Post by the Scribe on Sept 28, 2020 19:19:07 GMT
Point to these facts whenever you hear RepubliCONServative shock jocks on conservative media trying to justify their own existence and superiority. Dems need to fight back more and always be armed with the facts and fact checkers. Conservatives never use fact checkers and for good reason. That is why I am keeping records of all of these articles in proboards. Easy access with headlines, links and articles to prove my points against the menace of conservatism.
Murders Are Rising. Blaming a Party Doesn't Add Up.
news.yahoo.com/murders-rising-blaming-party-doesnt-121402436.html
The New York Times
Jeff Asher, The New York Times•September 28, 2020
APTOPIX Portland Protest
A protester screams at police as as Portland protests continue reaching 100 consecutive nights on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2020, in Portland, Ore. Hundreds of people gathered for rallies and marches against police violence and racial injustice Saturday night in Portland, Oregon, as often violent nightly demonstrations that have happened for 100 days since George Floyd was killed showed no signs of ceasing.(AP Photo/Paula Bronstein)
Violent crime is expected to be addressed during the first presidential debate Tuesday, and President Donald Trump has long attacked “Democrat cities” for not doing enough to stop it. In the run-up to the 2018 midterms, he called Democrats the “party of crime.”
Moreover, last week the Department of Justice branded three cities with Democratic leadership (New York City, Portland, Oregon, and Seattle) as “anarchist” jurisdictions that “have permitted violence and destruction of property to persist.”
A deeper dive into publicly available 2020 crime data paints a more complicated picture than the party-driven explanation Trump and the Department of Justice have offered. More cities are run by Democratic mayors than by Republican ones, but murder is rising pretty much everywhere, regardless of a mayor’s political party. And it’s worth noting that the Department of Justice refers to “destruction of property” as a reason the three cities are permitting “anarchy,” but the FBI does not classify vandalism as a major crime.
The FBI on Monday reported a tiny decrease (0.2%) in the nation’s murder rate in 2019. The U.S. violent crime rate fell slightly for the fourth straight year in this official report, and the property crime rate fell for the 18th straight year, to the lowest level since 1963.
They’re the kind of numbers a president might ordinarily want to brag about, but that is unlikely to happen. A big leap in murders during this pandemic year makes the normalcy of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report on crime in America in 2019 feel almost jarring — like something from long ago. And Trump has continued to frame the issue as one of increasing crime in cities run by Democrats.
The FBI recently released information on crime in 2020 through June. Though of limited value because it lacks data on individual cities, it found a nearly 15% increase in murder nationally and almost an 8% drop in property crime, matching trends I and others found earlier this summer. (The overall violent crime trend appears to be roughly even relative to last year.)
Overall, in 59 cities with murder data available through at least July this year, murder is up 28% relative to the matching time frame in 2019.
Sampling data from big cities has proved a reliable way of forecasting national trends in crime, and the recent sample shows a jump in murder in cities with Democratic and Republican mayors alike.
Big cities tend to overstate national crime trends, so a smaller rise in murder would be expected nationally, but a 15% increase in murders nationally in 2020 would be the largest one-year increase in modern American history in terms of both raw numbers and percent change (reliable data on national murder trends began in 1960).
It’s a stark figure, but for some perspective, even with a rise in murder in 2020 of 15% to 20%, the nation’s murder rate would be roughly in line with where it was in the mid-2000s and about 40% below where it stood 30 years ago.
Murder is up 29% in Democrat-led cities in the sample and up 26% in cities with a Republican mayor relative to the same time frame in 2019, and 5 of the 13 cities on pace for record-high murder counts have Republican mayors.
Murder has increased in the three “anarchist jurisdiction” cities singled out by the DOJ, but both violent and property crime are down relative to 2019 in all three. New York City, Portland and Seattle are on pace to have murder rates roughly at or below the national average in 2020, despite the rises in each city. There has been a sizable increase in gun violence in New York since the start of this summer, but for some wider context, this year’s level of murder and shootings is roughly where it was in 2012. The city is still on pace to have 80% fewer murders this year than it did in 1990, when it had over 2,000.
The longer-term outlook for murder in America is unclear. Some of the pandemic-related mental health and economic stresses that may be contributing to this year’s rise in murder could begin to ease in 2021. Some of the mistrust flowing in both directions between the police and the public could start to abate, too. It’s plausible that this year’s sharp murder increase will be a one-year anomaly in many places, but too little is known about what is driving the change to determine an effective policy response.
What is clear is that murder is rising across a wide swath of America — irrespective of ruling political party and of designations of “anarchist” havens — while other types of crime are generally flat or falling.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
© 2020 The New York Times Company
Murders Are Rising. Blaming a Party Doesn't Add Up.
news.yahoo.com/murders-rising-blaming-party-doesnt-121402436.html
The New York Times
Jeff Asher, The New York Times•September 28, 2020
APTOPIX Portland Protest
A protester screams at police as as Portland protests continue reaching 100 consecutive nights on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2020, in Portland, Ore. Hundreds of people gathered for rallies and marches against police violence and racial injustice Saturday night in Portland, Oregon, as often violent nightly demonstrations that have happened for 100 days since George Floyd was killed showed no signs of ceasing.(AP Photo/Paula Bronstein)
Violent crime is expected to be addressed during the first presidential debate Tuesday, and President Donald Trump has long attacked “Democrat cities” for not doing enough to stop it. In the run-up to the 2018 midterms, he called Democrats the “party of crime.”
Moreover, last week the Department of Justice branded three cities with Democratic leadership (New York City, Portland, Oregon, and Seattle) as “anarchist” jurisdictions that “have permitted violence and destruction of property to persist.”
A deeper dive into publicly available 2020 crime data paints a more complicated picture than the party-driven explanation Trump and the Department of Justice have offered. More cities are run by Democratic mayors than by Republican ones, but murder is rising pretty much everywhere, regardless of a mayor’s political party. And it’s worth noting that the Department of Justice refers to “destruction of property” as a reason the three cities are permitting “anarchy,” but the FBI does not classify vandalism as a major crime.
The FBI on Monday reported a tiny decrease (0.2%) in the nation’s murder rate in 2019. The U.S. violent crime rate fell slightly for the fourth straight year in this official report, and the property crime rate fell for the 18th straight year, to the lowest level since 1963.
They’re the kind of numbers a president might ordinarily want to brag about, but that is unlikely to happen. A big leap in murders during this pandemic year makes the normalcy of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report on crime in America in 2019 feel almost jarring — like something from long ago. And Trump has continued to frame the issue as one of increasing crime in cities run by Democrats.
The FBI recently released information on crime in 2020 through June. Though of limited value because it lacks data on individual cities, it found a nearly 15% increase in murder nationally and almost an 8% drop in property crime, matching trends I and others found earlier this summer. (The overall violent crime trend appears to be roughly even relative to last year.)
Overall, in 59 cities with murder data available through at least July this year, murder is up 28% relative to the matching time frame in 2019.
Sampling data from big cities has proved a reliable way of forecasting national trends in crime, and the recent sample shows a jump in murder in cities with Democratic and Republican mayors alike.
Big cities tend to overstate national crime trends, so a smaller rise in murder would be expected nationally, but a 15% increase in murders nationally in 2020 would be the largest one-year increase in modern American history in terms of both raw numbers and percent change (reliable data on national murder trends began in 1960).
It’s a stark figure, but for some perspective, even with a rise in murder in 2020 of 15% to 20%, the nation’s murder rate would be roughly in line with where it was in the mid-2000s and about 40% below where it stood 30 years ago.
Murder is up 29% in Democrat-led cities in the sample and up 26% in cities with a Republican mayor relative to the same time frame in 2019, and 5 of the 13 cities on pace for record-high murder counts have Republican mayors.
Murder has increased in the three “anarchist jurisdiction” cities singled out by the DOJ, but both violent and property crime are down relative to 2019 in all three. New York City, Portland and Seattle are on pace to have murder rates roughly at or below the national average in 2020, despite the rises in each city. There has been a sizable increase in gun violence in New York since the start of this summer, but for some wider context, this year’s level of murder and shootings is roughly where it was in 2012. The city is still on pace to have 80% fewer murders this year than it did in 1990, when it had over 2,000.
The longer-term outlook for murder in America is unclear. Some of the pandemic-related mental health and economic stresses that may be contributing to this year’s rise in murder could begin to ease in 2021. Some of the mistrust flowing in both directions between the police and the public could start to abate, too. It’s plausible that this year’s sharp murder increase will be a one-year anomaly in many places, but too little is known about what is driving the change to determine an effective policy response.
What is clear is that murder is rising across a wide swath of America — irrespective of ruling political party and of designations of “anarchist” havens — while other types of crime are generally flat or falling.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
© 2020 The New York Times Company