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Post by the Scribe on May 25, 2020 5:31:19 GMT
Black Swan
What is a Black Swan?
A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
A black swan is an extremely rare event with severe consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand, though many claim it should be predictable after the fact.
Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy, and because they cannot be predicted, can only be prepared for by building robust systems.
Reliance on standard forecasting tools can both fail to predict and potentially increase vulnerability to black swans by propagating risk and offering false security.
www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp
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Post by the Scribe on May 25, 2020 5:31:52 GMT
Trump faces ‘black swan’ threat to the economy and reelectionwww.politico.com/news/2020/02/24/trump-threat-coronavirus-reelection-economy-117272
Even Trump‘s leading allies acknowledge the deadly coronavirus could present an existential political threat for the president in an election year.
Stock markets tumbled around the world. The number of coronavirus cases mushroomed in advanced nations like Italy, Japan and South Korea. And travel bans expanded as leaders confronted the nightmarish prospect of a spreading virus swallowing their nations.
President Donald Trump’s top aides faced an increasingly urgent threat Monday with potentially monumental implications: a global outbreak knocking down the U.S. economy and walloping markets in an election year, all against accusations about whether the Trump administration had mismanaged and underfunded a critical response with American lives on the line. |
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Post by the Scribe on May 25, 2020 5:33:41 GMT
The Coronavirus Could Be the Black Swan of 2020The wheels could come off the global economy—and if they do, Trump will double down on racism, xenophobia, and the politics of fear.
By Sasha AbramskyTwitterYESTERDAY 5:45 AM
www.thenation.com/article/society/coronavirus-economy-trump-election/
Onlookers watch a “carnival virus” confront a “coronavirus” in a parade in Düsseldorf, Germany, on February 24. (Ina Fassbender / AFP via Getty Images)
The Signal this week: Increasingly, the coronavirus, or COVID-19, as it is now officially called, is looking like the sort of unexpected, black swan event that scrambles all existing expectations for months, possibly years.
Unemployment is currently low, but last week the stock market got a serious case of the jitters as it became clear just how much global supply chains and international travel are being disrupted. Other key indicators, measuring business activity and the risks associated with holding short-term versus long-term government debt, also began flashing red. This week’s trading opened in Asia with a run on the markets, and the cycle of fear-driven selling is likely to dominate trading in the United States as well.
www.bbc.com/news/business-51591070
Japan’s economy has already begun a severe contraction; Europe’s looks set to follow. In China, consumer spending on big-purchase items is down this month—by north of 90 percent for cars. South Korea is now in emergency mode. So is Iran. With one country after another locking down borders, cutting off transit routes, and prohibiting the docking of container ships from hot-zone regions, it could be only a matter of time before economic growth grinds to a halt in the United States.
www.autoblog.com/2020/02/21/china-coronavirus-car-sales-plunge-92-percent/
As recently as January it was considered a given that Trump would be heading into the election riding a wave of economic good news. But he could actually be facing a global public-health calamity and economic crisis. If so, February and March of 2020 may come to be seen by economic historians as somewhat similar to October 1929, when the wheels came off and the global economy collapsed.
How will the administration respond to this, given the hollowing out of the professional bureaucracies and the purging of appointees who aren’t deemed sufficiently enthusiastic about Trump? If recent developments are any indication, not well. Trump is busy cleaning house post-impeachment, with top officials under orders to fire anyone who questions his leadership, and with cabinet secretaries and department heads now being told the White House will choose their deputies.
www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/us/politics/trump-disloyalty-turnover.html
Trump’s national security team is woefully unprepared for a pandemic. Since 2017, the administration has left a series of top public health and epidemic control jobs unfilled, despite repeated warnings by public health experts that this was tempting fate. Senator Angus King has introduced legislation in an attempt to remedy this deficiency, but there’s no sign the administration is heeding the calls. What matters to this president is not professional competence but sycophantic loyalty. And since Trump has said the outbreak will end with the coming of spring, it’s unlikely his officials will stand up to him and say otherwise.
www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-trump-administration-is-ill-prepared-for-a-global-pandemic/2017/04/08/59605bc6-1a49-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html
www.king.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/in-face-of-coronavirus-threat-king-introduces-legislation-to-strengthen-americas-public-health-resilience
www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-doctors-coronavirus-prediction_n_5e41948dc5b6b70887058c58
If the crisis does indeed spiral out of control, expect more xenophobic, immigrant-bashing responses. Trump is already bottling up immigrants, many of them desperately ill and in need of specialized medical treatment, south of the US-Mexico border. He’s already blaming immigrants for any and every societal woe. He’s already running an election campaign that openly panders to racial and ethnic prejudices.
www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/us/politics/trump-asylum-remain-in-mexico.html
If pandemic conditions set in, these trends could intensify. If he is robbed of the ability to crow about the economy, Trump will lash out even more aggressively against foreigners. In times of fear and panic, such messages all too often resonate.
Progressives need to hone their responses to these changing conditions. If they don’t, the Black Swan moment could swamp them. |
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Post by the Scribe on May 25, 2020 5:34:09 GMT
EDITORS' PICK140,337 viewsJan 27, 2020, 10:20am The Coronavirus Is A Black Swan Event That May Have Serious Repercussions For The U.S. Economy And Job MarketJack Kelly Senior Contributor
(Photo by NICOLAS ASFOURI / AFP) (Photo by NICOLAS ASFOURI/AFP via Getty Images) AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
A black swan event is a term used on Wall Street that refers to a rare and unpredictable occurrence that is beyond what is expected and has severe consequences. It's derived from European explorers who had previously thought that all swans were white and only white, as that was all they knew. They were overcome with shock and confusion when Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered the existence of black swans in Australia.
The coronavirus is a black swan event, which may have serious consequences for your job, the stock market and global economy.
The United States economy has been strong with record-setting high levels of employment. The stock market has rebounded incredibly since the financial crisis, increasing the net worth of many Americans.
Historically, when the stock market goes relatively straight up, there is an expectation of a correction somewhere down the road. A correction is about a 5 to 10% drop in value of stocks. It's viewed as necessary, like clearing out the dead brush in a forest to prevent a future fire. Even the wisest minds on Wall Street admit that they can’t anticipate where the next correction will come from and what damage it may bring. It now seems that the coronavirus is that black swan event.
The coronavirus is a large family of viruses, which include severe acute respiratory syndrome. An outbreak of a new coronavirus that began in Wuhan, a city in China with roughly 11 million people, and has already contributed to the deaths of at least 81 people in China. The virus has spread throughout China and other countries, including Thailand, Hong Kong, the U.S., Taiwan, Australia, Macau, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, France, Canada, Vietnam and Nepal. It's estimated that about 3,000 people have contracted the virus so far.
China has enacted measures to limit the movement of its people. This is especially challenging since the virus started around the Chinese Lunar New Year, which is known as the country’s biggest travel period. The government has quarantined more than 50 million people. This hasn’t completely stopped people from evacuating. The mayor of Wuhan said that 5 million people have already left the city. He also admitted that the city did not release information about the virus and suggested that it was suppressed by government authorities. The health minister of China said the coronavirus is increasing in its virulence. People can be contagious before they even exhibit symptoms. This is dangerous, as it makes people appear healthy when they’re not.
Major shops, restaurants and tourist destinations are shuttering their doors across China. To avoid spreading the coronavirus, companies in China have advised staff to work from home. Employees returning from impacted areas are being told not to show up to work.
Global stock and bond markets have been hit by mounting worries. Investors are afraid of how this will play out. China’s growth will surely stagnate, they contend. International commerce will slow down. Little is known about the virus and there is no guidance on how it will affect people and the economy.
Corporate CEOs and top executives desire certainty and resent unpredictable events. In this instance, there is an extraordinary high level of uncertainty regarding how bad this virus will spread and the damage that it will cause.
The chances are likely that companies will temporarily pull back until there is clarity. China and neighboring countries are shutting down restaurants, hotels, resorts and other businesses that may spread the virus. This will negatively impact China’s economy. In light of the global nature of business, the U.S. will feel its effects.
It's reasonable to believe that for the near-term period of time, stocks will fall in value, hiring will temporarily slow down, new corporate initiatives will be placed on hold and the overall business climate will be fearful.
In the past, we’ve effectively dealt with and overcome other fast-spreading diseases that seemed horrific and were able to go back to business and our lives. Unless this becomes a horror-movie type of virus, which it most likely won’t, there will be cures developed for those afflicted and antidotes to prevent others from getting sick.
In an interview with CNBC, Dr. Paul Stoffels, the chief scientific officer of Johnson & Johnson, said that he believes the drugmaker can create a vaccine to fight against the coronavirus. Stoffels stated, “We have dozens of scientists working on this, so we’re pretty confident we can get something made that will work and stay active for the longer term.”
With courage, ingenuity and global cooperation, the fear will subside, cures will be found and things will go back to normal. |
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Post by the Scribe on May 25, 2020 5:34:34 GMT
How scared we should be of any viral epidemic has to do with a number of factors but mostly with the Case Fatality Rate. The regular flu has a case fatality rate that is a fraction of one percent. Because it is so widespread each year that is what gives us many deaths. The corona virus is estimated to have a Case Fatality Rate of anywhere between 2% and 12% but we can't be sure. Probably around 3-5%. One is more likely to die from the corona virus than from the regular flu if you catch it. That is what worries people. The other thing is people remain symptom free but can spread it before they are even aware they have it.
The US has a poor, disjointed, costly healthcare system which sets up an event like this to likely ravage the US. There is a large number of uninsured people in the US who likely will not seek medical care until they are deadly sick. When they do, they will primarily crowd ERs like they do now. Great vector for further spread. If they have a job, they will likely continue working since they need the money. No such thing as self-quarantine...
This is yet ANOTHER GREAT REASON to have UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE COVERAGE. The uninsured living among the insured is a threat to the health and well being to all. I can imagine what a mess "daycare centers" will be or any location populated with children or the elderly. They will be the first to go.
If this virus peters out like it could there will be others, many worse to take its place thanks to factors like global warming, climate change, bio-weaponry and even eugenics or just plain incompetence-politics from our leaders.Coronavirus: Four maps and charts that show how serious the deadly virus isChelsea Ritschel
The IndependentFebruary 26, 2020, 9:59 AM MST
www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-four-maps-charts-depict-163128391.html
As coronavirus continues to spread to countries across the globe, health organisations are urging governments to prepare for the worst.
Currently, there are 81,191 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 2,768 people have died from the respiratory virus.
This week, federal health experts have warned America that it is only a matter of time before the country is hit with the virus. "It's not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but more really a question of when it will happen - and how many people in this country will have severe illness," Dr Nancy Messonnier of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said.
As of Tuesday, 14 people have been diagnosed in the US, “in addition to 39 cases among repatriated persons from high-risk settings,” bringing the total to 53 cases, according to the CDC.
Although the current risk remains low, Americans have been urged to prepare “with the expectation that this could be bad,” Messonnier said, adding that “disruption to everyday life may be severe”.
To help the public understand the seriousness of coronavirus, health organisations have released graphs that illustrate the global spread of the disease.
Here are four maps and charts that explain how bad coronavirus is:
This graph, which has gone viral on social media, shows how coronavirus compares to H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and SARS in terms of confirmed cases and numbers of deaths.
In the graph, you can track how coronavirus started off slower than Ebola, before outnumbering all of the other diseases.
Countries, territories or areas with reported confirmed cases of Covid-19, 23 February 2020 (WHO)
In this map distributed by the World Health Organisation (WHO), confirmed cases of the virus in countries, terroritories or areas as of 23 February are illustrated with red dots of varying sizes.
The graph shows both how the virus has spread to multiple countries, and the number of cases in each country.
This map from the China Global Television Network (CGTN) shows the number of confirmed cases and deaths in Europe as the virus spreads.
Currently, Italy has the most confirmed cases of the virus with 323, followed by Germany with 18.
A graph from the CDC shows the countries where coronavirus has been confirmed (CDC)
A map from the CDC shows all of the locations around the globe with confirmed cases of coronavirus. So far, the virus as spread throughout China and to 31 other countries.
For a live tracker of the spread of the virus, you can check Johns Hopkins dashboard here, where it displays the number of people infected, the number of deaths, and the number of people recovered from the virus. |
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Post by the Scribe on May 25, 2020 5:35:53 GMT
Media Bites 2/24/20 4:18pm Rush Limbaugh Is Sure Coronavirus Is 'An Effort To Bring Down Trump'crooksandliars.com/2020/02/rush-limbaugh-sure-coronavirus-effortMedal of Freedom winner and wheezy old man Rush Limbaugh has hatched the ultimate conspiracy theory.
By Karoli Kuns
Rush Limbaugh is trying very hard to go out in a blaze of glory, it appears. Receiving the Medal of Freedom and a diagnosis of terminal lung cancer is not slowing him down one bit. Even as Trump longs to run against Bernie Sanders, Rush is already queuing up the commie chat to scare listeners into thinking Bernie Sanders is going to let the United States become an annex of China.
The coronavirus was today's topic of discussion, and Rush began by hatching a nice conspiracy theory about it.
"It probably is a ChiCom laboratory experiment that is in the process of being weaponized," he said. "All superpower nations weaponize bioweapons. They experiment with them. The Russians, for example, have weaponized fentanyl. Now, fentanyl is also not what it is represented to be."
Well I guess Rush would know, wouldn't he? Is this how he explains away his addiction? By pretending it's a Russian government plot to kill Americans?
No seriously, he knows ALL about Fentanyl.
But inhaling a little fentanyl dust is not going to cause you to lose consciousness and stop breathing as they predict or depict on cop shows. It’s dangerous. Don’t misunderstand. But it isn’t the way it’s portrayed in popular criminal TV shows, cop shows, and so forth and so on.
He goes on and on, attributing the Chechen takeover of a theater and subsequent death of hostages due to an unidentified substance as an example of how fentanyl has been weaponized, and how the coronavirus, which is almost certainly a biological weapon that got free is being weaponized against business, not so China can get an economic advantage...no, not that.
"I think the coronavirus is an effort to get Trump," he concluded. "It’s one of the latest in a long line of efforts that the drive-by media is making to somehow say that Trump and capitalism are destroying America and destroying the world."
And then he drops the punch line, because what would a conspiracy theory be without someone to blame?
It came from a country that Bernie Sanders wants to turn the United States into a mirror image of: Communist China. That’s where it came from. It didn’t come from an American lab. It didn’t escape from an American research lab. It hasn’t been spread by Americans. It starts out in a communist country. Its tentacles spread all across the world in numbers that are not big and not huge, but they’re being reported as just the opposite. Just trying to keep it all in perspective.
This is just stupid. Let's be honest here. The only thing that's communist about China is, well...nothing. China is purely capitalist with a President-for-life leading the country. It's authoritarian and capitalist, the way Trump wants this country to be. If anyone is going to remake the country into China's image, it's not going to be Bernie Sanders.
It was, however, a perfect opportunity for Rush to do what the WHO has warned against:
Since the emergence of COVID-19 we have seen instances of public stigmatization among specific populations, and the rise of harmful stereotypes. Stigmatization could potentially contribute to more severe health problems, ongoing transmission, and difficulties controlling infectious diseases during an epidemic. |
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Post by the Scribe on May 25, 2020 5:36:56 GMT
Rush Limburgher may be right about Trump vis-à-vis the Coronavirus...but not in the way he thinks, of course. Might this be a political self-suicide on the part of Der F***enfuhrer? |
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Post by the Scribe on May 25, 2020 5:37:20 GMT
2 California Community College Students Exposed To Mystery Coronavirus Patient; S.Korea Nears 1,000 New Cases In 48 Hours: Live UpdatesProfile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Thu, 02/27/2020 - 20:21
www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/japans-abe-closes-schools-nationwide-south-korea-confirms-505-new-cases-surpassing
Summary:
Nigeria confirms first case
South Korea reports 256 new cases
WHO says outbreak in Iran likely worse than official numbers suggest; outbreak could go in "any direction"
Cali monitoring 8400, 28 cases in the state
China reports 327 new cases and 44 new deaths on Thursday
Dozens of hospital staffers who treated US coronavirus patient with 'unknown' origin being 'monitored'
Facebook cancels annual 'F8' developers' conference
700 in New York asked to 'self-isolate'
Iran confirms 26 deaths, vice president for women and family affairs infected
The Netherlands has confirmed its first case
Northern Ireland confirms first case
Norway confirms three new cases
Germany confirms 14 new cases
Lagarde: Not yet time for ECB to intervene to fight economic backlash of outbreak
HHS says risk to public remains "low"
Italy reports 3 more deaths, bringing total to 17; total cases hit 650
Pence, Azar appoint Mnuchin, Kudlow & Surgeon General Adams to Coronavirus Task Force
Starbucks says it has reopened 85% of Chinese restaurants
Azar: Sonoma case might be 'community transmission'
Salvini meets with Italian president amid national unity government speculation
South Korean new cases surpass China's new cases as SK confirms 505 new cases
China, Japan close school nationwide
CDC fears 'community outbreak' in Sonoma County after discovering first US case of "unknown origin"
CDC says patient from Solano county
Saudi Arabia suspends pilgrimages to Holy Sites
Hawaiian Airlines suspends service to South Korea
Brazil's neighbors take steps to keep virus out |
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