Post by the Scribe on Oct 6, 2022 11:13:08 GMT
At 40%, former President Donald Trump is the only U.S. president in the past seven decades of Gallup polling with a lower approval rating than Biden heading into their first midterm election.
Despite Late Rebound, Biden Midterm Approval Barely Better than Trump
www.newsweek.com/despite-late-rebound-biden-midterm-approval-barely-better-trump-1749153
BY DANIEL BUSH ON 10/5/22 AT 11:40 AM EDT
ith five weeks left before the midterm elections, Democrats appear to have a better chance to retain control of Congress than earlier this year, when the party's agenda was stalled and the national mood was bleak with rising inflation and gas prices.
But Democrats hoping to hold onto the House and Senate in November remain saddled with an unpopular president whose job approval ratings are near an all-time low for recent presidents at this point in their first terms in office.
In a Gallup survey taken last month, just 42% of American adults approved of President Joe Biden's job performance, mirroring other recent national polls showing his approval rating mired in the mid-to-low 40s.
At 40%, former President Donald Trump is the only U.S. president in the past seven decades of Gallup polling with a lower approval rating than Biden heading into their first midterm election.
"Biden has improved over the last three months, so he's in better shape than he was," said Charles Franklin, director of the influential Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin, a battleground state with closely-watched Senate and gubernatorial elections this fall, "but he's still at a low level compared to many recent presidents."
Since the Civil War, the president's party has only gained House seats in four midterms: 1902, 1934, 1998 and 2002. The record in the Senate is more mixed, but there the president's party has only gained seats in 40% of midterm elections since 1862.
Overall between 1934 and 2018, the president's party has lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats each midterm, according to an analysis by the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Democrats in 1934 benefited from the early popularity of President Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal policies. President Bill Clinton's popularity rose ahead of the 1998 midterms as the public responded negatively to the House Republicans' impeachment investigation. President George W. Bush still had a high approval rating in 2002, shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Biden entered office with a major crisis of his own in the coronavirus pandemic, but his pledge to use the moment to unite the country and bridge partisan divides never materialized. Biden's poll numbers topped 50% for the first few months of his presidency, but they dipped in August of 2021, and have never fully recovered.
The president has seen a mini-surge in approval ratings this fall, following a flurry of legislative victories over the summer that culminated with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill packed with popular Democratic measures on climate, taxes and health care.
The accomplishments, along with the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe vs. Wade, gave Democrats new momentum, opening up the possibility the party could defy odds and hold onto control of Congress.
Democrats have a slim majority in the House, where Republicans only need to win five seats to flip control of the lower chamber. Democrats cannot afford to lose any seats to retain control of the evenly divided, 50-50 Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris controls the tie-breaking vote.
Biden's supporters argue the Inflation Reduction Act and other legislation helped turn his presidency around and gave Democrats popular policies to run on in battleground states.
"He's improved an awful lot recently," said Dave McLimans, a union leader in Chester County, Pennsylvania. "He's started getting some victories."
John Fetterman midterms
Democratic Senate candidate Lt. Governor John Fetterman greets supporters following a rally in Erie, Pennsylvania on August 12, 2022.
NATE SMALLWOOD/GETTY IMAGES
Democrats view the Senate race in Pennsylvania as a prime pickup opportunity. Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is leading in polls against Trump-endorsed celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, going into the last weeks of the race. Democrats are also running competitive Senate races in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio.
Christopher Gibbs, a former Republican county chairman in Ohio who joined the Democratic Party this year, said Democrats are benefiting by running against Trump-backed Republicans like Ohio's GOP Senate candidate J.D. Vance.
Gibbs said the race between Vance and Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan is an "opportunity to show the contrast between what the Republican Party used to be, and what it's become."
"Vance is not just an aberration," said Gibbs, who is working with a Democratic PAC to help elect Ryan. "He's one of many extremist Republicans in [states like] Arizona and Georgia."
Gibbs argues that the president's poll numbers will matter less than the races on the ground on Election Day, adding that Biden would be more popular if Republicans gave him credit for managing the economy during the pandemic and galvanizing international support for Ukraine after Russia's invasion.
"The president's done way more than he's gotten credit for," he said.
Republicans counter that the midterms will turn on the economy, and that most voters blame the big spending bills Biden and Democrats pushed through Congress for the spike in inflation and gas prices.
"He's made a series of wrong moves on the economy that have exacerbated inflation," said Allison Powers, the Republican chair of Union County, North Carolina.
The Gallup survey and other polls consistently show less than 10% of Republicans approve of Biden's job performance. His popularity with independents is also down since his first months in office, a worrying sign for Democrats running in Arizona and other states where independents make up a growing percentage of the electorate.
The president's low approval rating reflects in part the growing partisan divide in U.S. politics. Franklin said that as recently as the 1990s, it wasn't unusual for up to 30% of voters from the party out of power to approve of the president's job performance.
But he said those days are over.
"A 42% approval rating is sort of the new 50," Marquette's Franklin said, "but it's still not good for Biden" and Democrats on the ballot this fall.
"History is certainly still on the Republican side," he added.
Despite Late Rebound, Biden Midterm Approval Barely Better than Trump
www.newsweek.com/despite-late-rebound-biden-midterm-approval-barely-better-trump-1749153
BY DANIEL BUSH ON 10/5/22 AT 11:40 AM EDT
ith five weeks left before the midterm elections, Democrats appear to have a better chance to retain control of Congress than earlier this year, when the party's agenda was stalled and the national mood was bleak with rising inflation and gas prices.
But Democrats hoping to hold onto the House and Senate in November remain saddled with an unpopular president whose job approval ratings are near an all-time low for recent presidents at this point in their first terms in office.
In a Gallup survey taken last month, just 42% of American adults approved of President Joe Biden's job performance, mirroring other recent national polls showing his approval rating mired in the mid-to-low 40s.
At 40%, former President Donald Trump is the only U.S. president in the past seven decades of Gallup polling with a lower approval rating than Biden heading into their first midterm election.
"Biden has improved over the last three months, so he's in better shape than he was," said Charles Franklin, director of the influential Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin, a battleground state with closely-watched Senate and gubernatorial elections this fall, "but he's still at a low level compared to many recent presidents."
Since the Civil War, the president's party has only gained House seats in four midterms: 1902, 1934, 1998 and 2002. The record in the Senate is more mixed, but there the president's party has only gained seats in 40% of midterm elections since 1862.
Overall between 1934 and 2018, the president's party has lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats each midterm, according to an analysis by the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Democrats in 1934 benefited from the early popularity of President Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal policies. President Bill Clinton's popularity rose ahead of the 1998 midterms as the public responded negatively to the House Republicans' impeachment investigation. President George W. Bush still had a high approval rating in 2002, shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Biden entered office with a major crisis of his own in the coronavirus pandemic, but his pledge to use the moment to unite the country and bridge partisan divides never materialized. Biden's poll numbers topped 50% for the first few months of his presidency, but they dipped in August of 2021, and have never fully recovered.
The president has seen a mini-surge in approval ratings this fall, following a flurry of legislative victories over the summer that culminated with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill packed with popular Democratic measures on climate, taxes and health care.
The accomplishments, along with the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe vs. Wade, gave Democrats new momentum, opening up the possibility the party could defy odds and hold onto control of Congress.
Democrats have a slim majority in the House, where Republicans only need to win five seats to flip control of the lower chamber. Democrats cannot afford to lose any seats to retain control of the evenly divided, 50-50 Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris controls the tie-breaking vote.
Biden's supporters argue the Inflation Reduction Act and other legislation helped turn his presidency around and gave Democrats popular policies to run on in battleground states.
"He's improved an awful lot recently," said Dave McLimans, a union leader in Chester County, Pennsylvania. "He's started getting some victories."
John Fetterman midterms
Democratic Senate candidate Lt. Governor John Fetterman greets supporters following a rally in Erie, Pennsylvania on August 12, 2022.
NATE SMALLWOOD/GETTY IMAGES
Democrats view the Senate race in Pennsylvania as a prime pickup opportunity. Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is leading in polls against Trump-endorsed celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, going into the last weeks of the race. Democrats are also running competitive Senate races in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio.
Christopher Gibbs, a former Republican county chairman in Ohio who joined the Democratic Party this year, said Democrats are benefiting by running against Trump-backed Republicans like Ohio's GOP Senate candidate J.D. Vance.
Gibbs said the race between Vance and Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan is an "opportunity to show the contrast between what the Republican Party used to be, and what it's become."
"Vance is not just an aberration," said Gibbs, who is working with a Democratic PAC to help elect Ryan. "He's one of many extremist Republicans in [states like] Arizona and Georgia."
Gibbs argues that the president's poll numbers will matter less than the races on the ground on Election Day, adding that Biden would be more popular if Republicans gave him credit for managing the economy during the pandemic and galvanizing international support for Ukraine after Russia's invasion.
"The president's done way more than he's gotten credit for," he said.
Republicans counter that the midterms will turn on the economy, and that most voters blame the big spending bills Biden and Democrats pushed through Congress for the spike in inflation and gas prices.
"He's made a series of wrong moves on the economy that have exacerbated inflation," said Allison Powers, the Republican chair of Union County, North Carolina.
The Gallup survey and other polls consistently show less than 10% of Republicans approve of Biden's job performance. His popularity with independents is also down since his first months in office, a worrying sign for Democrats running in Arizona and other states where independents make up a growing percentage of the electorate.
The president's low approval rating reflects in part the growing partisan divide in U.S. politics. Franklin said that as recently as the 1990s, it wasn't unusual for up to 30% of voters from the party out of power to approve of the president's job performance.
But he said those days are over.
"A 42% approval rating is sort of the new 50," Marquette's Franklin said, "but it's still not good for Biden" and Democrats on the ballot this fall.
"History is certainly still on the Republican side," he added.