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Post by the Scribe on Oct 21, 2022 22:10:26 GMT
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Post by the Scribe on Oct 25, 2022 3:39:37 GMT
conservatism.freeforums.net/thread/9978/trumps-economic-recordHEADLINE JUST BEFORE TRUMP LEFT OFFICE: Trump will leave office with a historically bad economic record
Updated 4:41 PM ET, Sun December 13, 2020
Trump's throwback "America First" agenda has failed to restore the old economic engine that powered an earlier era's prosperity. On Trump's watch, industrial production has fallen. The Federal Reserve says the manufacturing sector fell into recession in 2019 even before the coronavirus pandemic hit.
Last week was the 38th in a row in which at least 700,000 Americans filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits.
Holiday-season lines at food banks dramatize the scale of human suffering. More abstract measures, such as the US trade deficit and ratio of government debt to the size of the economy, have also worsened during Trump's term.
"Trump's economic record ranks near or at the bottom compared with other presidents," concludes Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi, who compared the economic results of all presidents from the last 70 years. "The economy under his watch has performed very poorly."
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Post by the Scribe on Oct 25, 2022 3:50:07 GMT
Gas prices are on their way down, supply chains are finally improving, wages are up, unemployment is at record lows, covid is manageable, energy companies coming out of bankruptcy, inflation has slowed ALL IN TIME for the GOP CONS to take credit for it if they make substantial gains in the mid terms. And most Americans will be stupid enough to believe that all improvements happened because of THEM but not that the mess was CAUSED by THEM and Trump in the first place.
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Post by the Scribe on Dec 3, 2022 8:21:10 GMT
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Post by the Scribe on Dec 3, 2022 8:28:53 GMT
Biden stumps on job growth, as voters dread inflation
abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/biden-stumps-job-growth-voters-dread-inflation-
President Joe Biden has notched an envious record on jobs, with 10.3 million gained during his tenure
ByJOSH BOAK Associated Press
November 5, 2022, 5:01 AM
President Joe Biden smiles as he walks onto stage after being introduced by Taryne Haskamp to speak about the CHIPS and Science Act, a measure intended to boost the semiconductor industry and scientific research, at communications company ViaSat, Fri
WASHINGTON -- President Joe Biden has notched an envious record on jobs, with 10.3 million gained during his tenure. But voters in Tuesday's midterm elections are far more focused on inflation hovering near 40-year highs.
That's left the president trying to convince the public that the job gains mean better days are ahead, even as fears of a recession build.
Presidents have long trusted that voters would reward them for strong economic growth, but inflation has thrown a monkey wrench into the already difficult probability of Democrats’ retaining control of the House and Senate.
Economic anxieties have compounded as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly hiked its benchmark interest rates to lower inflation and possibly raise unemployment. Mortgage costs have shot upwards, while the S&P 500 stock index has dropped more than 20% so far this year as the world braces for a possible downturn.
Biden is asking voters to look beyond the current financial pain, saying that what matters are the job gains that he believes his policies are fostering. The government reported Friday that employers added 261,000 jobs in October as the unemployment rate bumped up to 3.7%.
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Roughly 740,000 manufacturing jobs have been added since the start of Biden's presidency, a figure that the president says will keep rising because of his funding for infrastructure projects, the production of computer chips and the switch to clean energy sources.
“America is reasserting itself — it's as simple as that,” Biden said in a Friday speech. “We also know folks are still struggling with inflation. It's our number one priority.”
Yet the president is also warning that a Republican majority in Congress could make inflation worse by seeking to undo his programs and treating payments on the federal debt as a bargaining chip instead of an obligation to honor.
His challenge is that the party in power generally faces skeptical voters in U.S. midterms and inflation looms over the public mindset more than job growth.
“If you have a job, it’s small comfort to know that the job market is strong if at the same time you feel like every paycheck is worth less and less anyway,” said pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. “Inflation is such political poison because voters are reminded every day whenever they spend money that it is a problem we are experiencing.”
As Biden tries to fend off fears that inflation is causing the country to slide into a recession, his chief evidence of the economy’s resilience is the continued job growth.
“As we see the economy as a whole, we do not see it going into a recession,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters in anticipation of the latest jobs report.
Going into the election, Biden and Democrats are already at a disadvantage. Voters generally favor the party out of the White House in midterms, giving Republicans an automatic leg up. When Yale University economist Ray Fair looked at past elections, his model forecast that Democrats would get just 46.4% of the national vote largely because Biden was in the Oval Office.
Fair's analysis suggests that inflation basically erased the political boost that Democrats could have gotten from strong economic growth during three quarters in 2021. Even if the economy is top of mind for many voters, the conflicting forces of past growth and high inflation cancel out each other.
This makes the Democrats' vote share roughly the same as suggested by the historical trend, Fair concluded.
Recent Stories from ABC News
But inflation compounds the obstacles for a president who has tried to convey optimism as he tours the country in the run-up to the elections. Research in social psychology and behavioral economics generally shows that people often focus on the negatives and can block out the positives.
“People pay more attention to bad news than to good news and are more likely to retain and recall bad news,” said Matthew Incantalupo, a political scientist at Yeshiva University.
Incantalupo's research looks at how voters absorb economic news. When unemployment is low, as it is now, he said, voters generally think about jobs as a personal issue — rather than a systemic one involving government policies. But most think about inflation as a social problem beyond any person's control, unless that individual happens to run the Fed.
“When it is high, everyone experiences it at least a little bit, and there really is no individual way to avoid it,” Incantalupo said. “Voters are going to look to government for remedies under those circumstances, and in many cases that will result in them punishing incumbents, even in the presence of other positive news about the economy.”
Republican candidates have specifically said Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package last year overheated the economy, causing prices to rise alongside the job gains that they claim would have happened anyway as the pandemic receded. They have also said that Biden should have loosened restrictions on oil production, in order to increase domestic output and lower gasoline prices.
Recent Stories from ABC News
House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy — who could become speaker if the GOP wins a House majority — has hammered Biden on high prices. As Biden has warned that Republicans who deny the outcome of the 2020 election are a threat to democracy, the California congressman countered that what voters care about are the costs of gas and groceries.
“President Biden is trying to divide and deflect at a time when America needs to unite — because he can’t talk about his policies that have driven up the cost of living,” McCarthy tweeted this past week. “The American people aren’t buying it.”
Still, inflation is not solely a domestic issue. After Russia invaded Ukraine, energy and food costs rose and suddenly flipped the global dynamics as inflation rose faster in parts of the world with less aggressive coronavirus relief than the U.S. Annual inflation in the euro zone is a record 10.7%, much higher than the 8.2% in the U.S.
Meanwhile, growth has slowed in China, the pace of world trade is slipping and Saudi Arabia-led OPEC+ has cut oil production in order to prop up prices. And because the Fed is raising rates to lower domestic inflation, the dollar has increased in value and essentially exported higher prices to the rest of the world.
This has left U.S. voters in the curious position of not necessarily blaming the president for inflation, even as they disapprove of his economic leadership.
An October poll by AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs captured this split. More than half of voters say that prices are higher because of factors beyond Biden's control. But just 36% approve of his economic leadership.
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Post by the Scribe on Jan 1, 2023 3:42:11 GMT
Yahoo Finance
This week in Bidenomics: It was a pretty good year
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/this-week-in-bidenomics-it-was-a-good-year-151825001.html
Rick Newman·Senior Columnist
Fri, December 30, 2022 at 8:18 AM MST
If current economic trends stay in place, 2022 will end up as a year in which danger flared, alarms blared, and emergency intervention did just enough to prevent disaster.
The biggest economic story of 2022 was inflation. It peaked at 9.1% in June, the same month gasoline prices hit $5.02 per gallon. Inflation has been moderating ever since. The year-over-year inflation rate is now 7.1%. Gas prices have plunged to around $3.15. Improving confidence surveys suggest consumers have noticed.
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/this-week-in-bidenomics-too-much-holiday-cheer-160145973.html
Stay ahead of the market
www.yahoo.com/plus/finance?ncid=adb_300322587_363422_146401_ZmluYW5jZS1kZXNrdG9wLXdlYi1hcnRpY2xlLWJvZHk_278__91d98c26-fff4-40f2-8be3-c15b445c243e
The Inflation Police, aka the Federal Reserve, acknowledged it waited too long to head off rising prices. The Fed’s first interest-rate hike came in March, when inflation was already 8.6%. The Fed has now hiked rates by nearly 4 percentage points this year, one of the fastest tightening cycles ever. The Fed wants to push inflation all the way back down to 2%, but might accept 3% for a period of time if everything else seems okay.
What happens in 2023 will let us know if 2022 ended well. One prominent group of forecasters predicts inflation will fall below 3% by the end of 2023, with the unemployment rate inching up from 3.7% now to 4.4% a year from now. That would be the desired “soft landing” in which the economy cools, but there’s no recession, or else a very mild one. That could set the stage for a robust rebound in the second half of 2023, as wages finally get ahead of inflation and the purchasing power of consumers and businesses improves.
www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q4-2022
If that’s how 2023 goes, it would give President Biden a potent tailwind during the last two years of his [first?] presidential term. Biden’s first big stumble came in the summer of 2021, during the botched withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and the fall of the U.S.-backed Afghan government. Biden sank further still as he insisted inflation would be temporary and rapidly rising prices proved him wrong.
His approval rating bottomed at a terrible 38% in July 2022, shortly after gas prices hit the highest levels ever. That suggested Republicans would romp in the November midterm elections, which are often a referendum on how well the current president is performing.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
[Follow Rick Newman on Twitter, sign up for his newsletter or sound off.]
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But Biden and his fellow Democrats rallied. In August, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which, contrary to its name, mainly finances green energy projects to help cut carbon emissions. The bill included many provisions Americans broadly support, while more controversial social-welfare measures didn’t make the cut. As a result, there’s no meaningful backlash to the IRA that will dog Biden the way opposition to the Affordable Care Act did President Obama after that law passed in 2010.
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/inflation-reduction-act-whats-in-the-now-sinema-approved-bill-aimed-at-lowering-costs-for-americans-205141884.html
The CHIPS Act, which Biden also signed in August, enjoyed some bipartisan support and addressed the growing need to offset the Chinese government’s support for key industries. This is a new U.S. foray into “industrial policy,” and there could be unintended consequences. But for now Biden keeps showing up at factory groundbreakings to brag about tech production returning to America.
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/heres-what-in-the-semiconductor-bill-as-the-senate-nears-a-crucial-vote-162706068.html
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/why-congress-is-embracing-corporate-welfare-130822178.html
www.yahoo.com/news/biden-visits-arizona-semiconductor-plant-in-latest-celebration-of-the-chips-act-220015724.html
After two negative quarters of GDP growth to start the year, output recovered, with GDP growing at a solid 3.2% pace in the third quarter. The unemployment rate remains remarkably low, at 3.7%. Economists express disbelief that employers are still creating 335,000 new jobs per month, which is not supposed to happen when the Fed is jacking up interest rates.
Biden and his fellow Democrats dodged a bullet in the midterms, holding onto the Senate and losing the House by a much narrower margin than expected. They could, or should, have lost both houses decisively. The president’s party almost always loses ground in midterm elections, and that’s especially true if there’s an economic headwind. High inflation certainly qualifies.
Republicans botched the midterms. They ran some absurd Trumpian candidates and were on the wrong side of the electorate on abortion rights, which is a top 3 campaign issue now that the conservative Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Biden can make a decent case that Democrats outperformed on the merits. In terms of legislative accomplishments, Biden signed more big bills in two years than most presidents sign in four. Biden has also shown indispensable leadership in his support for Ukraine as it battles Russian invaders.
The socialist left within the Biden’s party wasn’t able to foist government-run everything on voters. Democrats look like they can actually get things done. Biden’s self-proclaimed pragmatism looks somewhat legit.
There’s one missing piece. Biden’s approval rating is still under water, at a weak 43%. It has improved a bit as the inflation rate has fallen, but voters clearly remain reticent of Biden. For his approval to get back above 50%, he probably needs a much sharper drop in inflation. If we’re going to have a recession, it needs to start and end quickly, with no more anticipatory dread. The Fed needs to see enough progress against inflation to stop raising rates, allowing the housing market to stabilize. It would be nice if stocks bounced back after a bear market in 2022.
Biden can feel pretty good about the way 2022 is ending, but he needs steady improvement in 2023 if he wants to become a popular president again. He says he plans to run for reelection in 2024, even though he’ll be 82. Biden’s age and health will factor into that decision, but so will the direction of the economy in 2023.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman
www.yahoo.com/author/rick-newman/?.tsrc=fin-srch
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Post by the Scribe on Jan 27, 2023 5:21:36 GMT
Deficit was well north of three trillion, double digit unemployment, raging pandemic Trump administration totally gave up on dealing with and an economy in a tailspin when Trump handed over the keys to Biden.
Deficit now dipping below 1 trillion, healthcare costs are down, infrastructure being built, 3.5% unemployment, economy still growing, wages up.
And oh yeah... Under Trump we couldn't even find toilet paper on a regular basis... That also not a problem anymore. (Admittedly they probably solved it by recycling classified documents but still...)
Anyone who would trade the condition Trump left this place in for the situation today under Biden is either delusional or lying through their teeth.
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Post by the Scribe on Aug 31, 2023 9:33:11 GMT
Benzinga
'The Country Was Thriving': Joe Rogan Says That 'More Things Were Getting Done' When Donald Trump Was President — Unemployment Was Down, Regulations Relaxed. Is He Right?
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/country-thriving-joe-rogan-says-162219415.html
Jing Pan
Wed, August 30, 2023 at 9:22 AM MST·5 min read
Both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have garnered their share of staunch supporters and vocal critics. But economically, which president has done better for America?
Podcaster Joe Rogan believes the answer is clear: Trump.
"It looked like [Trump's] policies were actually effective, and it looked like unemployment was down, business was building, regulations were being relaxed, more things were getting done," Rogan said during a recent episode of "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast.
Rogan also commented on the ongoing Trump investigations.
"Now you have the intelligence agencies colluding to keep a guy from being president that was president during a time where the country was thriving economically," he said.
When the episode's guest Patrick Bet-David asked Rogan whether Trump would get his vote, Rogan replied, "He'd get my vote before Biden."
"I never thought that Biden was going to make it — I never thought that he was going to be functional," he added.
Take a closer look at the performance of both leaders in the realms of unemployment and regulations.
Unemployment
When Trump took office in January 2017, the unemployment rate was 4.7%, continuing a downward trend that started after the 2007-2009 recession.
By September 2019, the unemployment rate had dropped to 3.5%, the lowest rate since December 1969.
But the landscape dramatically shifted in early 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Because of lockdowns and reduced economic activity, the unemployment rate in the U.S. surged to 14.7% in April 2020.
Following this peak, the latter part of 2020 saw a gradual decrease in unemployment as the economy started to reopen.
By the time Biden began his term in January 2021, America's economic recovery was well underway, and the unemployment rate had come down to 6.3%.
The trajectory continued under the Biden administration. According to the latest jobs report from the Labor Department, the unemployment rate was 3.5% in July 2023.
Regulations
Trump wanted to reduce the regulatory burden on businesses, so his administration pursued a deregulation agenda.
The Trump administration rolled back numerous environmental regulations, including those related to emissions from power plants and fuel economy standards for automobiles. He also made efforts to relax certain banking regulations put in place after the 2008 financial crisis, like those in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
In January 2017, Trump signed an executive order that required federal agencies to eliminate two regulations for every new one they proposed.
Biden's approach is markedly different. One of his first actions in office was to rejoin the Paris Agreement on climate change. His administration has also moved to reinstate and expand environmental regulations and to focus on a clean energy transition.
In light of the bank failures in March, the Biden administration urged regulators to implement stricter rules on the sector. The proposed reforms include increasing liquidity requirements for mid-sized banks, annual capital stress tests and requiring banks to submit "living wills" — plans of how they would be wound down without stressing the rest of the banking system in the event that they fail.
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Who's Better For Investors?
The stock market saw noteworthy fluctuations under both presidents, even though the overall trend was positive.
During Trump's four-year term, the S&P 500 went from 2,271 to approximately 3,800, marking an impressive 67% increase. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was considered a significant catalyst for stocks during the early part of Trump's tenure. While the market crashed at the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, a rapid rebound followed.
Biden began his term with the S&P 500 at around 3,800. While 2021 saw a market rally, 2022 brought a significant decline as the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates aggressively to combat rampant inflation. Stocks are coming back in 2023, with the S&P 500 currently sitting at 4,497.
The stock market is inherently volatile and is influenced by a multitude of factors, many of which are beyond any president's control.
If you don't like such volatility, you might want to look into reliable income plays outside the stock market — such as investing in rental properties with as little as $100 while staying completely hands-off.
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Image source: Joe Rogan Experience podcast on YouTube.
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This article 'The Country Was Thriving': Joe Rogan Says That 'More Things Were Getting Done' When Donald Trump Was President — Unemployment Was Down, Regulations Relaxed. Is He Right? originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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