Post by the Scribe on Sept 9, 2020 20:59:24 GMT
It all depends on WHO counts the vote. Who places the good voting equipment in what district. Who cuts all the voting locations in minority districts causing long lines that will discourage people from voting. Who purges the voting rolls right before the election so when people show up they either can't vote or are put on provisional ballots that will never be counted. Who disseminates phony election information, dates and times to confuse or scare voters away. That is how Trump took the 2016 election. Those polled fully intended to vote at the time they were polled. Problem is for many of the above reasons their vote didn't count. Those polls were correct just like they are correct now. The difference will be how effective GOP shenanigans will be this year.
Based on that I fully expect Trump to get another 4 years but I highly doubt he will finish his term. And for that matter I doubt Biden would finish either. We would be looking at a Pence or Harris presidency to finish the term. And just by chance if Trump lost the election look for him to resign before January, install Pence and then get some kind of pardon for all of his crimes before Biden took office.
High turnout by Trump’s base won’t be enough to get him re-elected
www.yahoo.com/news/high-turnout-trump-won-t-021316407.html
Tom Boggioni
SalonSeptember 6, 2020, 7:13 PM MST
US President Donald Trump disembarks after arriving on Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, September 26, 2019, after returning from New York. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images
According to an analysis provided to the Washington Post, even if Donald Trump's fanbase turns out in high numbers in November, that might not be enough for him to be re-elected.
www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/turnout-base-swing-voters-polling-trump/2020/09/03/2833ff94-ed59-11ea-99a1-71343d03bc29_story.html?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-c-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
Writing for the Post, Robert Griffin of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group. claims the numbers don't work out for the embattled president if he can't expand his pool of potential voters.
Stating that the lead that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has over Trump has remained remarkably stable, Griffin wrote that those in the president's camp who state turnout will be the key to his re-election are fooling themselves.
"Turnout-centric strategies have become the go-to move for underdog campaigns: Despite the polls, the argument goes, our candidate has a chance if a particular group turns out in droves. During the Democratic primary race, for example, supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) claimed that an unprecedented wave of young and working-class voters would sweep their man to victory — a deluge that did not materialize," he wrote before pointing out that, in a high turnout election, increases in voting groups are relative across the board.
"History tells us that it is unusual to see a substantial increase in turnout for just one specific group. Voters live in shared political environments that shape perceptions about an election's importance. As such, it's more common to see turnouts among different groups rise and fall together," he explained. "Take the 2016 election. While the turnout rate of White voters without college degrees did go up by about three percentage points compared with 2012 — and this group disproportionately supported Trump — the increase was not far from the two-percentage-point rise among Hispanic, Asian and White college-educated voters."
As he notes, the real battle id for so-called swing voters where the president is already faltering.
"While House Republicans won a narrow plurality of the vote in 2016, House Democrats won the national vote by almost nine points just two years later. An analysis by the Democratic data firm Catalist suggests that nearly 90 percent of the shift between those two elections was because people changed their minds," he elaborated. "If Trump wins in November, it's much more likely that he'll have done so by strategically increasing turnout and winning over persuadable voters than by radically increasing turnout alone.
www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf
www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2018.pdf
medium.com/@yghitza_48326/revisiting-what-happened-in-the-2018-election-c532feb51c0
He then warned, "A huge surge in turnout among your favored candidate's supporters is nice to think about. Just don't bank on it."
You can read more here. www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/turnout-base-swing-voters-polling-trump/2020/09/03/2833ff94-ed59-11ea-99a1-71343d03bc29_story.html?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-c-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
Based on that I fully expect Trump to get another 4 years but I highly doubt he will finish his term. And for that matter I doubt Biden would finish either. We would be looking at a Pence or Harris presidency to finish the term. And just by chance if Trump lost the election look for him to resign before January, install Pence and then get some kind of pardon for all of his crimes before Biden took office.
High turnout by Trump’s base won’t be enough to get him re-elected
www.yahoo.com/news/high-turnout-trump-won-t-021316407.html
Tom Boggioni
SalonSeptember 6, 2020, 7:13 PM MST
US President Donald Trump disembarks after arriving on Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, September 26, 2019, after returning from New York. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images
According to an analysis provided to the Washington Post, even if Donald Trump's fanbase turns out in high numbers in November, that might not be enough for him to be re-elected.
www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/turnout-base-swing-voters-polling-trump/2020/09/03/2833ff94-ed59-11ea-99a1-71343d03bc29_story.html?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-c-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
Writing for the Post, Robert Griffin of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group. claims the numbers don't work out for the embattled president if he can't expand his pool of potential voters.
Stating that the lead that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has over Trump has remained remarkably stable, Griffin wrote that those in the president's camp who state turnout will be the key to his re-election are fooling themselves.
"Turnout-centric strategies have become the go-to move for underdog campaigns: Despite the polls, the argument goes, our candidate has a chance if a particular group turns out in droves. During the Democratic primary race, for example, supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) claimed that an unprecedented wave of young and working-class voters would sweep their man to victory — a deluge that did not materialize," he wrote before pointing out that, in a high turnout election, increases in voting groups are relative across the board.
"History tells us that it is unusual to see a substantial increase in turnout for just one specific group. Voters live in shared political environments that shape perceptions about an election's importance. As such, it's more common to see turnouts among different groups rise and fall together," he explained. "Take the 2016 election. While the turnout rate of White voters without college degrees did go up by about three percentage points compared with 2012 — and this group disproportionately supported Trump — the increase was not far from the two-percentage-point rise among Hispanic, Asian and White college-educated voters."
As he notes, the real battle id for so-called swing voters where the president is already faltering.
"While House Republicans won a narrow plurality of the vote in 2016, House Democrats won the national vote by almost nine points just two years later. An analysis by the Democratic data firm Catalist suggests that nearly 90 percent of the shift between those two elections was because people changed their minds," he elaborated. "If Trump wins in November, it's much more likely that he'll have done so by strategically increasing turnout and winning over persuadable voters than by radically increasing turnout alone.
www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf
www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2018.pdf
medium.com/@yghitza_48326/revisiting-what-happened-in-the-2018-election-c532feb51c0
He then warned, "A huge surge in turnout among your favored candidate's supporters is nice to think about. Just don't bank on it."
You can read more here. www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/turnout-base-swing-voters-polling-trump/2020/09/03/2833ff94-ed59-11ea-99a1-71343d03bc29_story.html?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-c-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans