle Webb, chairman of the Arkansas Republican Party and general counsel to the Republican National Committee, said the only concern that he would have about Trump’s reelection prospects is “if the economy had another downturn.”
“But I don’t see that happening,” Webb said.
Instead, he predicted an improving job outlook and a return to “the old Clinton mantra: ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’”
“I think that people will be happy,” Webb said, “and [Trump] will be re-elected.”
It’s a widely-held view. In Pennsylvania last week, Veral Salmon, the Republican Party chairman of the state’s bellwether Erie County, measured enthusiasm for Trump by the large number of requests he has received for Trump yard signs. In Maine, Melvin Williams, chairman of the Lincoln County Republican Committee, saw it in a population he said is “getting sick of this bullshit,” blaming coronavirus-related shutdowns on Democrats. And across the country, in heavily Democratic San Francisco, John Dennis, the chairman of the local GOP, was encouraged by the decreasing number of emails from the “Never Trump” crowd.
Not in his city, but nationally, Dennis said, “I’m pretty confident that [Trump] is going to pull it off.”
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Post by the Scribe on Oct 3, 2020 20:05:57 GMT
I can explain this easily. Most Americans know (consciously or subconsciously) that the GOPCONS are masters at election theft especially when we have a system in the presidential race that is rigged against the majority. GOP election shenanigans especially in RED states will almost assuredly put Trump or whoever their party selects into the White House. The only way to stop this is to get rid of the electoral college altogether OR for Democrats, Moderates, Independents to OVERWHELMINGLY VOTE and to make sure their VOTE GETS COUNTED.
That being true, the next best thing to do is to KEEP THE HOUSE and TURN THE SENATE BLUE by as big a margin possible. If Trump recovers from COVID 19 and the GOP once again steals the election for him THE NEXT FOUR YEARS WILL BE INSUFFERABLE. We will otherwise be in a dictatorship and an authoritarian regime. Trump and his deplorables on the "right" are looking for any way to bust the heads of the Left. The red hats will be the new brown shirts. Only a Democratic Party HOUSE and SENATE can stop him and the right wing agenda.Gallup Poll: Majority of Americans Think Trump Will Win Election!!www.helleniscope.com/2020/10/02/gallup-poll-majority-of-american-think-trump-will-win-election/
Από Nick Stamatakis -2 Οκτωβρίου, 20201160
EDITOR’S NOTE (Nick Stamatakis): Regarding the polls, we are re-living 2016… This Gallup poll has the reputation of being extremely accurate and shows a big 4-point jump in Trump’s approval rating to 46% (the highest of his presidency was last February at 49%). This increase happened just days after the debate! But the biggest “surprise” was the “perception of victory” by the voters: 56% expect Trump to win, while only 40% think that the winner will be Biden!
How do I explain this? The same way I explained it 4 years ago: There is a huge number of Trump voters who do not respond to the polls or fake their responses. Why do they fake their responses? Partly because they are afraid of some form of social retribution if it is known that they support Trump! My friends, when someone is scared to express their political opinion then this is a sign of oppression or totalitarianism! Those of us who grew up in such a totalitarian climate (either in 1967-74 military dictatorship Greece or elsewhere) can instantly recognize fascism – and this time we live a form of fascism from the Left!… Censorship by social media and other venues is just one form of it…
Finally, my prediction is that this time around the number of voters who are hiding their feelings for Trump but will turn out and vote for him will be much higher than it was in 2016. Why? Because now the voters know exactly who Trump is – he has produced results! They are not voting for a “TV personality turned politician” as in 2016. They are voting for the President who saved the country… Will it be a landslide? This is up to all of us… For the sake of the country, it has to be a landslide!…
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SOURCE:JUSTTHENEWS.COM
The good news for President Trump: His job approval has hit its highest point since May, Gallup reported on Thursday. The bad news: His approval rating is 46%, while his disapproval rating is 52%.
But the latest Gallup poll included one fascinating finding.
“Regardless of whom they personally support, 56% of Americans expect Trump to prevail over Biden in the November election, while 40% think Biden will win,” wrote Megan Brenan in an article released by the polling firm. “Although majorities of partisans think their party’s candidate will win, Republicans are more likely to believe Trump will win (90%) than Democrats are to think Biden will (73%). Fifty-six percent of independents predict that Trump will win.”
The pollster doesn’t offer an explanation as to how Trump can be underwater on his approval rating but still be the majority pick to win the election. But Gallup said the finding might not be great news for Trump.
“Looking back, Gallup has asked Americans for their predictions in the late summer or fall of every presidential election year from 1996 through 2012, and an ABC NewsIWashington Post poll included a comparable question in 2016,” according to the article.
“In each of these polls, Americans accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote, though not the winner of the Electoral College,” Brenan wrote. “That is, in 2000 and 2016, the public predicted Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, respectively, would win the election. Although both of these Democratic candidates won the popular vote, George W. Bush and Trump, respectively, won the most electoral votes and ultimately became president.”
“The prediction of a Trump victory is not consistent with the average of recent national presidential vote-preference polls,” cautioned the polling organization, “which show Biden with a significant lead, but it is consistent with Americans’ expectation of a victory for the incumbent president in every race in which one has been running. The two most recent elections in which an incumbent lost — 1980 and 1992 — occurred before Gallup began asking Americans to handicap the presidential election race.”
As reference, in 2016, just 31% of those surveyed thought Trump would win, while 58% thought Clinton would win. In 2000, 56% thought Gore would win, just 35% thought Bush would come out on top.
The finding on independents also appears interesting: Fifty-six percent thinks Trump will win, while just 39% predict Biden will win.
There has been talk that Trump supporters have gone underground and he may actually have more support than indicated in national polls, which routinely show Trump trailing, sometimes by double digits.
A poll last month by Monmouth University of 401 Pennsylvania voters found that a majority of voters think there are Trump supporters out there who aren’t being counted.
“The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
“Most voters (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. Less than half that number (27%) believe there are secret voters for Biden. The suspicion that a secret Trump vote exists is slightly higher in swing counties (62%) and Clinton counties (61%) than in Trump counties (51%),” the pollsters wrote.
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