|
Post by the Scribe on Jul 9, 2021 23:19:22 GMT
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Jul 11, 2021 0:15:57 GMT
The new normal. The drought part is what makes it worse. Without water there will be a mass exodus.
Heat wave intensifies critical West Coast drought
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Jul 17, 2021 22:54:53 GMT
'It Is All Connected': Extreme Weather in the Age of Climate Change
www.yahoo.com/news/connected-extreme-weather-age-climate-142530950.html Henry Fountain and John Schwartz Sat, July 17, 2021, 7:25 AM
Soldiers of the German armed forces Bundeswehr search for flood victims in submerged vehicles on the federal highway B265 in Erftstadt, western Germany, on July 17, 2021, after heavy rains hit parts of the country, causing widespread flooding and major damage. - Rescue workers scrambled on July 17 to find survivors and victims of the devastation wreaked by the worst floods to hit western Europe in living memory, which have already left more than 150 people dead and dozens more missing. (Photo by SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP) (Photo by SEBASTIEN BOZON/AFP via Getty Images)
The images from Germany are startling and horrifying: houses, shops and streets in the picturesque cities and villages along the Ahr and other rivers violently washed away by fast-moving floodwaters.
The flooding was caused by a storm that slowed to a crawl over parts of Europe on Wednesday, dumping as much as 6 inches of rain on the region near Cologne and Bonn before finally beginning to let up Friday. There was flooding in Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland, too, but the worst impacts were in Germany, where the official death toll passed 125 on Friday and was sure to climb.
The storm was a frightening example of an extreme weather event, with some places getting a month’s worth of rain in a day. But in an era of climate change, extreme weather events are becoming more common.
Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times
The question is, how much did climate change affect this specific storm and the resulting floods?
A complete answer will have to await analyses, almost certain to be undertaken given the magnitude of the disaster, that will seek to learn if climate change made this storm more likely, and if so, by how much.
But for many scientists the trend is clear. “The answer is yes — all major weather these days is being affected by the changes in climate,” said Donald J. Wuebbles, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois.
Already studies have shown an increase in extreme downpours as the world warms, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations-backed group that reports on the science and impacts of global warming, has said that the frequency of these events will increase as temperatures continue to rise.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a researcher with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said that in studies of extreme rain events in the Netherlands, “the observed increase is stronger than we expected.”
Van Oldenborgh is one of the primary scientists with World Weather Attribution, a loose-knit group that quickly analyzes specific extreme weather events with regard to any climate-change impact. He said the group, which just finished a rapid analysis of the heat wave that struck the Pacific Northwest in late June, was discussing whether they would study the German floods.
One reason for stronger downpours has to do with basic physics: warmer air holds more moisture, making it more likely that a specific storm will produce more precipitation. The world has warmed by a little more than 1 degree Celsius (about 2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the 19th century, when societies began pumping huge amounts of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere.
For every 1 Celsius degree of warming, air can hold 7% more moisture. As a result, said Hayley Fowler, a professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University in England, “These kinds of storm events will increase in intensity.”
And although it is still a subject of debate, there are studies that suggest rapid warming in the Arctic is affecting the jet stream, by reducing the temperature difference between northern and southern parts of the Northern Hemisphere. One effect in summer and fall, Fowler said, is that the high-altitude, globe-circling air current is weakening and slowing down.
“That means the storms have to move more slowly,” Fowler said. The storm that caused the recent flooding was practically stationary, she noted. The combination of more moisture and a stalled storm system can lead to extra-heavy rains over a given area.
Kai Kornhuber, a climate scientist with the Earth Institute of Columbia University, said that his and his colleagues’ research, and papers from other scientists, drew similar conclusions about slowing weather systems. “They all point in the same direction — that the summertime mid-latitude circulation, the jet stream, is slowing down and constitutes a more persistent weather pattern” that means extreme events like heat waves and pounding rains are likely to go on and on.
Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University, has studied the effects of a different summertime jet stream phenomenon known as “wave resonance” in locking weather systems in place.
Climate change, he said, is making the stalling weather events more frequent. But he said it was premature to say that the European disaster was caused by wave resonance.
Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist with the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts, said that while dawdling weather systems can have many causes, they generally don’t occur in a vacuum.
The European storm is “part of this bigger picture of extremes we’ve been seeing all along the Northern Hemisphere this summer,” she said, include the heat in the American West and Pacific Northwest, intense rainfall and cooler temperatures in the Midwest, and heat waves in Scandinavia and Siberia.
“It’s never in isolation when it comes to an odd configuration of the jet stream,” Francis said. “One extreme in one place is always accompanied by extremes of different types.”
“It is all connected, and it’s all the same story, really,” she added.
When it comes to floods, however, there are other factors that can come into play and complicate any analysis of the influence of climate change.
For one thing, local topography has to be taken into account, as that can affect rainfall patterns and how much runoff gets into which rivers.
Human impacts can complicate an analysis even further. Development near rivers, for instance, often replaces open land, which can absorb rain, with buildings, streets and parking lots that increase the amount of water that drains into rivers. Infrastructure built to cope with heavy runoff and rising rivers may be under-designed and inadequate.
And meteorological conditions can sometimes lead to different conclusions.
A 2016 study by World Weather Attribution of flooding in France and Germany in May of that year found that climate change affected the French flooding, which was caused by three days of rain. But the situation in Germany was different; the flooding was caused by a one-day storm. The computer simulations did not find that the likelihood of shorter storms in that area had increased in a changing climate.
While some development can make flooding worse, other projects can reduce flooding. That appears to have been the case in the Netherlands, which was not as severely affected by the storm.
After several major floods on the Meuse River in the 1990s, the Dutch government began a program called Room for the River to reduce flooding, said Nathalie Asselman, who advises the government and other clients on flood risk.
The work involved lowering and widening river beds, lowering flood plains and excavating side channels. “The aim of these measures is to lower flood levels,” she said.
While a dike near the Meuse in southern Netherlands suffered a breach that caused some flooding until it was repaired on Friday, the measures appear to have worked.
Flood levels on the Meuse were about a foot lower than would have been the case without them, Asselman said. That meant smaller tributaries backed up less where they met the Meuse, producing less flooding.
“If we wouldn’t have implemented these measures, then the situation would have been worse,” she said. “Both on the main river and the tributaries.”
© 2021 The New York Times Company
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Jul 26, 2021 9:59:04 GMT
Frankly, it may be too late already. Conservatives are still in denial if only because Liberals see global warming as a grave problem. The cult of conservatism shills for the 1% and transnational corporations who do not want to spend $1 to correct the damage they have caused. Then there are other countries, also conservative that also refuse to become carbon neutral for whatever reasons. Crops everywhere are failing, hunger is rampant, pandemics thrive in hot temps and who knows what will be released from the poles as they melt. We will be forced into defense as offense is not possible anymore. Time to build that wall, guard the borders including our coasts and bring our manufacturing back from the countries the GOP and their free market scam sent them decades ago.Washington Post Amid summer of fire and floods, a moment of truth for climate actionwww.yahoo.com/news/amid-summer-fire-floods-moment-211112099.htmlSarah Kaplan and Brady Dennis Sat, July 24, 2021, 2:11 PM The panicked commuters of Zhengzhou, China, could only stand on seats and cling to poles in a desperate attempt to keep their heads above the muddy torrent this past week, as floodwaters from record-breaking rains inundated the subway system.
On the other side of the planet, in Gresham, Ore., a 61-year-old maker of handcrafted ukuleles slowly died in June as searing temperatures made an oven out of his lifelong home - one of at least 800 victims of what one scientist called "the most anomalous heat event ever observed on Earth."
Subscribe to The Post Most newsletter for the most important and interesting stories from The Washington Post.
Massive floods deluged Central Europe, Nigeria, Uganda and India in recent days, killing hundreds. June's scorching temperatures, followed by a fast-moving wildfire, erased a Canadian town. More than a million people are close to starvation amid Madagascar's worst drought in decades. In Siberia, tens of thousands of square miles of forest are ablaze, potentially unleashing carbon stored in the frozen ground below.
In Italy on Friday, a top U.N. climate official once again pleaded for the world to heed the alarm bells, reminding leaders that these catastrophes are simply the latest in a ghastly string of warnings that the planet is hurtling down a treacherous path.
"What more can numbers show us that we cannot already see? What more can statistics say about the flooding, the wildfires, the droughts and hurricanes and other deadly events?" United Nations Climate Change Executive Secretary Patricia Espinosa told a gathering of energy and environment ministers from G-20 nations. "Numbers and statistics are invaluable, but what the world requires now, more than anything else, is climate action."
This disastrous summer is yet another portent of what humanity faces in coming decades if the world does not take dramatic steps to protect ecosystems and curb use of fossil fuels, scientists say.
So far, many countries have failed to meet even the modest targets they have set for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists have repeatedly warned that the planet remains on track to exceed a critical threshold for warming within a decade, a change that will accelerate the loss of sea ice, extinction of species and a dramatic escalation of weather extremes.
Yet experts and activists believe this moment also offers a rare opportunity to change course - possibly the last such opportunity before many effects of climate change become irreversible.
Governments are poised to invest billions in economic recovery as they emerge from the coronavirus pandemic, and how that money gets spent could determine whether the world clings to its reliance on fossil fuels, or shifts in a greener direction. Nations are gearing up for a critical United Nations summit this November, aimed at putting the planet on a less perilous trajectory. Scores of leaders have pledged more ambitious climate goals in the years ahead, though the rhetoric has not yet led to concrete change.
As forests burn and cities drown, as crops wither and people die, the question looms louder than ever this summer: What will it take for leaders to finally act?
- - -
Speaking before a group of powerful senators, a NASA scientist outlined the grim reality facing the planet: Human carbon emissions had raised global average temperatures to the highest levels in recorded history. Heat waves, drought and other extreme weather were disrupting people's everyday lives.
"The greenhouse effect has been detected," James Hansen said, "and it is changing our climate now."
That was June 1988. Four years later, countries around the globe created the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC, in which they agreed to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."
Yet in the decades since, people have emitted more carbon dioxide than they did in the entire century prior. And many of the catastrophes Hansen warned about have come to pass.
"All of this is happening exactly as we have known it would happen," said Fredi Otto, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford and co-lead of the World Weather Attribution initiative.
Otto was one of the leaders of a rapid analysis of the Northwest's June heat wave, which found that the unprecedented temperatures were "virtually impossible" without human influence. Even in today's world, where global average temperatures are about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average, a heat wave of that intensity should only happen about once every 1,000 years.
But if the world exceeds 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) of warming, the scientists found, places such as Portland and Seattle could see these temperatures every five to 10 years.
"What we now think of as absolutely extreme heat waves will be normal summers," Otto said.
Otto's group is now examining recent floods in Germany and Belgium, which claimed more than 200 lives. By mid-August, they hope to quantify the extent to which climate change made the event more extreme.
Even without that data, said Hannah Cloke, a climate scientist and natural hazards researcher at the University of Reading, there is little doubt that human-caused warming played some role in the disaster. Because warm air can hold more water, climate change has increased the amount of rain that falls during storms. It's also thought that human influence has weakened the high latitude air currents that steer weather systems, leading to slow-moving storms that deluge cities for days on end.
"It's been an incredibly frustrating experience watching so very many people die in what was, to some extent, a predictable event," Cloke said.
Again and again, communities have been caught off guard by the unprecedented nature of weather disasters. Many people in Germany did not receive emergency alerts about the looming floodwaters. Others failed to grasp the danger, because the event was so unlike anything that had happened before.
"We have really left our frame of reference," Otto said. "These things are surprises because the climate we live in today has just changed very quickly."
It's not that scientists didn't predict that such events could happen, she added. Forecasts from decades-old climate models closely match the changes Earth has experienced, and these models are getting better all the time.
But climate models are designed to predict changes in averages. What is clear now is that even a relatively modest shift in global average temperature allows for a whole new range of weather extremes.
Now imagine a world with almost twice as much warming - a threshold the international community vowed to avoid when it forged the 2015 Paris accord, but one that it is still on pace to exceed.
"I very much hope people take these recent events seriously for the signals that they are," Cloke said. "We can see already what it might mean if we don't do something now."
- - -
As another summer brings another round of fires, floods, heat waves, drought and death, it has also raised the prospect that profound political changes could be unfolding, however slowly.
In recent days, the European Union introduced one of the world's most detailed blueprints to confront climate change, declaring that it would cut its net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels within a decade and become "the world's first climate-neutral continent by 2050." But the planned changes must first survive scrutiny by the bloc's 27 member states and the European Parliament.
Senate Democrats, meanwhile, earlier this month rolled out a far-reaching set of climate proposals as part of a $3.5 trillion budget deal, including measures that would allow the United States to impose a tax on nations lagging in reducing their own pollution, as well as a fee on emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas.
The proposals marked the most aggressive effort by Congress to deal with climate change and represent an attempt "to be bold enough to meet the moment," Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said at the time.
But they face a gauntlet of legal and political hurdles before they can become reality. The Democrats' narrow majority in the Senate means any proposal must win the support of moderate members whose states economically depend on producing coal, gas and oil.
A more modest infrastructure deal crafted by a coalition of Senate Democrats and Republicans includes funding for public transit, electric vehicles and projects to protect communities from climate disasters, though it omitted many of Biden's central climate initiatives, such as a commitment to make electricity carbon-free by 2035.
American Clean Power Association chief executive Heather Zichal, a former Obama climate adviser who has been part of White House meetings on the bipartisan package, acknowledged that the deal won't curb emissions as much as is needed. But it could "create political space" for the more aggressive budget proposal, she said, and possibly pave the way for further collaboration on climate.
"The challenge for all of us," Zichal added, "is how do we manage incremental progress against the backdrop of what the science is telling us we need to do?"
When world leaders gather at a key United Nations climate summit this fall in Glasgow, they are expected to show up with ambitious new pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions in coming years. Some, including the United States, have already logged new targets, ramping up what they promised in 2015 under the Paris climate accord.
But many countries remain an open question. China, by far the world's biggest greenhouse gas polluter, has said it plans to peak emissions before 2030 but faces pressure to outline more aggressive long-term policies. Others, including Russia and Brazil, have current pledges that experts say are insufficient to meaningfully alter the world's trajectory toward a warmer future.
And despite calls for a "green recovery" from the economic downturn of the coronavirus pandemic, a recent analysis by the United Nations and the University of Oxford found that just 2.6% of rescue and recovery spending by the 50 leading economies was directed toward projects, such as renewable energy infrastructure, that could end the world's reliance on fossil fuels.
Yet another mixed signal came Friday, when environment ministers from the world's largest economies departed a G-20 summit agreeing only that nations would make stronger commitments ahead of the Glasgow summit and would "strive" to deliver more ambitious long-term climate action. Activists had hoped the group, which includes the United States, Europe, China and India, would commit to specific warming targets and agree to deadlines for phasing out coal.
A 2020 study from the United Nations Environment Program found at the time that nations needed to triple their existing efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions to have a chance of limiting warming to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius - a central aim of the Paris climate agreement. By the end of this decade, scientists say, the world should cut its carbon emissions almost in half to keep its most ambitious climate goals within reach.
Achieving those cuts will require monumental social changes, such as phasing out gas-powered cars, eliminating fossil fuels as a source of electricity and overhauling how humans produce food and manage land.
As political action fails to match the pace of climate impacts, leaders are left to escalate their rhetoric once more.
"It is, without exaggeration, about survival," U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry said in a speech in London this past week.
He appealed to nations - particularly China - to overcome political hurdles and commit to drastic change.
"Cooperation," Kerry said, "is the only way to break free from the world's current mutual suicide pact."
- - -
The world's failure to curb carbon emissions has been felt first and hardest by people like Sandeep Mandal, a 27-year-old living in Dharavi, Mumbai, one of Asia's largest slums.
Earlier this month, floodwaters began pouring into his cramped, one-room home. Mandal climbed onto the table to escape the deluge and watched as some of his possessions - clothes, pillows, blankets - floated away.
"I spent the night on the table till the water subsided," he recounted. "It was very traumatic."
Mandal, who works for a nonprofit, said his home often floods during Mumbai's rainy season. But this year is the worst he has experienced. India's financial capital has seen almost four feet of rain this month - 40% more than the average for July.
Time and again, the worst impacts of warming have hit the globe's poorest nations, which often have the least capacity to respond. Studies show that more than two thirds of deaths from weather- and water-related disasters since 1970 have been in what the U.N. terms "least developed countries."
In Mumbai, an estimated 110 people have been killed in landslides and flooding triggered by the recent heavy rains. For Mandal, the death toll underscored the cost of climate change paid by those who have contributed little to the problem.
Cumulative emissions from the United States and Europe account for about half of all greenhouse gases humans have added to the atmosphere. The annual emissions from an average American are about ten times those of someone in India.
The disparities are even starker when emissions sources are broken down by wealth. According to a United Nations report, the richest 1% of the global population produces more than twice as much pollution as the poorest 50%. People whose annual income exceeds $109,000, the report said, must cut their carbon footprints by a factor of 30 to help slow global warming.
Yet the events of this summer should dispel the illusion that even the rich and powerful can insulate themselves from climate change indefinitely, experts say.
In recent weeks, New York City has seen its subways flood and its skies shrouded by smoke from far-flung wildfires. Parts of London received a month's worth of rain in a single day.
"The cry used to come from small, developing countries," said Carlos Fuller, the permanent representative of Belize to the United Nations, and former lead negotiator for a group of island nations that work as a bloc at international climate talks.
But increasingly, Fuller said, "No one is spared. So obviously, everyone has to take action now. It is all of us. We are all in the same boat . . . That is what this summer is telling us."
If there is any good to be gained from recent disasters, said Mohamed Adow, director of the African climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa, it is the prospect that the biggest historical contributors to climate change now have impetus to seek solutions.
"I had hoped that the suffering of those in Africa and other vulnerable places might have at least been enough of a warning sign for these polluting nations to act," Adow wrote in an email. "But they have ignored our plight and are beginning to see the folly of trying to ignore something with planetary consequences."
Adow said he hopes this summer of fires and floods will hasten change in the nations where change most needs to happen.
"We have such little time," he said. "If they won't heed the warning of our suffering, then maybe they will heed their own."
- - -
The Washington Post's Niha Masih in Mumbai and Dino Grandoni in Washington contributed to this report.
|
|
|
Post by chronologer on Jul 29, 2021 4:40:21 GMT
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Jul 29, 2021 10:24:20 GMT
Computer modeling leaves a lot to be desired and is only as good as what is inputted. Pragmatist that I am I think we should do whatever we can to encourage sustainability, don't add to pollution, keep the population manageable and find a reasonable nearby planet to send conservatives to live.
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Jul 30, 2021 10:56:19 GMT
As climate change worsens, extreme weather disasters pile upwww.yahoo.com/news/as-climate-change-worsens-extreme-weather-disasters-pile-up-203837389.html David Knowles·Senior Editor Tue, July 27, 2021, 1:38 PM·6 min read From record rainfall inundating cities around the world to wildfires scorching an unprecedented area to deadly heat waves that have come with unrelenting regularity to the Northern Hemisphere this summer, extreme weather linked to climate change is unfolding with frightening clarity.
"This is a direct impact of the climate crisis," John Kerry, President Biden's special envoy for climate, told CBS News regarding the startling recent string of extreme weather disasters.
With greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere continuing to rise, so too have global temperatures. Since the start of the industrial revolution, average surface temperatures have risen by 1.1 degrees Celsius, setting into motion changes to the earth's climate that are manifest in more frequent extreme weather events.
"Rising global average temperature is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns," the Environmental Protection Agency says on its website. "Scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as heat waves and large storms are likely to become more frequent or more intense with human-induced climate change."
This summer there has been no shortage of weather events that climate scientists have, at least in part, concluded were made worse by global warming. Here is a rundown of some weather events that have occurred over the last two months.
This photo taken on July 26, 2021 shows rescuers evacuating residents with a loader at a flooded area in Weihui, Xinxiang city, in China's central Henan province. - China OUT (Photo by STR / AFP) / China OUT (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)
Torrential downpours overwhelm infrastructure
As the planet warms, it is able to hold more moisture in the atmosphere. Studies have shown that for every 1 degree Celsius of warming, the atmosphere holds 7 percent more moisture. That fact helps explain the almost daily headlines about extreme downpours that have flooded cities and towns across the world in recent weeks, including this month's deluge in western Germany — 7 inches of rain in just 12 hours — that left nearly 200 people dead. news.yahoo.com/from-detroit-to-germany-to-mumbai-climate-change-is-worsening-torrential-downpours-202906091.html
Last week a storm parked itself over Zhengzhou, China, for 72 hours and dumped a year's worth of rain, killing more than 36 people and displacing a million residents due to flooding. Drivers were stuck in underground tunnels, forcing them to crawl on top of submerged cars in order to escape. Drowning deaths were also reported in the city's subway system. www.npr.org/2021/07/25/1020342822/flooding-continues-to-devastate-zhengzhou-city-in-central-china
For the second time in two weeks, extreme rainfall crippled London on Sunday, dumping a month's worth of rain in a matter of hours. That downpour flooded the subway system, closing eight stations, and inundated highways and urban areas, trapping motorists in cars and residents in their homes. www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/world/europe/london-flooding-heat.html
While monsoon rains occur every year in India, this year's rains have proved anything but ordinary. More than 164 people were reported dead this week following downpours in in the western state of Maharashtra. Houses were submerged in floodwaters, landslides were triggered and dozens of people were trapped, thanks to the worst extreme rainfall in decades.
Besides the additional moisture in the atmosphere because of rising temperatures, another common link climate researchers are studying is the way climate change is altering the jet stream. As a result of this disturbance, storm systems have been observed to move more slowly in some parts of the world, allowing for more rain to collect in given locations.
CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES - 2021/07/24: Active flames reach highway 70. The Dixie fire continues to burn in California burning over 180,000 acres with 20% containment. (Photo by Ty O'Neil/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Wildfires proliferate
While rising temperatures mean more moisture in the atmosphere, that doesn't always translate into rain across the globe. In the American West, for instance, severe drought has taken hold, and higher temperatures have further exacerbated the conditions for wildfires. news.yahoo.com/california-braces-for-another-heat-wave-as-climate-change-and-drought-take-their-toll-201054785.html
In the Western U.S., "fire season" is now 2.5 times longer than it was in the 1970s, according to the U.S. Forest Service, and in terms of the worst seasons on record, the nine largest areas burned by wildfires have all occurred since 2005.
At least 85 active fires are currently burning across the Western states, and this year's season is poised to break the record for acreage burned, which was set last year. Hazardous smoke from the blazes has blanketed communities all the way to the East Coast. news.yahoo.com/western-wildfire-smoke-blankets-new-york-with-unhealthy-air-as-climate-change-impacts-continue-to-multiply-185542603.html
In Siberia, meanwhile, more than 5,000 firefighters are battling blazes that are burning across 4.6 million acres, the largest wildfire outbreak since 2019.
Aisen Nikolaev, the leader of the northern Siberian region of Sakha, said in an interview this week that the ultimate cause behind the dramatic uptick in wildfires in the area was not a mystery. www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/07/20/climate-change-is-main-cause-of-siberias-wildfires-regional-head-says-a74569
“Obviously, there is only one reason: Global climate change,” Nikolaev said. “We can see how it’s getting hotter in [Sakha] every year. We are living through the hottest, driest summer in the history of meteorological measurements since the end of the 19th century.”
Wildfires have also forced people to evacuate their homes in Southern Europe, including the Italian island of Sardinia. More than 7,500 firefighters were deployed to fight large blazes on the island, and more than 1,000 people were evacuated.
In Greece, heat waves have helped worsen wildfires this year, and above-average temperatures are expected to raise the threat even further in the coming days.
"I want to emphasize that August remains a difficult month. Meteorologists are already warning us that from the end of next week we may face another big prolonged heat wave. That is why it is important for all of us, all the state services, to be on absolute alert, until the firefighting period is formally over," Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said at a Monday Cabinet meeting, CNN reported. www.cnn.com/2021/07/27/europe/southern-europe-wildfires-sardinia-intl/index.html
BARCELONA, SPAIN - 2021/07/18: A tourist is seen covering her head from the sun and heat in the museum area of Montjüic mountain. According to the State Meteorological Agency (AE.MET), an increase in temperatures is expected in Catalonia. For Barcelona the warning will be at an orange level with temperatures between 30 and 39 degrees centigrade. (Photo by Paco Freire/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Heat wave after heat wave
In the wake of the brutal heat wave that roasted much of the Pacific Northwest and Canada, studies have shown that as climate change continues to worsen, heat waves will become more commonplace. We already know that the number of record high temperatures is outpacing the number of record low temperatures by a ratio of 2:1. Computer models have shown that that disparity will grow to 20:1 by 2050 and to 50:1 by 2100. news.yahoo.com/thanks-to-climate-change-heat-waves-and-record-temperatures-in-the-pacific-northwest-may-become-commonplace-193838495.html
Backing that finding up, “the 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 2005, and 7 of the 10 have occurred just since 2014,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says on its website. The agency has also found that global temperatures are currently rising at a rate of 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade, much faster than had been previously thought. www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature
With millions of Americans expected to be subjected to triple-digit temperatures in the coming days, heat deaths are also expected to rise. The heat dome that descended over the Pacific Northwest is blamed in the deaths of nearly 200 people across the region. Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of death in the U.S., according to the National Weather Service.
Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich, is the lead author of a new study that confirms we can expect a greater number of deadly heat waves as temperatures continue to rise. www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01092-9
"The main message is that we need to prepare for more record heat events in the coming decades that shatter previous record temperatures by large margins," Fischer told Axios.
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Jul 30, 2021 10:59:20 GMT
Climate Change triggering extreme weather events across the world
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Jul 30, 2021 14:20:42 GMT
Homes lose water as wells run dry in drought-ravaged basin news.yahoo.com/trying-survive-wells-dry-amid-131601707.html GILLIAN FLACCUS and NATHAN HOWARD Thu, July 29, 2021, 6:16 AM
Californians scramble for fresh water as taps, wells run dry
North America drought: As wildfires rage, farmers are running out of water | DW News
Families running out of water due to drought
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Aug 1, 2021 8:05:19 GMT
Climate Migration Is Already Here And It's Going To Get Worse podcasts.podinstall.com/wgbh-innovation-hub/202107160800-climate-migration-already-here-and-its-going-get-worse.html Innovation Hub A migration crisis is already underway, and it's caused, at least in large part, by climate change, according to modeling by ProPublica and the New York Times Magazine. Their expert analysis shows that without the proper preparation and political will, it will worsen as soon as 2050. Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of Geosciences and International Affairs at Princeton University, explains how the increasingly deadly combination of heat and humidity is driving people from their homelands. He predicts greater migratory build-ups along the US-Mexico border, in Southeast Asia, and on North Africa’s Mediterranean coast.
Even if we develop a strong response now, a “lack of foresight,” he argues, has brought us to our current reality: a certain level of climate change is already baked into the system for the next 30 years. Oppenheimer says governments must restructure their thinking around climate change to focus not just on emissions, but also extreme weather response.
Plus, we hear from three local reporters at our affiliate stations about the environmental challenges facing their cities. Houston Public Media’s Katie Watkins, WJCT’s Brendan Rivers in Jacksonville and KJZZ’s Ron Dungan in Phoenix, join us to discuss droughts, flooding, land use, and more.
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Aug 5, 2021 16:56:00 GMT
Atlantic Ocean currents weaken, signalling big weather changes - studywww.yahoo.com/news/atlantic-ocean-currents-weaken-signalling-150357535.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink
General view shows the Atlantic ocean near the road between Saint-Jean-De-Luz and Hendaye, in Socoa, France Nina Chestney Thu, August 5, 2021, 8:03 AM·2 min read By Nina Chestney
LONDON (Reuters) - The Atlantic Ocean's current system, an engine of the Northern Hemsiphere's climate, could be weakening to such an extent that it could soon bring big changes to the world's weather, a scientific study said on Thursday.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents which transports warm water from the tropics northwards into the North Atlantic.
As the atmosphere warms due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, the surface ocean beneath retains more of heat. A potential collapse of the system could have severe consequences for the world's weather systems.
Climate models have shown that the AMOC is at its weakest in more than a 1,000 years. However, it has not been known whether the weakening is due to a change in circulation or it is to do with the loss of stability.
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, said the difference is crucial.
"The loss of dynamical stability would imply that the AMOC has approached its critical threshold, beyond which a substantial and in practice likely irreversible transition to the weak mode could occur," said Niklas Boers at the Potstdam Insitute for Climate Impact Research and author of the study.
By analysing the sea-surface temperature and salinity patterns of the Atlantic Ocean, the study said the weakening of the last century is likely to be associated with a loss of stability.
"The findings support the assessment that the AMOC decline is not just a fluctuation or a linear response to increasing temperatures but likely means the approaching of a critical threshold beyond which the circulation system could collapse," Boers said.
If the AMOC collapsed, it would increase cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, sea level rise in the Atlantic, an overall fall in precipitation over Europe and North America and a shift in monsoons in South America and Afria, Britain's Met Office said.
Other climate models have said the AMOC will weaken over the coming century but that a collapse before 2100 is unlikely.
(Reporting by Nina Chestney; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Aug 6, 2021 23:34:40 GMT
Scientists fear a critical Atlantic Ocean system might collapse, triggering 'extreme cold' and sea level risewww.yahoo.com/news/scientists-fear-critical-atlantic-ocean-214801130.html Brigid Kennedy, Contributing Writer Thu, August 5, 2021, 2:48 PM MST
Ocean. MATEUSZ SLODKOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images
Scientists are worried the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a "critical aquatic conveyer belt" that drives currents in the Atlantic Ocean, is at risk of near-complete collapse due to climate change, The Washington Post reports.
A shutdown of the crucial circulation system could "bring extreme cold to Europe and parts of North America, raise sea levels along the U.S. East Coast, and disrupt seasonal monsoons that provide water to much of the world," the Post reports. The effects, in short, would be devastating.
"The mere possibility that the AMOC tipping point is close should be enough for us to take countermeasures," warns Levke Caesar, a climate physicist at Maynooth University.
Scientists previously believed the AMOC would in fact weaken this century, but didn't imagine total collapse within the next 300 years except in absolute worst-case warming scenarios. Now, according to a new study, that critical threshold "is most likely much closer than we would have expected," said Niklas Boers, the study's author and a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Any exact date, however, is still unknown. www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4.epdf?sharing_token=cr0niAE4qAJghFEIEMdvX9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0ODQw4Na6S4LwvIIwjZ_S3NdBoG6pi8c5NBfIwoUKp1VK_OHHszXMnB3OMoyz8L8emOhG-hoDsJyn1YMubz_IampYbIRg_8P9vjnfIPPzRQwm6m9BfwEGfoLu0JsB4E2trSfyu4r947mOz1oZQlyxQxNflKS8iRVoDN9ZT3xtxGDO-CFUfNwKFILl7A3TMCG6w%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com
It would take years of monitoring and data collection to officially confirm the AMOC slowdown, but there is a degree of "jeopardy" associated with waiting for that proof, scientists say. Besides, possible consequences, like a "cold blob" in the ocean south of Greenland, are already being felt.
Frighteningly, if the system does devastatingly shut down, the switch off would be irreversible in human lifetimes. "It's one of those events that should not happen, and we should try all that we can to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible," said Boers. "This is a system we don't want to mess with." Read more at The Washington Post.
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Aug 9, 2021 9:03:57 GMT
USA TODAY When turning on faucets is a source of stress: Climate change shapes where Americans relocatewww.yahoo.com/finance/news/turning-faucets-source-stress-climate-040103089.html Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy, USA TODAY Wed, August 4, 2021, 10:31 AM
Though there is no clear data about how many Americans have moved because of climate-related trends such as wildfires, heat waves, drought and hurricanes, there are signs that people may be weighing these risks when purchasing a home.
Will climate change prompt moves? Nearly half (49%) of respondents say they plan to move in the next year, blaming extreme temperatures and the increasing frequency or intensity of natural disasters, according to a survey commissioned this year by real estate website Redfin. The survey involved 2,000 U.S. residents contacted from Feb. 25 to March 1.
Based on that insight, Redfin will announce Tuesday that it is adding local climate risk data to its site, the company told USA TODAY exclusively.
Redfin will integrate data from ClimateCheck, a startup that lets people access climate data using any address in the USA. Homebuyers who want to understand the risk of fire, heat, drought and storms will be able to see a rating from 0-100 associated with the county, city, ZIP code and neighborhood of the home they're considering. On the scale, 0 indicates very low risk and 100 indicates very high risk of climate-related hazards for the home compared with others in the USA through the year 2050, a period within the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage signed today.
Previously, the site displayed only flood risk data.
Though climate change poses an increasingly large risk of higher insurance costs or displacement for homeowners, affordability and personal preferences have dictated homebuying decisions, economists say.
Are savings worth the risk? “One of the reasons people haven't been considering climate change when buying a home up to this point is because they don't have the information in front of them,” says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “Am I willing to buy a home that's maybe 10% cheaper but has a 10-point higher flood risk?
The average summer temperature in San Antonio has risen by 3.5 degrees since the 1970s, and the number of days each year when temperatures hit 100 degrees or more has climbed from one in 1970 to 25 in 2020, according to an analysis based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data by Climate Central, a science organization based in New Jersey.
High risk, higher population growth As temperatures rise, the probability of wildfires has increased in some regions.
Cal Inman, CEO of ClimateCheck, says people deserve to be informed about the current and future risk of wildfire. The six counties most at risk for wildfires are among the fastest-growing counties in the country, according to an analysis by ClimateCheck. Those fire-prone areas are in California, Idaho, Utah and Washington.
Inman, of ClimateCheck, says he wanted all the great research from the government and universities accessible to anyone buying a home.
“I don't think people are factoring climate risk into the decision-making the way they do price point, proximity to work, proximity to school,” he says. “We’re just trying to arm the consumer with one more data point to make a decision about where to live.”
Matthew Kahn, professor of economics at the University of Southern California and author of “Climatopolis,” says regions that make smart decisions through good public policy will eventually win out.
“Those places that, either due to God or good public policy, are better able to adapt to Mother Nature's punches and coach themselves to be more livable will be rewarded with a larger tax base as more people in jobs move there,” he says.
“If consumers have more information about the climate risks they could face before they purchase a home, they’re less likely to regret their choices,” he says.
You can leave, but can you escape?
For the Warrens, the Portland family, natural disasters seem unavoidable.
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Aug 9, 2021 9:52:32 GMT
Climate change IPCC report is 'code red for humanity', UN scientists say - BBC News 1,314 viewsAug 9, 2021
BBC News 10.5M subscribers Heating from humans has caused irreparable damage to the Earth that may get worse in coming decades, a UN climate report has concluded.
Humanity's damaging impact on the climate is a "statement of fact", UN scientists have found in unprecedented research combining more than 14,000 studies.
The past five years have been the hottest on record since 1850. Extremes including heatwaves have become more frequent and more intense since the 1950s, while cold events have become less frequent and less severe.
The authors also show that a rise in sea levels approaching 2m by the end of this century "cannot be ruled out".
Please subscribe HERE bit.ly/1rbfUog
#BBCNews #ClimateChange
|
|
|
Post by the Scribe on Aug 9, 2021 12:03:43 GMT
As long as CONservatives are in power and are able to stop advances against climate change things will only get worse. CHANGE and ACCOUNTABILITY is NOT in their vocabulary. The CONservative governments of China and Russia are even worse. The BEST we can do is to prepare for the changes if we cannot rid ourselves of this tyranny from the minority. With Senators like Manchin and Sinema who claim to be Democrats and are enabling RepubliCONS our days are truly numbered.
|
|